Out of pocket...

Afghanistan Watch will not be updated regularly until Feb 1. . .until then, Carl

Burdened U.S. military cuts role in drug war

The LA Times has been following Congress' push to get the Pentagon more involved in counternarcotics--see the rundown from last month here.  Here's the latest from Josh Meyer:

Air and sea patrolling is slashed on southern smuggling routes
WASHINGTON, Jan 22, by Josh Meyer (LA Times): Stretched thin from fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan, the U.S. military has sharply reduced its role in the war on drugs, leaving significant gaps in the nation's narcotics interdiction efforts...Internal records show that in the last four years the Pentagon has reduced by more than 62% its surveillance flight-hours over Caribbean and Pacific Ocean routes that are used to smuggle cocaine, marijuana and, increasingly, Colombian-produced heroin. At the same time, the Navy is deploying one-third fewer patrol boats in search of smugglers...The Department of Defense defended its policy shift in a budget document sent to Congress in October: "The DOD position is that detecting drug trafficking is a lower priority than supporting our service members on ongoing combat missions."...

Image: The US Coast Guard working...in Umm Qasr Iraq!? Photo by PA1 Tom Sperduto, USCG.

Claudio Franco: How and why the Taliban fight

This is a nice piece of reporting by Claudio Franco of the San Francisco Chronicle foreign service which describes, among other things:

• The uneasy alliance between the Taliban and the "Arabs," who are seen as trigger happy and intent on martyrdom. "They won't stop shooting even when they are told to. And they always write messages home before a battle -- they get ready to die. I know them well, and I don't like them; they just don't trust Afghans." says one Taliban fighter. Another: "Some of them stay for six months and then go back, nobody knows where. They pay a lot to get in and out. None of them will talk, but they come here to train, I guess. Al Qaeda has its own network in Konar and Nuristan; they don't need us."
• The confidence the Taliban have in their tactics: "The U.S. helicopters cannot land if we are around, and they can't always target us from the air. They know we only need a split second to hit them and disappear. We only assemble with other units for large-scale attacks. With a few hours' advance notice, we can be virtually anywhere in the province. Once we have split up, it's extremely difficult to locate us without risking being hit."
• The resentment stirred by merging humanitarian and military roles in the PRT model: "They are uniformed soldiers, not nurses," says one Taliban.

(NB: Barnett Rubin notes that "This groups seems to be Hizb-i Islami Hikmatyar, not Taliban. Maybe the distinction is not so clear anymore, but Kashmir Khan is a major Hikmatyar commander." Either way, the article is insightful...)

In remote Afghan camp, Taliban explain how and why they fight
Konar, Jan 21, 2007 (SF Chron) by Claudio Franco  --...After months of protracted negotiations, Kashmir Khan, the Taliban insurgents' overall commander in Konar and Nuristan provinces, consented to the visit of a Western journalist to meet with these fighters, and guaranteed security...Musa Khan said his unit had 25 to 30 fighters, a handful of whom were deployed on the hilltops surrounding the interim base, securing all the potential access routes to the camp. This is how the Taliban operate in the eastern provinces, Musa Khan explained through a translator -- "groups of 20 to 40 lightly equipped men who are extremely mobile and effective in this rugged terrain."

Taliban to open their own schools in the south

The Taliban remain highly unpopular in the south, in part because they are seen as tearing down without building anything up. This new initiative to build schools is an attempt to provide some services. However, with only a million dollars to spend they will be hard pressed to convince people that they offer a viable alternative to government schools.

Taliban to open schools in Afghanistan Jan 22 (AP) by NOOR KHAN The Taliban said they will open their own schools in areas of southern Afghanistan under the group's control, an apparent effort to win support among local residents and undermine the Western-backed government's efforts to expand education.

The announcement follows a violent campaign by the fundamentalist Islamic group against state schools in the five years since its ouster by U.S.-led forces. The Taliban destroyed 200 schools and killed 20 teachers last year, and President Hamid Karzai said Sunday that 200,000 children had been driven from the classroom... MORE

Photo: A girls school torched by the Taliban last year (Credit: Zalmai for Newsweek)

Afghanistan Needs More than Reinforcements

As the administration prepares to send another 20,000 soldiers to Iraq, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates traveled to Afghanistan. There he met U.S. and NATO commanders that find themselves shorthanded against a renewed insurgency. In 2006, armed attacks tripled, to over twelve per day. With only 20,000 U.S.soldiers in all of Afghanistan, split between the NATO command and the U.S.-led coalition, there are not enough troops to go around.

The mission in Iraq, insatiable and interminable, has left Afghanistan in a state of chronic neglect. General David Richards, the NATO commander, estimates that he is 4,000 to 5,000 troops short; coalition commander General Karl Eikenberry is also calling for reinforcements. Unlike in Iraq, where troop increases have been tried before and failed, a few thousand additional soldiers in Afghanistan could go a long way, allowing international forces to hold towns that have been cleared of Taliban and to be proactive rather than reactive. That’s why the new chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Senator Joseph Biden, has said, “If we're surging troops anywhere, it should be in Afghanistan.”

The argument for additional troops is compelling, but it’s important the conversation not end there. MORE

The man from Bogota

Pres. Bush announced today the next Ambassador to Afghanistan: William B. Wood. Wood has an impressive resume that suggests no experience whatsoever in the region (a curious distinction for  the nation's most demanding diplomatic post east of Baghdad...)

Wood's last posting, however, hints at why this president might find him a suitable candidate for the job:

Wood, 56, has spent most of his career in the diplomatic corps, working most recently in Bogotá with Colombia's government against a domestic insurgent group and drug traffickers.

Where did they file those eradication plans?

Troop increase: necessary but not sufficient

As I and others argue in today's San Francisco Chronicle, an increase in troop levels is a necessary but hardly sufficient condition for improving security. The fundamental challenges are: a) developing a smart and coherent approach toward Pakistan; and b) investing more (and more wisely) in state building, economic development and rule of law -- the components of sustainable security.

Anna Badkhen's piece does an great job of laying out the challenges that lie behind the numbers game:

U.S. weighing troop increase for Afghanistan
Jan 18 (San Francisco Chronicle), Anna Badkhen, Chronicle Staff Writer: As the Bush administration struggles with bipartisan opposition to increasing troop levels in Iraq, the new Pentagon chief is also weighing requests to send more troops to Afghanistan, where military commanders anticipate another surge in violence in the spring. While many analysts support a troop boost to Afghanistan, they also warn that the increase alone would not be enough to fight the resurgent Islamic militia, which has been staging increasingly bold attacks against U.S., NATO and Afghan forces and civilians.

"It's pretty clear that the fighting is more sustained than anybody had expected," said Carl Robichaud, an expert on Afghanistan at the Century Foundation, a nonpartisan public policy research group in New York. But he added that giving the international forces "the resources they need is a necessary but by no means a sufficient move. ... We shouldn't be under any illusions that that's going to transform what's going on in Afghanistan."

Karzai sacks chief of staff amid rumors

Karzai today replaced Jawed Ludin, his chief of staff, with Omar Daudzai (who preceded him in that post two years ago.) Ahmed Rashid reports that "the cause of the shake up was due to political infighting within the president's staff" and that "the move has shaken Western diplomats in Kabul and is seen as a sign that Mr Karzai is struggling to control the loyalty of his government."

Karzai sacks aide amid plot rumors
LAHORE, Jan 18, By Ahmed Rashid: ...[Ludin's removal] has triggered a flood of rumours amongst Afghan cabinet ministers about a possible conspiracy by some warlords against Mr Karzai just as Afghan and Nato forces brace themselves for a major Taliban offensive in the next few weeks...MORE

Congress for a surge in Afghanistan?

After consulting commanders, it seems Sec Gates is leaning toward troop increases in Afghanistan. What about Congress, which has pushed back again an escalation in Iraq? Today The Hill featured a story on Congressional Democrats and their desire to shift attention to Afghanistan. Among those who say their committees will examine the issue:

• Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA) Senate Armed Services and Foreign Relations Committees .
• Rep. John Murtha (D-Pa.), Chair of House Defense Appropriations subcommittee.
• Rep. Marty Meehan (D-MA), chair the House Armed Services Investigations and Oversight subcommittee, has said that he's solicited ideas from all the members of his panel on Afghanistan: “There has been a discussion but we have to agree on a plan to do that.”
• Sen. Evan Bayh (D-Ind.), Rep. John McHugh (R-N.Y.), and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) have returned from a congressional delegations to Afghanistan and their observations should color today's debate.
• On the other hand, The Hill reports that Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) plans to refrain from calling for additional troops in Afghanistan "because he wants to ensure any effort is multinational." Some good details here...

Dems struggle to shift focus to Afghanistan from Iraq
WASHINGTON, (The Hill) Jan 17, By Roxana Tiron: Several top Democrats, including 2008 presidential hopefuls Sens. Joseph Biden Jr. (D-Del.) and Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.), said a troop increase should occur in Afghanistan rather than Iraq...MORE

Photo: Sen. Evan Bayh meets with Afghan forces.

 

US Sec Def Gates in Afghanistan

Defense Secretary Robert Gates met with the NATO Sec-Gen yesterday, where he reiterated the need for both a military and civilian response to growing instability, and today be gins meetings in Afghanistan. According to a defense official, Gates will ask military commanders today whether they have the troops and resources to counter Taliban offensives.

U.S. defense secretary in Afghanistan for talks on fear of Taliban gains
KABUL, Jan 16 (AP): U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates met with the U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan on Tuesday before planned meetings with NATO and U.S. military leaders and Afghan President Hamid Karzai to discuss the resurgent Taliban insurgency. It was Gates' first trip to Afghanistan since he took over for Donald H. Rumsfeld last month. Gates has said several times recently that he is worried that U.S. gains in stabilizing Afghanistan could be in jeopardy...