Out of pocket...

...until Tuesday. Will resume posting then...

Taliban and South Korea strike a deal?

For at least 8 of the 19 hostages, the six week ordeal is finally over.

The Taliban backed down from its steadfast demand for a prisoner exchange and settled instead for a reaffirmation of pledges from Korea that it would withdraw its troops at year's end and prevent  Christian missionaries from working in the country. So no new concessions here--though, of course, 11 hostages still remain. The Taliban say they will release all of the hostages over the next few days.

This raises an interesting question: why did the Taliban cave in? Was a side deal cut with unpublished concessions from Korea? Are they facing infighting and popular dissent over the kidnapping, as some reports have suggested? Or is the release of these eight prisoners meant as a "show of good faith" to pave the way for a second deal with the Korean or Afghan government?

Taliban release 8 South Korean Hostages. QALA-E-KAZI, Afghanistan (AP) By Amir Shah: Taliban militants on Wednesday released eight of 19 South Korean captives they promised to free under a deal struck with the South Korean government to resolve a nearly six-week hostage crisis...The first group of three women were released in the village of Qala-e-Kazi. Several hours later, four women and one man were released in a desert close to Shah Baz, said the reporter, who witnessed both hand-overs. None of the eight said anything to reporters. MORE                                 

Firefight at a drug lab in Daychopan, Zabul

The AP provides today one of the first reports I've heard of fighting at a drug lab. The report says the guards were "suspected Taliban" but I wonder how accurate this is...Wish there were more detail on this raid.

In the southern Zabul province, Afghan and coalition troops clashed with insurgents in Daychopan district Sunday, killing four suspected Taliban and wounding four others, said Fazel Bari, the Daychopan district chief.

Also Sunday, Afghan and coalition troops destroyed a heroin laboratory after battling Taliban fighters guarding the facility, a separate coalition statement said. The lab in Helmand contained large amounts of opium-processing chemicals as well as weapons, insurgent propaganda and explosive materials, it said.

Map: BBC.

"Bridge of friendship" opens

On Sunday the widest connection between Tajikistan and Afghanistan opened. The bridge, under construction since 2005, is 700 meters long and can handle a capacity of up to 1,000 vehicles a day (formerly, crossings required a barge that could only transport 60 cars per day and was unusable for part of the year). Construction was managed by the US Army Corps of Engineers and the total cost of $37 million was mostly financed by the US. The customs post is scheduled to open later this year.

Road Bridge Opens: IZHNY PYANJ, Tajikistan; Aug 26 (RFE/RL) -- The presidents of Afghanistan and Tajikistan inaugurated today a new bridge linking the two countries. Tajikistan's Emomali Rahmon and Afghanistan's Hamid Karzai said the new structure over the Pyanj River, which was financed by the United States, will strengthen trade in the region. The 700-meter structure straddles the Pyanj River between the ports of Nizhny Pyanj on the Tajik side and Shir Khan Bandar in Afghanistan.

The Tajik head of state, Emomali Rahmon, told those gathered for the ceremony in Nizhny Pyanj that the "bridge of friendship" will first of all "strengthen the old and vital relations of two countries and two peoples." But he also expressed concern that Tajik and Afghan authorities need to prevent the bridge from facilitating "all kinds of inadmissible activities, such as human, drug, and weapons trafficking." MORE

Image: The new bridge connecting Tajikistan and Afghanistan(RFE/RL)

 

Back at the wheel

After a longer than expected delay, I'm back at it...

On vacation

I will be away on vacation until August 20th, and will resume posting then. I will continue to occasionally check email if you have any questions, comments, or tips. Thanks, and see you back here in a couple weeks.

British commander opens fire on US Special Forces

For the first time, a British commander has openly (if anonymously) criticized the US military approach in Helmand, which he claims has led to most of the civilian deaths in the area and has jeopardized the British-led mission in the area. Official spokesmen from both the US and Britain rushed to dispute the claim.

The US retains a Special Forces presence in Helmand--they ostensibly advise the Afghan National Army and operate alongside the larger NATO deployment led by the British and numbering over 6,000 troops. The British commander, who apparently gave the interview a couple weeks ago, argues that "There aren’t large bodies of Taliban to fight anymore; we are dealing with small groups and we are trying to kick-start reconstruction and development,” and that therefore the Special Forces approach--with its reliance on airpower--is counterproductive in this context. Whether this claim is accurate, it is sure to add kindling to the smoldering debate over the US vs the European approach to counterinsurgency...Excerpts from the article follow...MORE

Bridging the expectations gap

In an op-ed this week, George Davendorf and Brian Grzelkowski -- part of a recent Mercy Corps delegation to Afghanistan -- argue that "the most serious threat to the fledgling Afghan state may be lurking in an unexpected place; not in the strife-ridden streets of Kandahar or the flourishing poppy fields of the countryside, but in the unfulfilled aspirations of average Afghan citizens."

To the Afghan government and donors, Davendorf and Grzelkowski make two specific recommendations that would make a big difference:

1. "Expedite the provision of reconstruction and development assistance at the local level by adopting both a top-down and bottom-up approach...(and) finding ways to inject additional resources at the provincial and district levels where they can quickly benefit average Afghans."
2. "Develop a credible, effective communications strategy to better guide and manage public expectations...to rebuild public confidence in the nation-building effort now underway."

Read the full op-ed below...

Possible hostage outcomes

The Associated Press ran a piece today about possible outcomes of the hostage standoff. Here are the options, along with the AP assessment:

• RELEASE TALIBAN PRISONERS

The Taliban has submitted an initial list of eight prisoners to the government, most of whom are related to the kidnappers and are not senior in the Taliban hierarchy. ...But the Afghan government appears unlikely to agree after it was heavily criticized earlier this year for releasing five Taliban in exchange for an Italian reporter...One high-ranking Afghan official, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter, said the government "is not ready to make any deal with terrorist kidnappers, even if they kill all the hostages."

Photo: Shah Mansoor Dadullah was one of five prisoners released this year for the Italian journalist. He is currently a top Taliban commander in the south and may have had a hand in the Korean hostage crisis. (Source: Afgha)

Comments on the South Korean hostage situation

The following are comments I made to a South Korean reporter covering the hostage crisis. If you have additional insights for him -- or corrections for me -- drop me an email and I will pass them along.

1. What is the security situation in Afghanistan as a whole?

It very much depends on the region. Several provinces in the south and southeast (e.g. Helmand, Kandahar, Zabol, Ghazni) are quite dangerous and have become more so. But in the rest of the country, especially in the north and the west and in major cities such as Kabul, is fairly safe. Afghans and foreigners living and working there must take precautions, but are not at risk in the same way that aid workers in Kandahar would be.

After incidents like these, the international community must reconsider where and how it operates. The OECD has estimated that fully half of all development assistance has been spent in four of the most dangerous provinces in the south. It is extremely difficult and expensive to do development work in this environment. A decision was made to concentrate development work in these contentious areas in order to “win hearts and minds,” but it’s not clear that this approach is working. On the other hand, there are many stable regions in Afghanistan that are languishing from a lack of attention. So a wiser approach, especially in light of these recent kidnappings, is to pick some of the low-hanging fruit that is currently rotting on the vine. MORE