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August 02, 2007

Possible hostage outcomes

ShahmansoordadullahThe Associated Press ran a piece today about possible outcomes of the hostage standoff. Here are the options, along with the AP assessment:

  • RELEASE TALIBAN PRISONERS

The Taliban has submitted an initial list of eight prisoners to the government, most of whom are related to the kidnappers and are not senior in the Taliban hierarchy. ...But the Afghan government appears unlikely to agree after it was heavily criticized earlier this year for releasing five Taliban in exchange for an Italian reporter...One high-ranking Afghan official, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter, said the government "is not ready to make any deal with terrorist kidnappers, even if they kill all the hostages."

Photo: Shah Mansoor Dadullah was one of five prisoners released this year for the Italian journalist. He is currently a top Taliban commander in the south and may have had a hand in the Korean hostage crisis. (Source: Afgha)

  • A MILITARY ASSAULT ON THE KIDNAPPERS

South Korea would not likely consent to an Afghan army-led rescue operation, as Afghan soldiers lack the skills, experience or equipment. South Korea, which has 210 troops in Afghanistan mostly working on construction and humanitarian projects, also probably lacks the capacity....

Would the U.S. launch a rescue? The kidnappings took place in Ghazni province, where U.S. soldiers were already stationed. Jolyon Spencer of DynamiQ, an Australian-based security and emergency management consultancy, noted that rescue attempts are very risky although the U.S. military could get involved "if the conditions for success are there."

  • PAY RANSOM TO THE TALIBAN

High-level commanders probably wouldn't accept payment, but the lower-level militants holding the hostages could be persuaded, Spencer said. About 70% of kidnappings worldwide are solved through ransom payments, but those payments are not discussed publicly, he said. "However, I'm sure South   Korea politically would be very hesitant to do that because they would be indirectly financing terrorism," Spencer said. "Because it's at the government level, I imagine it would be very difficult to keep the reason for a successful release a secret, so the government would be hesitant to pay a ransom."

  • KEEP NEGOTIATING

Local tribesmen and former Taliban are among the Afghans involved in negotiations, but there has been no sign of a breakthrough, increasing the prospect that the kidnappers could gradually execute the hostages unless their demands are met. So far the militants have killed two men; 16 women and five men remain, though the Taliban says two of the women are critically ill.

While many Afghans don't believe the hard-line militants would kill female hostages — an act many would view as an affront to Islam and Afghanistan's long tradition of hospitality — Abdul Salaam Rocketi, a former Taliban member and now a member of parliament, said it is "very difficult" to know.

While it would be un-Islamic to kill the women, it was also un-Islamic to kill the men, but the Taliban did that anyway, he said.

The Taliban also might use the Koreans' Christianity as justification for killing them, but the Afghan public, at least, would not accept that as legitimate.The Koreans were in Afghanistan as health workers and there is no evidence they were trying to convert Muslims, something that is against Afghan law, said Arsalah Rahmani, the head of a religious commission in parliament and a former official in the Taliban-run government.

Posted by Carl Robichaud on August 02, 2007 at 12:39 PM in Afghan National Army, ISAF / NATO, Religion, Security, Taliban, U.S. Policy |

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