Transcript of Bush-Karzai press conference

Here's the transcript from their brief, upbeat remarks...

Latest Kajaki Dam cost estimates

The latest USAID estimate for the Kajaki Dam appears in today's International Water Power: $150m for the first year, and up to $500m total. Actual cost will probably be much higher -- and still worth every penny.

Progress on the dam is the bellwether of efforts in Helmand: restoring hydroelectric power would have massive symbolic and pragmatic consequences (not to mention create 4,000 jobs...) So it's a huge reconstruction priority--but one which requires sustained security to implement...

• Upgrade planned for Afghan dam International Water Power, UK 09/26/2007.

By the Numbers

Some interesting (and encouraging) figures from Ann Marlowe's Wall Street Journal commentary last month:

• Afghan mobile phone subscribers, September 2006:    2 million
• Current subscribers:                                                 3 million
• Approximate percent of Afghans this comprises:       10%
• Percent of Nangarhar residents with a mobile phone: 31%
• Percent of Laghman residents with a mobile phone:    77%

• Approximate population of Khost province:            1,000,000
• Estimated people from Khost living overseas:           200,000
• Annual remittances sent back to Khost :                   $6-12 million
• USAID spending in Khost, 2002-2006:                        $10 million

Source: Ann Marlowe, On the Road to Jalalabad

Musharraf's appointments signal seriousness about transition

Last week, Pres. Musharraf pledged to step down as chief of the army if elected President next month. His recent re-organization of the military leadership suggests he's serious. He would hardly be as intent to make these changes if he expected to stand pat.

Musharraf promoted two lieutenant generals to top posts:

• Maj. Gen. Nadeem Ijaz Taj was tapped to run the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI).
• Maj. Gen. Mohsin Kamal was posted to the 10th Corp (the nation's most important garrison, based in Rawalpindi)

These promotions allow Musharraf to appoint the current holders of these positions -- ISI chief, Lt. Gen. Ashfaq Ahmed Kiani and Rawalpindi Corp Commander, Lt. Gen. Tariq Majid -- to "Vice Chief" (the army's No. 2 job) & "Chief of General Staff" (the No. 3 post.) Gretchen Peters of ABC News's The Blotter notes that "Analysts and Western officials say both men are moderates, with favorable views of the West and of America."

What are the implications of these moves? The Blotter writes that:

Musharraf promoted several faithful subordinates into key positions and freed up his two most trusted deputies apparently to step into the No. 2 and 3 slots. Analysts say the appointments indicate Musharraf plans to stick to his promise -- made by his lawyer this week before the country's Supreme Court -- to relinquish his post as army chief if re-elected president by the legislature next month.

"These are all trusted deputies of Musharraf," said Talat Massood, a retired defense secretary for Pakistan. "We can expect they will continue to support him and continue his policy of supporting the war on terror."

"No surprises here," said a Western official of the appointments. "He's trying to line up his best men ahead of the elections."

Peters describes Gen. Kiani as "an avid golfer who's considered the most intellectual of Pakistan's senior officers, studied at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas" and Gen. Majid as "Musharraf's star pupil years ago at the Command and Staff College in Quetta...He fits the bill, say insiders, both in terms of his age and past experience, to take over the army."

What will become of the current Vice Chief and the current Chief of the General Staff, who are set to retire next month? The BBC sees this picture as murkier:

The BBC's Sanjay Dasgupta says that this round of appointments is being seen as part of larger move by President Musharraf to place a core group of loyal supporters in key positions before he quits as army chief. Who his successor will be is now the big question in Pakistan's military-dominated politics, he adds.

Next month, two of Gen Musharraf's top deputies in the army retire -- Gen Ehsan Ul Haq, who is the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff committee, and Gen Ahsan Saleem Hayat, who is the vice-chief of army staff.

Some analysts say that one of these two men is being freed up to take over as the army chief after Gen Musharraf.

But others disagree, saying the pair have been around long enough to have developed clout and influence within the military establishment in their own right. Hence they have the potential to become alternative power centres, and Gen Musharraf would prefer a new face, who would owe his promotion, and therefore his loyalty, solely to him.

Image: Ehsan Ul Haq and Ahsan Saleem Hayat upon their appointments to the #2 and #3 positions in 2004. Pakistan Daily Times.

Latest: Webb amendment longshot with Warner switchover

Today John Warner (D-VA) changed his mind and now opposes the Webb measure...seems like a long shot now. From CQ TODAY:

Amendment to Limit Troop Deployments Faces Long Odds Sept. 19, 2007 – 1:35 p.m. By John M. Donnelly, CQ Staff: An amendment to mandate minimum rest times for U.S. troops between deployments faced long odds Wednesday after an influential Republican senator switched his position and said he would vote against it.

John W. Warner, R-Va., a senior Armed Services Committee member who voted for the amendment by Jim Webb, D-Va., when it last came to the floor in July, said he had changed his mind. He said the ranks of military specialists are so thin in many positions that commanders on the ground would be seriously hobbled by mandatory “dwell times” between deployments. Bush administration officials have been furiously lobbying moderate Republican senators to oppose the measure...                                                                            

Webb measure nears support to override filibuster

A measure by Sen. Jim Webb (D-Va) would reduce the number of US troops available for both Iraq and Afghanistan by mandating longer time at home. The amendment hit 56 votes in July and is apparently now closer to the 60 it needs to break a GOP filibuster. The President has said he will veto any such measure, and Webb is nowhere near the 67 votes necessary to override. Still, a story to watch. Here's the rundown from yesterday's Congressional Quarterly:

...After those votes, the Senate intends to move to an amendment by Jim Webb, D-Va., that would require that U.S. troops be given at least as much time at home as they spend deployed to Iraq or Afghanistan. The Webb measure, which netted 56 votes in July, is now closer to the 60 votes needed to cut off an expected Republican filibuster. Among the GOP senators who may support the measure are Specter, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and George V. Voinovich of Ohio.

“We still need at least three Republicans to cross over,” said Senate Majority Whip Richard J. Durbin, D-Ill. “We’re working on it every day.” The Webb measure is significant because its supporters and critics say it could reduce the number of troops available to fight in Iraq and Afghanistan...

Image: Sen. Jim Webb.

The serpents of Medusa's hair

The latest epilogue to Operation Medusa: Canadian forces have re-established control in Zhare and Panjwai (in August, Taliban militants overran local authorities when Canadian troops rotated...) However, this week’s victory was hardly decisive -- the Taliban mostly ceded ground, as has been their modus operandi in recent months -- and will retaliate against the lightly armed police force left behind to consolidate NATO’s gains.

A spokesman for the Canadian forces argued that incorporated learning and new approaches -- e.g. joint checkpoints -- will ensure that this time is different. Army and police training has advanced, and Canada even forced the resignation of a corrupt police chief in Zhari district. Patience is key, as General Champoux has argued: "This has been a shaping year,'' he said, "I think next year will be a decisive year."

But we’ve heard this before. The Canadians have a lot of terrain to cover and a low density of force -- is it realistic to expect the ANA and ANP to hold this area on its own? Can this week’s gains be anything more than ephemeral without additional resources or a new approach?

Canadian Forces Regain Part of Strategic Area in Southern Afghanistan KABUL, Sept. 14, by David Rohde — Canadian forces this week regained control of roughly half of a strategic area outside of the southern city of Kandahar that fell to the Taliban in August, according to Afghan and Canadian officials…Seven hundred Canadian troops, backed by airstrikes and Leopard tanks, met little resistance from Taliban fighters…The Taliban generally have avoided direct clashes with heavily armed NATO forces and instead attacked lightly armed Afghan police forces or carried out suicide and roadside bomb attacks. MORE

Image: Tête de Méduse by Rubens

Afghan Wire hits 100

Some good news for Afghanistan watchers everywhere: not only has Afghan Wire published their 100th newsletter (which provides excellent translations of primary-source writing from Afghanistan) but their new site, according to an email I received, will provide:

* More Information (more profiles; updated profiles)
* More Interactivity (better search functions; interactive maps; more ways to find your information)
* More Breadth (media coverage of Herat and southern Afghanistan)
* More Multimedia (videos and audio content primarily)

I'm looking forward to the added functionality. Keep up the good work!

Oh, you thought I meant unconditional talks?

From the AP:

Qari Yousef Ahmadi appeared to step back from a statement to The Associated Press on Monday that the Taliban would consider negotiations if the Afghan government made a formal offer. He also said other media outlets who reported that he said the Taliban was willing to hold talks now had misquoted him.

"The Taliban will not be ready for negotiations until the U.S. and its allies leave our country," Ahmadi told the AP by satellite phone from an undisclosed location. "We will pursue our jihad against America and its allies until they leave our country. After that ... then the Taliban will be ready for negotiations."

On Sunday, Karzai repeated his previous stance: the government is ready to hold talks with militants.  Ahmadi replied the next day to the AP that the Taliban would consider talks if an offer were made. So much for that approach...But stay tuned.

Controversy over direct US military action in Pakistan misses the point

The latest of Richard Weitz's excellent articles on Afghanistan and Pakistan is available at the World Politics Review (a great new site that provides exclusive daily foreign policy analysis from contributors across 40 countries.)

Weitz argues that the discovery, during the Tillman investigation, of specific US rules of engagement for when US forces are authorized to enter Pakistan -- along with Barack Obama's remarks that "if President Musharraf won't act, we will" -- leaves the impression that US efforts to capture the Big Three (bin Laden, al-Zawahri, and Mullah Omar) are primarily about direct military action. The assumption that seriousness of purpose against the Taliban and Al Qaeda can be measured by one's willingness to cross the border is mistaken and counterproductive. Moreover, as Weitz notes, a focus on what the Pentagon is doing threatens "to obscure the small role that such direct military operations play in the overall U.S. effort to prevent Taliban insurgents from using Pakistan as a support base for their operations in Afghanistan."

Non-Military Tools Neglected in Debate Over Afghan-Pakistani Border Operations, by Richard Weitz 31 Aug 2007 World Politics Review Exclusive