On vacation...

Afghanistan Watch will be joining me on vacation until Jan. 2; there may be a few intermittent postings but nothing regular. Happy holidays to all!

Did the White House block Leverett for discussing Iran-U.S. cooperation in Afghanistan?

• 2:15 am UPDATE: The NY Times has just printed Leverett's op-ed with blacked-out sections alongside citations. Read "What We Wanted to Tell You About Iran"

This week a wave of news stories (Washington Post, New York Times, Financial Times) described how the White House allegedly intervened to block the publication of an op-ed by Flynt Leverett. Leverett has been a critic of Washington's Iran policy, and in his op-ed called for a new, comprehensive bargain with Iran. The passages in question discuss U.S.-Iranian cooperation after 9/11 (a development that had been well-documented.) But they are already documented--as Leverett noted in an interview with The NY Times: “There is no plausible claim that this is confidential stuff...There’s no detail in these paragraphs that has not already been written about by me and other officials.”

Well, the next chapter will be written tomorrow morning, according to Steve Clemons of the Washington Note:

Unless lawyers or other news get in the way, two very important pieces will be up. The first in the New York Times will be Flynt Leverett's CIA-censored op-ed based on his new paper, "Dealing with Tehran." But, op-ed page editor David Shipley will add some "graphic flair" by posting the original op-ed that the CIA reviewed after White House National Security Council staff insinuated themselves into this normally intrigue-free process. The op-ed will run with the blacked out, redacted lines "blacked out." Very cool.

So we won't know precisely what was excluded...but the Times will include a secret decoder ring: links to the citations that include many of the same arguments and data points. One of these key citations made it through the CIA review process just last week--a white paper by Leverett published by my organization, The Century Foundation (full disclosure: I worked with Leverett and others here at Century in the publishing this paper as part of our series on Iran.) You can read the entire paper here, or see the excerpt on U.S.-Iran cooperation in Afghanistan below the break...MORE

Economic opportunity from under the floorboards

"People are coming who have never seen a bank before. They are pulling their money from under the
floorboards and we are putting it into circulation through loans."
                   - Hayatullah Dayani, Azizi bank's chief of business development

"It's not like investing in Austria or the United Arab Emirates where things are pretty straightforward. Given that we are only just emerging from a postconflict situation, things are very complicated. But the possibilities are endless if you are able to adapt."

                   - Mohammad Rafi Fazil, economics officer for the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in Afghanistan.

"The economy is moving forward. Afghans are hungry. We are tired of war and we want to buy. We want to build."
                  - Karim Khan, one of 60,000 Afghans in four months to open a new account at Azizi Bank

See: Capitalism Comes to Afghanistan, Time Magazine, By ARYN BAKER.

French Spec-Ops going home; fear of "nasty guerilla warfare"?

It may only be 200 troops,  but the move is symbolically huge. The alliance was already having a hard time increasing it forces to the size the commanders say they need. Then the Australians announce a draw-down of 200 special forces in September, the French are out, and nobody has ponied up for the 1,000 + rapid reaction forces that are seen as especially critical.

Why is France shipping its best troops home? There is, of course, the predictable claims that they are no longer appropriate for the task at hand or are needed elsewhere (like Lebanon or Africa) but the underlying reason is Paris's skepticism about ISAF's new role as peacemaker rather than peacekeeper. As François Géré of the French Institute of Strategic Analysis notes: "There is strong skepticism about the relevance of NATO in Afghanistan if it is not for stabilization and rebuilding of the country...If it is for waging nasty guerrilla warfare, there is no appetite in France and, I think, most European countries."

French Pulls Troops From Afghanistan
Dec 20 (AP) By ELAINE GANLEY:  PARIS -- As violence mounts in Afghanistan, France is pulling 200 of its best soldiers out. But military officials here insist France remains fully committed, with 1,100 troops still based in Kabul. Nevertheless, France's decision to withdraw its Special Forces comes amid concerns in Paris that NATO's mission in Afghanistan has grown confused and that the alliance may be overreaching in its efforts to stabilize and rebuild the nation. MORE

Photos: French military coat of arms; François Géré

Bill Richardson: redeploy troops to Afghanistan

In a speech to the New Hampshire Democratic Party, New Mexico governor Bill Richardson criticized John McCain’s Iraq strategy, and added to a growing chorus in calling to shift troops to Afghanistan. Richardson is yet undeclared as a presidential candidate, but his comments to Fox News a couple weeks ago--and his weekend stump speech in a key Primary state--are telling...

Bill Richardson Wants Troops Redeployed to Afghanistan      
Dec 16, by Daniel Maldonado: NM Governor Bill Richardson fired off his first political cannonball today and aimed it at Senator John McCain’s call to escalate troop levels in Iraq by an additional 30,000 soldiers.“There’s no military solution” Richardson, a Democrat, said. There’s got to be a political solution. Richardson lambasted McCain’s call for the additional troops saying that it would only foment sectarian violence.

Instead, Richardson suggested a fixed withdrawal date sometime in 2007 along with a redeployment of troops to Afghanistan which would aid America’s efforts to combat terrorism.

 

Rubin in Foreign Affairs

Barney Rubin's latest in Foreign Affairs draws on his congressional testimony (posted last month) to compose a sobering "big picture" of developments in Afghanistan.  Another excellent contribution to understanding and rethinking a faltering strategy. The entire article is available online:

Saving Afghanistan
Barnett R. Rubin, From Foreign Affairs, January/February 2007
Summary:  With the Taliban resurgent, reconstruction faltering, and opium poppy cultivation at an all-time high, Afghanistan is at risk of collapsing into chaos. If Washington wants to save the international effort there, it must increase its commitment to the area and rethink its strategy -- especially its approach to Pakistan, which continues to give sanctuary to insurgents on its tribal frontier.

Pakistani/Afghan cooperation on a border issue--Polio

"What better way to get peace in the region than health diplomacy...As far as health is concerned, security really doesn't concern us."
                      - Pakistani Health Minister Mohammad Naseer Khan, speaking near the Khyber Pass

An encouraging, if limited, development: cross-border health cooperation...

Pakistan, Afghans aim to eradicate polio on border
TORKHAM, Pakistan-Afghan Border, Dec 12 (Reuters) By Zeeshan Haider: Shrugging off the danger of militant violence, Pakistan and Afghanistan on Tuesday launched a drive to eradicate polio from the rugged tribal lands on both sides of their border MORE

Cordesman Op-ed: More, and fast...

Anthony Cordesman of CSIS, known for his expertise on Iraq and military affairs, has just returned from Afghanistan.  In a significant NY Times op-ed this morning he writes that we have a brief window of opportunity to deliver more military and economic aid,and to do it in ways that "ensure it actually gets to Afghans, particularly in the areas where the threat is greatest," or we risk losing a second war.

Cordesman concludes that the U.S. needs at least two more infantry battalions (i.e. ~1,000-2,000 troops) and more special forces. These increases are "tiny by comparison with American forces in Iraq, but they can make all the difference." Moreover, "unless at least $1.1 billion comes immediately, aid will lag far behind need next year." He also argues that the U.S. "is carrying far too much of the burden, and NATO allies, particularly France, Germany, Italy and Spain, are falling short." The West's "political process in Kabul — rather than on the quality of governance and on services — has left many areas angry," and Congress boost funding to deliver results.  

One War We Can Still Win
Dec 13, By ANTHONY H. CORDESMAN: No one can return from visiting the front in Afghanistan without realizing there is a very real risk that the United States and NATO will lose their war with Al Qaeda, the Taliban and the other Islamist movements fighting the Afghan government. Declassified intelligence made available during my recent trip there showed that major Al Qaeda, Taliban, Haqqani Network and Hezb-i-Islami sanctuaries exist in Pakistan, and that the areas they operate in within Afghanistan have increased fourfold over the last year. MORE

What John Waters thinks the president said...

When asked about the upcoming eradication program, John Waters, head of the White House's Office of National Drug Control Policy, sounded anything but decisive:

To assuage those fears, Mr Walters ruled out the use of planes and said spraying would initially use ground-based techniques. President Hamid Karzai had approved herbicide use, he said. "I think the president has said yes, and I think some of the ministers have repeated yes."

But Mr Karzai's office was less sure. One official would not confirm the change. "We are thinking about the issue and looking to see how we might proceed," he said.

Crisis Group: integrate Federally Administered Tribal Areas

Today the International Crisis Group released its latest report, "Pakistan’s Tribal Areas: Appeasing the Militants"  which argues that military operations have failed because they alternated between excessive force and appeasement. Empty pledges and amnesties have not worked, and "the government has reinforced administrative and legal structures that undermine the state and spur anarchy."

The solution requires a broader strategy that deals "with the challenges of militancy, governance and extremism in FATA through the rule of law and an extension of civil and political rights."  Click here to view the full report as a pdf, of read on for the Executive Summary. MORE