Clarifying EFPs and Shaped Charges

In response to yesterday's query, we got several helpful clarifications. Below I've quoted an excellent breakdown of the differences by David Hambling (author of Weapons Grade...) Thanks also to Joshua Foust at Registan.

The bottom line is that EFPs are a specific type of shaped charge that is new to Afghanistan; they have less penetrating capability but with much greater range, which makes them very difficult to defend against. It's one thing to protect against a mine that only blows up when you go over it, and another thing entirely when that weapon can be concealed alongside the road. They newly introduced mines are not difficult to make once you know the specifications.

While in the same general class, EFPs are distinct from normal shaped charges. MORE

Photo: An EFP in Iraq.

Explosively formed penetrator = shaped explosives?

I've been trying to figure out from media reports whether the recently announced "explosively formed penetrators" (EFPs) are different from the "shaped charges" that have been used by insurgents in Afghanistan for several years (see this story from Scott Baldauf and Ashraf Khan in September 2005, which talks about the adaptation of shaped charges from Iraq.)

So far it sounds like EFPs are a specific type of shaped projectile, and are based on technology which is neither new nor technically demanding. A recent story in Jane's Defense observes that "the knowledge required to manufacture and use EFPs may have become so widespread that Iranian assistance is no longer required" and Wired's David Hambling notes that typically "designs and 'recipes' are likely passed between groups online...giving terrorists a major boost in their arms race against countermeasures." 

Some sources claim that the discovery of EFPs in Afghanistan is proof that Iran is supporting the Taliban against coalition forces. This prompts the question: if EFPs used today in Afghanistan were produced by Iran, does that suggest that the ones used there in years past were of Iranian origin as well? (If they were, that does not mean, of course, that Iranians were supporting the Taliban at that time, since it is possible that arms they sent to Iraq made their way over to Afghanistan or that the weapons were sold by smugglers...the same is true today.)

If you have thoughts on this, let us know in the comments section...

Tom Perriello: A Big Step Forward… Maybe

Ask Afghans to single out the biggest challenge facing their country, and corruption will almost certainly be the first answer. Today, they may get some rare good news on that front, as President Karzai is scheduled to give his final approval for the Advisory Panel for Presidential Appointments (APPA). According to the final draft of its terms of reference (which I hope to post shortly), this panel would vet executive appointees for certain senior posts on three criteria: corruption, competence, and culpability for past atrocities. Among others, no future Governors, Deputy Ministers, chiefs of police, or chiefs of security will be able to get appointed without clearance from this five-member panel.

First, the good news. As I mentioned in the last post, top diplomats and Afghan civil society leaders have been putting serious political capital behind this. As the call for transitional justice has shifted, at least temporarily, into a focus on vetting, this panel has become a top priority. Despite this, just a few weeks ago, it seemed the year-long fight to establish the APPA was lost. At other moments, it looked like the panel might have the power to advise on, but not block, an appointment. Most think that Karzai’s Chief of Staff, Omar Daoudzai, had been actively working to undermine or at least weaken the panel. Given these hurdles, the establishment of the APPA is a laudable success.

Relevant donors and partners met on Monday, and it looks like the Asia Foundation will provide much-needed technical support to the Panel and its Secretariat. The Canadians are set to fund the Panel for the coming year (any readers who have good relations with the Canadian Embassy might want to drop them a line on this).

On the downside, some players are skeptical that this panel will have the courage or inclination to disagree with Karzai, or that the President would even honor its decisions. People ask why this should produce results any different from the vetting (or disastrous lack thereof) during parliamentary elections. Critics will note that the current structure has the APPA answering directly to the Chief of Staff. While advocates hope to increase its independence, including making it an independent line item in future Executive budgets, this certainly underscores the influence Daoudzai will be able to wield over the panel.

One of the biggest questions is where the Americans stand. So far, the US Embassy has given rhetorical support to the APPA and has been following quite closely the last rounds of negotiations. But they have not put serious diplomatic pressure behind this. As one senior diplomat said, this panel will have exactly zero influence unless the US--and particularly the US military, not the Embassy–-sees it as a useful tool for marginalizing the worst individuals. For the US, other priorities are a distant second to security, and little recognition exists of any causal link between the insurgency and corruption. Security experts here note that the ranks of the insurgency are being filled as much by villagers fed up with corruption as by those we would traditionally call Talibs.

One hope, even among the cynics, is that President Karzai is supporting this panel to give himself political cover for not appointing certain cronies. The logic is that he can avoid empowering certain actors with the explanation that his hands are tied.

Speaking of Karzai’s cronies, people in the development community have taken to a shorthand for such folks – Friends of Karzai, or FOKers (as in Meet the Fockers).

No one is arguing that corruption has been solved, but it looks like Afghans and the international community now have a potentially powerful new tool for addressing it. The key will be to ensure that the panel has the financial and diplomatic support to succeed. For now though, the generally deflated justice crowd has a victory to celebrate.

NOTE: If for any reason the President does not sign off on this today, I will repost on that. Please keep comments or questions coming at tom@avaaz.org.

Tom Perriello is a Fellow of the Century Foundation currently in Afghanistan researching the intersection of justice and security.

New drug stats out; Most opium now processed within Afghanistan

The UN World Drug Report 2007 (an annual study by the UNODC) was released today, and its most significant finding is that an estimated 90 percent of the Afghanistan's opium is now processed within the country's borders (mostly in the south and the east). That is a striking change from a couple years ago, when that proportion was reversed.

The development of a mature processing industry means that today druglords in Afghanistan keep a far greater share of their profits (which in years past were captured by lab operators in Tajikistan and Pakistan.) It also means that a concerted campaign directed at shutting down these labs (most of which are barely hidden) could hit traffickers where it hurts...Other interesting statistics below...

Wheat Production Doubles in Kunduz

Pajhwok reports this morning that wheat has doubled in Kunduz, gains attributable to increased yield (there were approximately the same numbers of acres under cultivation.) People sometimes deride alternative livelihoods as impossible, since "no crop can compete with poppy". In fact, the picture is more complicated. It's true that on marginal, low yield land, there are few alternatives to poppy, and few opportunity costs to growing it (see this excellent report by AREU). However, on productive land a combination of incentives and eradication policies can influence farmer choices. Higher productivity seeds and agricultural practice can help swing the balance away from poppy, and there are signs this is happening in Kunduz and in several other provinces that have seen declines opium cultivation.

Wheat Production doubles in Kunduz
KUNDUZ CITY, June 21 Asia Pulse - Wheat production in the northern Afghan province of Kunduz has doubled as many farmers have stopped growing poppies under the alternative livelihood program this year. The yield reached 111,000 tons this year as compared to 66,000 tons in last year, noted Abdul Aziz Nekzad, director of the agriculture and irrigation department....Mentioning the reason behind the ample harvest, the official said plenty of irrigation water, the counter-narcotics campaign and the provision of improved seeds has helped boost wheat production in the province. MORE

Image:                     An Afghan farmer selects a wheat variety at a research station (CIMMYT Maize and Wheat Improvement Center).

Tom Perriello: First Impressions

This is Tom Perriello's first post. He says that "if you have questions, comments or suggestions for this mission, feel free to contact me at tom@avaaz.org."

First Impressions a Second Time:
Initial Thoughts on Justice and Security from Kabul
As I left New York on Sunday, international headlines about Afghanistan suggested a scary scene of escalating violence and rising anti-American sentiment. I have only been in Afghanistan for three days, but my initial conversations with leaders in Kabul (and a number of interviews with Afghanistan experts before leaving) suggest an environment defined less by anxiety about security than by a dull resignation to watching a nation slowly slide backwards. Initial meetings with both Afghans and members of the international community betray a malaise of declining hope, lack of clear direction or mandate for the international community, lack of political will from the Karzai government, and rapidly shrinking expectations.

 

This is a shift from the last time I was here in late 2005 for two months following the Parliamentary elections. At that time, I was conducting a national survey on the relationship between justice and security, essentially asking people how the country should address atrocities from the past 30 years, and what impact this would have on national security. In addition to “person on the street” interviews, we met with opinion leaders in each province, including government officials and newly elected PMs, “warlords,” NGO leaders, journalists, academics, women leaders, and former and current combatants. A team of 65 Afghans and internationals conducted consultations with over 2000 indidivuals as part of this survey, and I oversaw interviews with leaders from Kabul, Wardak, Gardez, Kandahar, Helmand, and Bamiyan.

 

The survey indicated two distinct schools of thoughts, and my initial interviews this time suggest that those divisions remain in place, though a bit less stark...MORE

Grounds for hope--Coleman and Charney cite progress in women's rights

  Amidst the prevailing winds of pessimism it is good to have a reminder of how much ground Afghanistan's women have gained, both in legal rights and in societal acceptance of those rights. The polling data is truly striking--80% accept women in parliament, 70% in the workforce; 88% support education for girls. This data has held robust in survey after survey (in the piece below, Charney references data which is consistent with his first survey in 2004.)

Two caveats: first, these favorable views do not appear to be strongly held, and second, among influential elites the picture is quite different. Nevertheless, as Coleman and Charney remind us, "applying unrealistic yardsticks to Afghanistan leaves us unable to see important changes taking place there."

There are grounds for hope in Afghanistan. June 18, 2007, (Globe and Mail) by CRAIG CHARNEY AND ISOBEL COLEMAN: As the Taliban and NATO spring offensives grind on, many people's perceptions of Afghanistan are pessimistic. Some say our Western efforts have changed nothing, so we will fail: The ongoing abuses against women, corruption, and warlordism are opening the door to the Taliban. Others say unless we change nothing, we will fail: Steps towards gender equality and democracy are disturbing a male-dominated, ultra-conservative society and reviving Taliban support.

These perspectives miss the real grounds for hope in Afghanistan: Afghans themselves are changing their society, with Afghan women playing a leading role. Despite the Taliban's military revival, Afghan women have won broad support for their rights to study, work, and vote, largely gained since the Taliban's 2001 ouster, and overwhelmingly reject their former oppressors. But, at the same time, Afghans are struggling to reconcile many of their Islamic traditions with the modern world, as the case of women also shows.

Photo Source: DefenseLINK: An Afghan woman of the Pashtun tribe in Kabul, Afghanistan. Photo by Senior Airman Bethann Hunt, USAF.

Police commander reports 20 militants crossed from Iran

A troubling story (especially after Iranian-made weapons were found among Afghan insurgents several weeks ago...) Hoping for more (and more credible) details, but worth keeping on the radar.

This is the first public claim by a senior Afghan official that militants are crossing in from Iran. The police chief believes that Iran permitted them to cross (though this is hardly a certainty, given the porousness of these borders.) U.S. Defense Secretary Gates has said it is unlikely that Iran didn't know about previous arms shipments, but Afghan authorities have been skeptical of Tehran's involvement, saying instead that traffickers were probably responsible. Keep an eye on this story...

Armed men crossed into Afghanistan from Iran: Police

HERAT, June 19 (IANS): Colonel Rahmatullah Safi--police commander in the three western provinces of Farah, Badghis and Herat--said according to intelligence information, the group of armed militants crossed the border Monday in Farah's Anardara district. 'Two pickup trucks with over 20 armed people riding in them crossed the border from Iran to Afghanistan,' Safi said in his Border Police headquarters, 15 km outside Herat city. MORE

Taxi to the Dark Side

With the recent swirl of controversies over civilian detentions and wrongful deaths, one film sure to get a closer look is Taxi to the Dark Side, which won Best Documentary Film at the 2007 Tribeca Film Festival and last week claimed first prize at the Newport Film Festival as well. Not sure if it has a distributor yet, but keep an eye out...

Taxi to the Dark Side. Directed by Alex Gibney, Produced by Sidney Blumenthal.

• Watch Trailer here.

On December 1, 2002, a Kabul taxi driver named Dilawar took three passengers for a ride, and never returned to his home. Four days later, he arrived at the U.S. military detention center at Bagram Air Base. Five days after that, he was dead. This riveting documentary murder mystery explores how and why this Afghan civilian died while in U.S. custody. MORE

Please welcome Tom Periello

First, apologies for the silence on the airwaves. I was traveling last week for several conferences, one of which we hosted, and had limited internet access.

Second, I would like to introduce Tom Perriello who will be guest blogging this month from Afghanistan. Longtime Afghanistan Watch readers will recall Tom's contributions from 2005 on justice, accountability, and stability. He's one of the most incisive commentators on these issues, and I'm delighted he'll be joining us with occasional dispatches from his research in Afghanistan over the next several weeks.

Tom is currently a fellow of the Century Foundation and a Partner of Res Publica, a community of public sector professionals dedicated to promoting good governance, civic virtue and deliberative democracy.

He previously served as Special Advisor to the International Prosecutor of the Special Court for Sierra Leone and has worked on justice issues in Afghanistan, Kosovo, India, Argentina, Chile, Sudan, Sierra   Leone, and the United States. Tom is also a co-founder of Avaaz.org, a global on-line community with over 1.1 million members, including citizens from 215 countries and territories. It operates in 12 languages and runs global campaigns on issues such as climate change, global poverty, Middle East security, and human rights.

In late 2005, Tom helped coordinate a national qualitative survey in Afghanistan investigating the relationship between accountability and stability. This survey, conducted as a consultant to the International Centre for Transitional Justice, confirmed a quantitative poll conducted earlier in the year showing that the vast majority of Afghans saw accountability as a critical factor in stabilizing the country. The interviews spanned every province and included ordinary Afghans, government officials, including the Vice President, Cabinet Ministers, regional governors and recently-elected members of Parliament, ulemas, leading human rights and women’s rights advocates, current and former combatants and “warlords” journalists, and academics. A piece summarizing the findings can be found here.

• For more on Tom's bio, click here.

Quoteboard

"If today the foreigners desert Afghanistan... then it will be seen for how many days the national army of Mr. Karzai will resist?...Nothing will remain stable even for a week."
                                          - Mohammad Qasim Fahim, June 3 (Reuters)

''There have been indications over the past few months of weapons coming in from Iran. We do not have any information about whether the government of Iran is supporting this, is behind it, or whether it's smuggling...But there clearly is evidence that some weapons are coming into Afghanistan destined for the Taliban, but perhaps also for criminal elements involved in the drug trafficking coming from Iran."
                                         -U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates

"They don't want to be used by us for our purposes and then not be given any assistance with their challenges...There is a massive potential for us to have a good relationship with Pakistan, but there is a trust issue."
                                    - U.S. Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.)

MORE QUOTES...