Pajhwok reports this morning that wheat has doubled in Kunduz, gains attributable to increased yield (there were approximately the same numbers of acres under cultivation.) People sometimes deride alternative livelihoods as impossible, since "no crop can compete with poppy". In fact, the picture is more complicated. It's true that on marginal, low yield land, there are few alternatives to poppy, and few opportunity costs to growing it (see this excellent report by AREU). However, on productive land a combination of incentives and eradication policies can influence farmer choices. Higher productivity seeds and agricultural practice can help swing the balance away from poppy, and there are signs this is happening in Kunduz and in several other provinces that have seen declines opium cultivation.
Wheat Production doubles in Kunduz
KUNDUZ CITY, June 21 Asia Pulse - Wheat production in the northern Afghan province of Kunduz has doubled as many farmers have stopped growing poppies under the alternative livelihood program this year. The yield reached 111,000 tons this year as compared to 66,000 tons in last year, noted Abdul Aziz Nekzad, director of the agriculture and irrigation department....Mentioning the reason behind the ample harvest, the official said plenty of irrigation water, the counter-narcotics campaign and the provision of improved seeds has helped boost wheat production in the province. MORE
Image: An Afghan farmer selects a wheat variety at a research station (CIMMYT Maize and Wheat Improvement Center).
He added that 250 tons of different types of seeds, including Aamo, Lalm-i-yak, Lalm-i-dow and Mazar have been distributed to farmers this year.
Ghulam Muhyuddin, a farmer and dweller of Hazrat Sultan village of the province, told Pajhwok Afghan News he had received 480 to 700 kilograms of wheat per acre of land last year. However, he was provided with 1,120 kilograms seeds per acre this year.
He said improved seeds and plenty of irrigation water helped boost production. He said the better harvest might lure farmers to stop cultivating opium poppies.
During his visit to the province last month, head of the counter-narcotics department at the Interior Ministry Gen. Daud Daud had said that Kunduz was among 20 provinces where poppies would not be cultivated this year.
(Pajhwok Afghan News)
Kunduz is a rare thing: an agricultural breadbasket region that's climatically ill-suited to growing poppy. I recall another AREU report discussing this in some length. Most poppy in Kunduz gets waterlogged, reducing opium yields. It's never been one of Afghanistan's main poppy provinces for that reason.
Check out the UNODC report for 2006. Over the last three years, Kunduz had 224, 275, and 102 hectares of poppy cultivation. By comparison, neighboring Balkh had 2,495, 10,837, 7,233. (True, Balkh is twice the size, but more of Kunduz's land is cultivable). Even if every Kunduz farmer who cultivated poppy last year switched to wheat, it would be a drop in the bucket.
If Nangarhar or Balkh sustain their swings away from poppy, that'll be a more encouraging sign. But from what I hear, ever more Nangarhari farmers are turning back to poppy, especially once you get a little ways outside Jalalabad (into that low-yield zone).
I don't mean to deride alt livelihoods as impossible. But it's a long ways from showing results anywhere in Afghanistan.
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