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March 21, 2007

After the Mastrogiacomo kidnapping

Stratfor_2 Fred Burton of Stratfor (subsc. req) writes that the Mastrogiacomo kidnapping (and subsequent negotiation for release of prisoners) is a sign that "reporters (and other Western noncombatants) have now become a valuable commodity in Afghanistan -- a 'get out of jail free card' for jihadists or criminals." Seems like he's jumping the gun here; statistically speaking, Afghanistan has not been an especially dangerous conflict zone for foreign journalists to operate. But Burton is right that the high-profile event could inspire copycats:

The problem is, even if this is not the beginning of a larger Taliban strategy to commoditize foreigners, their actions have in effect already done this. Other actors at large in Afghanistan, including al Qaeda, non-Taliban jihadists, criminal groups and even the various tribes, could decide to follow Dadullah's lead in order to gain the freedom of their own colleagues or family members.

Whether higher risks are reality or mostly perception, incidents like this effect how reporting and reconstruction is done (deteriorating security has crippled each in Iraq; it's impossible to do these jobs right from the green zone.)

Posted by Carl Robichaud on March 21, 2007 at 03:46 PM in Taliban |

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