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April 18, 2007

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Péter Marton

Thanks for the update! Actually, I have already listened to Koenders' speech and even posted on it - you may check that at http://statefailure.blogspot.com. However, it was interesting to read the Dutch reader's comments - I still have a rather negative opinion on the Dutch version of the ink blot/oil spot approach, so I tend to agree with the remark made. More harassment of insurgents is needed, so I concluded, and that's actually just what Australian special troops have recently arrived to Uruzgan for, to carry out clandestine patrols and stuff like that. I found it interesting that Koenders wouldn't mention that in his speech.
You are right that even a soft approach could work in the (potentially very) long run, however, for that NATO, including the Dutch (who will, during the summer or by September the latest, review whether to keep their troops in Uruzgan), would have to have a totally open-ended commitment. And for NATO to be able to completely leave Talibs alone in some remote valleys until there is a chance to split off the more moderate ones from among them (if there are such), the Pakistani border would have to be sealed off completely, which I don't think is a realistic option.

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