Perception and misperception in Afghanistan

In their recent NY Times op-ed "The Wars of Perception", co-authors Dominic Johnson and Dominic Tierney  (a cosmic convergence, to be sure) note that Tet and Somalia, which have gone down as two of the great American post-war defeats, were in fact successes masquerading as failures. The Dominics draw analogies to Iraq, but I would say the lesson is much more applicable to Afghanistan. Unlike Iraq, a lot is going right there. Much of the nation remains stable, and even the recent wave of insurgent activity in the south and east has--almost without exception--resulted in the rout of Taliban forces.

Nevertheless, operations are  recounted with pessimism and insurgent casualty figures are lumped in with those of Afghan and coalition forces (the frequently echoed figure of 1,500 dead this year is comprised mostly of insurgents...)

Now this is not to say that the increase in insurgent activity--and particularly the importation of suicide bombings and other tactics from Iraq--is not a foreboding sign, or to imply that all is going well. But a judicious measuring of gains and losses is in order. In leaping to conclusions about "another Vietnam" we risk another Somalia--in which a largely successful mission is marked an unmitigated disaster (with grave repercussions for the starving Somalis, the butchered Rwandans, and countless others.)

                                                                                            Image: Alex Nabaum

The Wars of Perception
(NYT op-ed), Nov 26. By DOMINIC JOHNSON and DOMINIC TIERNEY: In January 1968, Americans turned on their televisions to find scenes of chaos and carnage as Vietnamese communists unleashed their surprise Tet offensive. It would go down in history as the greatest American battlefield defeat of the cold war...Except that, remarkably, Tet and Somalia were not defeats...

Chirac seeks Afghan Nato role for Iran

The Financial Times reports today that "France will on Tuesday propose that Iran be invited to join a "contact group" of countries and multilateral institutions to co-ordinate Nato's peacekeeping mission in Afghanistan."  US officials gave a "guarded response," but this must have some folks in Washington apoplectic...

What are NATO's goals in Afghanistan?

The Financial Times opines today that the Riga summit has "the makings of a small disaster" but that can be salvaged by refocusing on the alliances most pressing priority: Afghanistan. The FT argues that in addition to more troops, leaders must figure out what they're trying to achieve, and that "the strategy for the Afghanistan mission -- to help the government of President Hamid Karzai extend its authority -- is too broad brush to be useful."

Nietzsche once wrote that "the most fundamental form of human stupidity is forgetting what we were trying to do in the first place." As the FT notes, the current strategy "does not sufficiently indicate what kind of end state Nato is seeking to achieve or how long its troops will remain." The problem, of course, is that there are significant differences between the allies on each of these issues--differences that won't be resolved at Riga.

Afghanistan mission
Nov 28 (Financial Times), Editorial: ...The vagueness of the strategy also helps explain the huge difference in each Nato contingent's operations - from the British who have taken the fight to Taliban-infested badlands, to the Dutch, who have focused more on reconstruction, to the Germans, seemingly averse to any combat at all. Nato leaders should set out some clear, achievable goals that would fall far short of establishing Afghanistan as a western style democracy but would leave it a more stable place...

U.S.-Afghan Business Matchmaking Opportunities

I learned today from the  Afghan-American Chamber of Commerce (AACC) that three company representatives who had planned to attend the U.S.-Afghan Business Matchmaking Conference were unable to attend because of visa issues. The AACC is helping them identify U.S. companies and organizations interested in meeting with them. If you are interested in "obtaining perspectives on developments in the Afghan economy from Afghan companies working on the ground" you can set up a meeting with these individuals by emailing mnawabi@a-acc.org or calling (202) 436-1400.  Continue reading for short company profiles and their availability...

Independent: NATO reinforcements "unlikely"

The Independent reports that "heads of the alliance's 26 nations are unlikely to agree to send reinforcements to Afghanistan--dealing a blow to Tony Blair's hopes that others will take up more of the increasingly heavy burden" but that the alliance is "hoping for progress on one of the main problems facing commanders in the field: restrictions placed by national capitals on the use of their troops."

Nato urged to plan Afghanistan exit strategy as violence soars
Nov 27 (The Independent) By Stephen Castle in Brussels and Kim Sengupta in Kabul: Nato's fragile unity over Afghanistan has begun to crack ahead of an important summit - with one public call to discuss an exit strategy from the Allied forces' bloody confrontation with the Taliban. While heads of government are to make a show of unity over Afghanistan at tomorrow's alliance summit in Riga, Belgium's Defence Minister has questioned the future of Nato's most important mission...

2006 Riga Papers available

In preparation for the Riga summit, the German Marshall Fund has released five original policy papers it commissioned with the theme of  "Transforming NATO in a New Global Era."

The five Riga Papers are summarized below...

One solution for NATO: Think Bigger

Ivo Daalder, blogging at TPM cafe, notes that "You're forgiven if you had failed to notice this, but the original reason for Bush's trip abroad this week was to meet up with the 25 other NATO leaders..." One reason that so many of them "seem to be determined to get in and out of Riga, Latvia, without leaving much a trace" is that Bush, Blair and Chirac are all political lame-ducks, so little of substance is expected. Daalder believes this is just the chance for NATO to "think bigger and more globally":

Global Challenges for NATO, Nov 27, by Ivo Daalder and James Goldgeier:...Political paralysis at home affects what NATO can do abroad.  As its leaders meet, they confront the specter of failure in the Alliance’s biggest and most important military operation in Afghanistan...NATO took on this mission, knowing that it would be difficult and require extraordinary effort.  Unfortunately, it hasn’t provided the means necessary to succeed. Some countries have failed to provide even the troops and capabilities promised, while others have placed such severe restrictions on what their forces can do and where they can be deployed that their presence is practically useless.  Yet, even with a full complement of troops and without national “caveats” on what these forces can do, the operation will likely fail without a much greater effort by the Alliance members.  Unfortunately, with the United States mired in Iraq and European militaries stretched thin, the Alliance may have bitten off more than it can chew. 

There is a temptation in some circles to believe that NATO should think smaller — and once again focus its efforts on the core mission of securing Europe. . .But the threats all of the Alliance members face today are global, not regional.  Whether it is terrorism or weapons proliferation or failing states, the main challenges confronting Europe and the United States stem from beyond the north Atlantic region. That, after all, is why NATO is in Afghanistan.

So rather than thinking smaller and more regionally, NATO must think bigger and more globally. It must develop a strategy that meets these global challenges head on. NATO needs to develop and procure military capabilities that will enable it to project military power over great distances and at rapid speed. And it must enhance its collective capacity to operate globally by endorsing President Bush’s proposal to create a global partnership with other democratic countries, like Japan, Australia, and South Korea. Indeed, these non-European democracies should down the road be invited to join the Alliance as full members...

AUDIO: All things considered with Eikenberry

Michele Norris talks with Eikenberry about the campaign for Afghanistan:

 All Things Considered, November 20, 2006 · Afghanistan has seen a recent Taliban resurgence in certain areas. Lt. Gen. Karl Eikenberry, commander of Combined Forces Command in Afghanistan, says the challenge right now is to continue strengthening the Afghan government so it's able to deal with the Taliban. "The challenge has been one of not dealing with a strong enemy," Eikenberry says. "It's that there is a weak state."

Coalition to press attack--and hope for snow

The Taliban has said there will be no winter lull. The coalition has said there will be no winter lull. The Afghan army has said there will be no winter lull.

Expect a winter lull.

Operating in mountainous and remote areas is difficult in winter, whatever your strategy and whatever your resources. Already the frequency of attacks has dropped significantly, and colder weather is yet to come.

Should the Taliban seek to press the attack, however, colder weather favors coalition and Afghan forces, who have better mobility and are backed by airlifts. For this reason, we may see the Taliban direct their efforts toward guerrilla tactics within urban areas in the coming months.

Afghan Army to Strike Taliban in Winter
DUBAI, Nov 19 (AP) By Jim Krane-- The U.S.-backed Afghan army will step up counter-Taliban offensives this winter, which could see heavy fighting during a period traditionally used by Afghan fighters for rest and resupply, a U.S. general said here Sunday.

U.S. Army Brig. Gen. Douglas Pritt, who oversees the U.S.-led effort to train the Afghan military, said Afghan forces have tripled the number of forward bases to more than 60 and plan to spend the winter harassing Taliban and gathering intelligence from combat outposts deep inside rebel strongholds.

"They're much better equipped for winter operations than the Taliban. I'm hoping for a lot of snow this winter," Pritt said during a visit to The Associated Press bureau in Dubai.

Image: U.S. Marines conduct a patrol in Khowst-Gardez Pass, Dec. 30, 2004. DoD photo by Cpl. James L. Yarboro

Senate testimony: violence doubled in 2006

General Michael Maples, who directs the Defense Intelligence Agency and is America's top military defense officer, this week testified to the Senate Armed Services Committee that "Despite having absorbed heavy combat losses in 2006, the insurgency has strengthened its capabilities and influence with its core base of Pashtun communities." 

"Violence this year is likely to be twice as high as the violence level seen in 2005 ... In 2007, insurgents are likely to sustain their use of more visible, aggressive and lethal tactics."

Video: Canadians in a Helmand firefight

We see a lot more combat footage coming out of Iraq than Afghanistan, but this video is a reminder that coalition partners (especially Canadians & Brits) are engaged on a nearly-daily basis in close combat engagements.

According to the poster, it depicts"Troops from Alpha Company, 2nd Platoon, "Red Devils" from Edmonton, Canada are ambushed as they conducted battle damage assessment in the village on July 15, 2006 in Sangin, Helmand Province in southern Afghanistan." Copyright: Scott Kesterson

Watch the video here. It's intense footage, especially in the last frame: all drops quiet, the soldier lights a cigarette, and you can see his hands are still shaking.

Nine Companies Bid for Copper Exploration Rights

The government of Afghanistan has said that it will select a bidder within 4-5 months and that the process will be transparent. Read Afghanistan Watch's analysis of Afghanistan's copper resources here.

Afghan gov't accepts bids from 9 foreign companies to explore cooper mine
Nov 15, 2006 (Xinhua): The Afghan government has accepted bid documents from nine foreign companies to explore the Ainak deposit containing huge copper reserves, daily newspapers Outlook said on Wednesday...a total of 13 foreign companies had submitted bid documents, and the government chose nine in the first run, among which are companies from China, Russia, Canada, the United States, Australia, Kazakhstan and India.

With an estimated 12 million tones of copper, the Ainak deposit is believed as one of the biggest copper reservoirs, according to Adil. A World Bank analysis indicated the Ainak copper production could capture as much as 2 percent of the annual world market, as well as vast coal deposits and many other deposits that could spur major development.

On vice and virtue

The BBC reported yesterday that "Pakistan's North West Frontier Province (NWFP) has passed a bill setting up a Taliban-style department under a cleric to enforce Islamic morality." The provincial governor cannot veto it a second time, though it may face a challenge by the Supreme Court. In any case, the impact is unclear since "the wording of the bill has been deliberately left vague and therefore open to different interpretations."

The NWFP move comes several months after Afghanistan's cabinet approved the Ministry of Vice and Virtue--albeit in a very different form from that the existed under the Taliban.  As one source puts it, the Ministry may well be an attempt to "walk the tightrope between the turban and the Armani suit" by offering an escape valve for Afghan anger toward imported vices...Read on for an excerpt from an article by Aunohita Mojumdar... 

Is the ISI providing tactical information to the Taliban?

Seth Jones of RAND says he has "clear indications from intelligence sources" that they are providing more direct support than is widely believed: "Information is being passed from the ISI to Taliban units about movements of US and NATO forces, in some cases very tactical information."

• For more on Jones, read his excellent article "Averting Failure in Afghanistan"in the Journal Survival (text not available online.)

Al Qaeda leader arrested by US and Afghan forces

Yesterday a provincial police chief confirmed reports that a senior al-Qaida member was among the four men captured last week near Khost.

The Pakistani daily, The News, reported that the catch included Abu Nasir al-Qahtani who escaped from Bagram in an embarrassing incident last July. Neither coalition nor Afghan forces confirmed if al Qahtani was among them. "What I can tell you is that he is an important al-Qaida member," said Mohammad Ayub, the provincial police chief.

Security Council Delegation Arrives in Kabul

“We come to Afghanistan with a message of support for the Afghan people and their democratically elected government.”

    -Japanese Ambassador Kenzo Oshima head of a UN Security Council delegation.

The delegation includes representatives from Argentina, Denmark, France, Greece, Qatar, the Russian Federation, Slovakia, the UK and the USA.

Asia Foundation 2006 Survey Available

Today the Asia Foundation released their 2006 survey, the largest and most-comprehensive poll in Afghanistan's history. Check out the .pdf here.

We will dig into the data in coming posts, but here are some preliminary findings to note:

• Afghans are still optimistic, with 44 % saying the country is headed in the right direction vs. 21 who believe it's headed in the wrong direction. These numbers, however, are much lower than the Foundation's 2004 survey, which found 64% positive about the country's direction.
• In a development that may come as a surprise to security-conscious Western observers, "lack of security was not the most decisive factor for shaping the opinion of those who felt the country was not moving in the right direction. Rather, the bad economy, lack of reconstruction, poor government performance, and unemployment were cited as the reasons for their pessimism." This is a reminder that security concerns are region-specific, and in many places security is seen as a reason the country is moving in the right direction.
• An remarkably strong majority said they trusted the Afghan National Army (87%) and the Afghan National Police (86%)--which made them the most trusted institutions, outpolling predictable scapegoats such as militias, parties, and the justice system, but also NGOs (57%)

How will Rumsfeld's departure affect Afghanistan?

President Bush today announced the resignation of Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld. Conventional wisdom is that Rumsfeld's departure effects Iraq policy much more than Afghanistan policy. As Col. Tom Collins, U.S. military spokesman in Afghanistan, said today: "The global war on terror continues in Afghanistan, and for the troops here, there's really no change in their day-to-day job."

But is this conventional wisdom correct? Rumsfeld was the architect of an innovative way of  war, first tested in Afghanistan in 2001: overwhelming air-power combined with a sparse ground presence. While United States strategy has gone through several iterations since then, today's force posture remains consistent with Rumsfeld's initial goals of defeating Taliban and AQ without becoming entangled in a peacekeeping mission.

Will the mission change at all with the departure of its architect? What role, if any, will Rumsfeld's departure have on Coalition and NATO operations? Eager to hear your comments...

NATO to EU: The goal is wide open

According to a Reuter's story, NATO singled out the EU for greater engagement at a conference it hosted Wednesday on coordinating reconstruction and security. "Particularly the EU has a great opportunity to make a significant and very timely difference in the area of the judiciary and the police," NATO's top civilian representative in Afghanistan, Ambassador Daan Everts, told a news conference. "The goal is wide open. They just have to kick the ball," he said.

What was the US role in Bajaur strikes?

Videos shown to journalists by Pakistani military officials on Tuesday suggest that US surveillence technology and precision munitions were used in Monday's major strike against suspected militants in Bajaur (see map). 

The US role against militants in Pakistan November 2 (BBC News), By Aamer Ahmed Khan, Islamabad: Monday's aerial attack on a seminary in Pakistan's tribal area of Bajaur that killed 80 people has again triggered a debate about who is actually carrying out such attacks. President Musharraf's opponents, led by the country's religious leadership, are insisting that the latest strike was carried out by US forces based in neighbouring Afghanistan. Military officials have strongly rubbished such assertions, claiming it to be a "purely Pakistani operation"...A day after this Monday's strike on Bajaur, Pakistani military officials gave a select group of journalists in Islamabad a background briefing on the "evidence" that had led to the strike. Journalists, who attended that briefing, say they were shown photographs and videos of people "involved in rigorous physical exercises as early as 4 o'clock in the morning". These were infrared images apparently shot from spy planes that are not known to be owned or operated by the Pakistan army...According to one senior official, if an operation involves US surveillance technology and advanced precision weaponry provided by the US, then who actually pulled the trigger is of academic interest only.

Photo: AP

New Crisis Group report: countering the insurgency

The International Crisis Group has just released its latest report: Countering Afghanistan’s Insurgency: No Quick Fixes. Read the report in pdf format here.

Here is an excerpt from the executive summary:

The desire for a quick, cheap war followed by a quick, cheap peace is what has brought Afghanistan to the present, increasingly dangerous situation. It has to be recognized that the armed conflict will last many years but the population needs to be reassured now that there is a clear political goal of an inclusive state. Actions to fight the insurgency must be based on and enforce the rule of law with priority given to the reform of the police and judiciary. Short-term measures such as reliance on ill-trained and poorly disciplined militias, harsh, ad hoc anti-terrorism legislation and discredited power brokers from past eras will only undermine the long-term goal of building sustainable institutions. Political strategy talk seems to focus increasingly on making a deal with the Taliban. That is a bad idea. The key to restoring peace and stability to Afghanistan is not making concessions to the violent extremists but meeting the legitimate grievances of the population – who for the most part have eagerly supported democratization.

Crisis Group’s detailed recommendations for the Afghan government include steps to stem corruption (including asset disclosure by governors), improve reconciliation and e
xpand exchanges with Pakistan (both civil and military Tripartite Commission.) It emphasizes the importance of police reform, and describes how pushing forward changes in pay and rank as well as in accountability standards would improve performance.

Detailed recommendations to donor governments focus on "due process" for senior appointments and in police reform and call for the embedding substantial numbers of police trainers in every province. Donors should also boost funding for the judicial sector, the Provincial Councils and the National Assembly committees. It calls on NATO to “publicly release monthly figures on militant incursions from Pakistan,” pass to Afghan authorities all information on narcotics, and to “remove national caveats that impede interoperability.”  On first review, the report looks excellent: read its recommendations here and comment in the forums...

Rep. Lantos: bolster Afghan efforts

The Wall St. Journal reports today that "A Democratic majority could also seek to put more attention back on Afghanistan, which many view as central to the battle against terrorism. They are likely to urge Mr. Bush to devote more effort and money to assuring that early gains there don't wither away."

Sure enough, Tom Lantos, set to become Chair of the House International Relations Committee if House control swings to the Democrats, has just called for more troops (though it seems he means from U.S. allies) and for bolstering "our faltering reconstruction efforts":

"General David Richards, who leads NATO's contingent of 31,000 in Afghanistan -- including some 13,000 U.S. troops under his command -- has now plainly stated that he needs substantially more fighting men and women in Afghanistan to win...

Photo: Tom Lantos, D-CA

Neumann on Musa Qala, Karzai on Taliban talks, and US buys local water

  CSIS's PCR Project on Afghanistan is tracking these stories, among others, this week:

• A rare rift between the U.S. and the British emerged this week as U.S. Ambassador Ronald Neumann expressed “a lot of nervousness” about the British tribal deal and subsequent withdrawal from Musa Qala, Helmand.
  
• President Karzai has, for the first time, said that he is willing to talk to Taliban leader Mullah Mohammad Omar and commander Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, a major Taliban supporter. Their dissimilar responses confirm that the insurgency is not monolithic. . .
• Beginning this week, the U.S.-led coalition of 10,000 soldiers not under NATO command will purchase its drinking water from an Afghan-based bottling plant.

Picnic site or terrorist hideout? It's BOTH!

Christina Lamb of London's Sunday Times reports from Tora Bora that efforts are underway to transform bin Laden's former redoubt into a tourist destination. Nangahar governor Gul Agha Sherzai, rarely accused of being the sharpest knife in the pantry, had this sparkling insight:

“I don’t just want one Tora Bora hotel...I want three or four. Long before anyone had heard of Osama, Tora Bora was known as a picnic spot and now it can be both.”

Anyone remember that classic Saturday Night Live skit with Gilda Radner and Dan Akroyd?