Coalition to press attack--and hope for snow

The Taliban has said there will be no winter lull. The coalition has said there will be no winter lull. The Afghan army has said there will be no winter lull.

Expect a winter lull.

Operating in mountainous and remote areas is difficult in winter, whatever your strategy and whatever your resources. Already the frequency of attacks has dropped significantly, and colder weather is yet to come.

Should the Taliban seek to press the attack, however, colder weather favors coalition and Afghan forces, who have better mobility and are backed by airlifts. For this reason, we may see the Taliban direct their efforts toward guerrilla tactics within urban areas in the coming months.

Afghan Army to Strike Taliban in Winter
DUBAI, Nov 19 (AP) By Jim Krane-- The U.S.-backed Afghan army will step up counter-Taliban offensives this winter, which could see heavy fighting during a period traditionally used by Afghan fighters for rest and resupply, a U.S. general said here Sunday.

U.S. Army Brig. Gen. Douglas Pritt, who oversees the U.S.-led effort to train the Afghan military, said Afghan forces have tripled the number of forward bases to more than 60 and plan to spend the winter harassing Taliban and gathering intelligence from combat outposts deep inside rebel strongholds.

"They're much better equipped for winter operations than the Taliban. I'm hoping for a lot of snow this winter," Pritt said during a visit to The Associated Press bureau in Dubai.

Image: U.S. Marines conduct a patrol in Khowst-Gardez Pass, Dec. 30, 2004. DoD photo by Cpl. James L. Yarboro

Pritt said most Afghan troops that have emerged from training still cannot operate independently, but he noted that five battalions of Afghan National Army troops, numbering 300 to 600 soldiers each, were nearly ready to mount offensives on their own. But even those top battalions will continue to operate in tandem with U.S. and NATO troops, he said.

Afghanistan's winters normally bring months of rain and snow, turning dusty roads into impassable muck and rendering most warfare impossible. The country has traditionally seen winter breaks in its decades of conflict, where fighters return home to families or hunker down on bases until fighting resumes in spring.

Snowfall is already hampering Taliban supply lines, making it tougher for the rebels to resupply, Pritt said. The Afghan National Army, backed by U.S. and NATO airlifts, are less restricted by cold and mud.

Afghan troops are being readied for "extended patrols" in the combat zones of the east and south that border Pakistan. "We want to be in the right places," he said. "If the Taliban is trying to rearm, refit and wait out the winter, then we'll know they're there."