Perception and misperception in Afghanistan

In their recent NY Times op-ed "The Wars of Perception", co-authors Dominic Johnson and Dominic Tierney  (a cosmic convergence, to be sure) note that Tet and Somalia, which have gone down as two of the great American post-war defeats, were in fact successes masquerading as failures. The Dominics draw analogies to Iraq, but I would say the lesson is much more applicable to Afghanistan. Unlike Iraq, a lot is going right there. Much of the nation remains stable, and even the recent wave of insurgent activity in the south and east has--almost without exception--resulted in the rout of Taliban forces.

Nevertheless, operations are  recounted with pessimism and insurgent casualty figures are lumped in with those of Afghan and coalition forces (the frequently echoed figure of 1,500 dead this year is comprised mostly of insurgents...)

Now this is not to say that the increase in insurgent activity--and particularly the importation of suicide bombings and other tactics from Iraq--is not a foreboding sign, or to imply that all is going well. But a judicious measuring of gains and losses is in order. In leaping to conclusions about "another Vietnam" we risk another Somalia--in which a largely successful mission is marked an unmitigated disaster (with grave repercussions for the starving Somalis, the butchered Rwandans, and countless others.)

                                                                                            Image: Alex Nabaum

The Wars of Perception
(NYT op-ed), Nov 26. By DOMINIC JOHNSON and DOMINIC TIERNEY: In January 1968, Americans turned on their televisions to find scenes of chaos and carnage as Vietnamese communists unleashed their surprise Tet offensive. It would go down in history as the greatest American battlefield defeat of the cold war...Except that, remarkably, Tet and Somalia were not defeats...

Chirac seeks Afghan Nato role for Iran

The Financial Times reports today that "France will on Tuesday propose that Iran be invited to join a "contact group" of countries and multilateral institutions to co-ordinate Nato's peacekeeping mission in Afghanistan."  US officials gave a "guarded response," but this must have some folks in Washington apoplectic...

What are NATO's goals in Afghanistan?

The Financial Times opines today that the Riga summit has "the makings of a small disaster" but that can be salvaged by refocusing on the alliances most pressing priority: Afghanistan. The FT argues that in addition to more troops, leaders must figure out what they're trying to achieve, and that "the strategy for the Afghanistan mission -- to help the government of President Hamid Karzai extend its authority -- is too broad brush to be useful."

Nietzsche once wrote that "the most fundamental form of human stupidity is forgetting what we were trying to do in the first place." As the FT notes, the current strategy "does not sufficiently indicate what kind of end state Nato is seeking to achieve or how long its troops will remain." The problem, of course, is that there are significant differences between the allies on each of these issues--differences that won't be resolved at Riga.

Afghanistan mission
Nov 28 (Financial Times), Editorial: ...The vagueness of the strategy also helps explain the huge difference in each Nato contingent's operations - from the British who have taken the fight to Taliban-infested badlands, to the Dutch, who have focused more on reconstruction, to the Germans, seemingly averse to any combat at all. Nato leaders should set out some clear, achievable goals that would fall far short of establishing Afghanistan as a western style democracy but would leave it a more stable place...

U.S.-Afghan Business Matchmaking Opportunities

I learned today from the  Afghan-American Chamber of Commerce (AACC) that three company representatives who had planned to attend the U.S.-Afghan Business Matchmaking Conference were unable to attend because of visa issues. The AACC is helping them identify U.S. companies and organizations interested in meeting with them. If you are interested in "obtaining perspectives on developments in the Afghan economy from Afghan companies working on the ground" you can set up a meeting with these individuals by emailing mnawabi@a-acc.org or calling (202) 436-1400.  Continue reading for short company profiles and their availability...

Independent: NATO reinforcements "unlikely"

The Independent reports that "heads of the alliance's 26 nations are unlikely to agree to send reinforcements to Afghanistan--dealing a blow to Tony Blair's hopes that others will take up more of the increasingly heavy burden" but that the alliance is "hoping for progress on one of the main problems facing commanders in the field: restrictions placed by national capitals on the use of their troops."

Nato urged to plan Afghanistan exit strategy as violence soars
Nov 27 (The Independent) By Stephen Castle in Brussels and Kim Sengupta in Kabul: Nato's fragile unity over Afghanistan has begun to crack ahead of an important summit - with one public call to discuss an exit strategy from the Allied forces' bloody confrontation with the Taliban. While heads of government are to make a show of unity over Afghanistan at tomorrow's alliance summit in Riga, Belgium's Defence Minister has questioned the future of Nato's most important mission...

2006 Riga Papers available

In preparation for the Riga summit, the German Marshall Fund has released five original policy papers it commissioned with the theme of  "Transforming NATO in a New Global Era."

The five Riga Papers are summarized below...

One solution for NATO: Think Bigger

Ivo Daalder, blogging at TPM cafe, notes that "You're forgiven if you had failed to notice this, but the original reason for Bush's trip abroad this week was to meet up with the 25 other NATO leaders..." One reason that so many of them "seem to be determined to get in and out of Riga, Latvia, without leaving much a trace" is that Bush, Blair and Chirac are all political lame-ducks, so little of substance is expected. Daalder believes this is just the chance for NATO to "think bigger and more globally":

Global Challenges for NATO, Nov 27, by Ivo Daalder and James Goldgeier:...Political paralysis at home affects what NATO can do abroad.  As its leaders meet, they confront the specter of failure in the Alliance’s biggest and most important military operation in Afghanistan...NATO took on this mission, knowing that it would be difficult and require extraordinary effort.  Unfortunately, it hasn’t provided the means necessary to succeed. Some countries have failed to provide even the troops and capabilities promised, while others have placed such severe restrictions on what their forces can do and where they can be deployed that their presence is practically useless.  Yet, even with a full complement of troops and without national “caveats” on what these forces can do, the operation will likely fail without a much greater effort by the Alliance members.  Unfortunately, with the United States mired in Iraq and European militaries stretched thin, the Alliance may have bitten off more than it can chew. 

There is a temptation in some circles to believe that NATO should think smaller — and once again focus its efforts on the core mission of securing Europe. . .But the threats all of the Alliance members face today are global, not regional.  Whether it is terrorism or weapons proliferation or failing states, the main challenges confronting Europe and the United States stem from beyond the north Atlantic region. That, after all, is why NATO is in Afghanistan.

So rather than thinking smaller and more regionally, NATO must think bigger and more globally. It must develop a strategy that meets these global challenges head on. NATO needs to develop and procure military capabilities that will enable it to project military power over great distances and at rapid speed. And it must enhance its collective capacity to operate globally by endorsing President Bush’s proposal to create a global partnership with other democratic countries, like Japan, Australia, and South Korea. Indeed, these non-European democracies should down the road be invited to join the Alliance as full members...

AUDIO: All things considered with Eikenberry

Michele Norris talks with Eikenberry about the campaign for Afghanistan:

 All Things Considered, November 20, 2006 · Afghanistan has seen a recent Taliban resurgence in certain areas. Lt. Gen. Karl Eikenberry, commander of Combined Forces Command in Afghanistan, says the challenge right now is to continue strengthening the Afghan government so it's able to deal with the Taliban. "The challenge has been one of not dealing with a strong enemy," Eikenberry says. "It's that there is a weak state."

Coalition to press attack--and hope for snow

The Taliban has said there will be no winter lull. The coalition has said there will be no winter lull. The Afghan army has said there will be no winter lull.

Expect a winter lull.

Operating in mountainous and remote areas is difficult in winter, whatever your strategy and whatever your resources. Already the frequency of attacks has dropped significantly, and colder weather is yet to come.

Should the Taliban seek to press the attack, however, colder weather favors coalition and Afghan forces, who have better mobility and are backed by airlifts. For this reason, we may see the Taliban direct their efforts toward guerrilla tactics within urban areas in the coming months.

Afghan Army to Strike Taliban in Winter
DUBAI, Nov 19 (AP) By Jim Krane-- The U.S.-backed Afghan army will step up counter-Taliban offensives this winter, which could see heavy fighting during a period traditionally used by Afghan fighters for rest and resupply, a U.S. general said here Sunday.

U.S. Army Brig. Gen. Douglas Pritt, who oversees the U.S.-led effort to train the Afghan military, said Afghan forces have tripled the number of forward bases to more than 60 and plan to spend the winter harassing Taliban and gathering intelligence from combat outposts deep inside rebel strongholds.

"They're much better equipped for winter operations than the Taliban. I'm hoping for a lot of snow this winter," Pritt said during a visit to The Associated Press bureau in Dubai.

Image: U.S. Marines conduct a patrol in Khowst-Gardez Pass, Dec. 30, 2004. DoD photo by Cpl. James L. Yarboro

Senate testimony: violence doubled in 2006

General Michael Maples, who directs the Defense Intelligence Agency and is America's top military defense officer, this week testified to the Senate Armed Services Committee that "Despite having absorbed heavy combat losses in 2006, the insurgency has strengthened its capabilities and influence with its core base of Pashtun communities." 

"Violence this year is likely to be twice as high as the violence level seen in 2005 ... In 2007, insurgents are likely to sustain their use of more visible, aggressive and lethal tactics."