Transcript of Bush-Karzai press conference

Here's the transcript from their brief, upbeat remarks...

Latest Kajaki Dam cost estimates

The latest USAID estimate for the Kajaki Dam appears in today's International Water Power: $150m for the first year, and up to $500m total. Actual cost will probably be much higher -- and still worth every penny.

Progress on the dam is the bellwether of efforts in Helmand: restoring hydroelectric power would have massive symbolic and pragmatic consequences (not to mention create 4,000 jobs...) So it's a huge reconstruction priority--but one which requires sustained security to implement...

• Upgrade planned for Afghan dam International Water Power, UK 09/26/2007.

By the Numbers

Some interesting (and encouraging) figures from Ann Marlowe's Wall Street Journal commentary last month:

• Afghan mobile phone subscribers, September 2006:    2 million
• Current subscribers:                                                 3 million
• Approximate percent of Afghans this comprises:       10%
• Percent of Nangarhar residents with a mobile phone: 31%
• Percent of Laghman residents with a mobile phone:    77%

• Approximate population of Khost province:            1,000,000
• Estimated people from Khost living overseas:           200,000
• Annual remittances sent back to Khost :                   $6-12 million
• USAID spending in Khost, 2002-2006:                        $10 million

Source: Ann Marlowe, On the Road to Jalalabad

Musharraf's appointments signal seriousness about transition

Last week, Pres. Musharraf pledged to step down as chief of the army if elected President next month. His recent re-organization of the military leadership suggests he's serious. He would hardly be as intent to make these changes if he expected to stand pat.

Musharraf promoted two lieutenant generals to top posts:

• Maj. Gen. Nadeem Ijaz Taj was tapped to run the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI).
• Maj. Gen. Mohsin Kamal was posted to the 10th Corp (the nation's most important garrison, based in Rawalpindi)

These promotions allow Musharraf to appoint the current holders of these positions -- ISI chief, Lt. Gen. Ashfaq Ahmed Kiani and Rawalpindi Corp Commander, Lt. Gen. Tariq Majid -- to "Vice Chief" (the army's No. 2 job) & "Chief of General Staff" (the No. 3 post.) Gretchen Peters of ABC News's The Blotter notes that "Analysts and Western officials say both men are moderates, with favorable views of the West and of America."

What are the implications of these moves? The Blotter writes that:

Musharraf promoted several faithful subordinates into key positions and freed up his two most trusted deputies apparently to step into the No. 2 and 3 slots. Analysts say the appointments indicate Musharraf plans to stick to his promise -- made by his lawyer this week before the country's Supreme Court -- to relinquish his post as army chief if re-elected president by the legislature next month.

"These are all trusted deputies of Musharraf," said Talat Massood, a retired defense secretary for Pakistan. "We can expect they will continue to support him and continue his policy of supporting the war on terror."

"No surprises here," said a Western official of the appointments. "He's trying to line up his best men ahead of the elections."

Peters describes Gen. Kiani as "an avid golfer who's considered the most intellectual of Pakistan's senior officers, studied at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas" and Gen. Majid as "Musharraf's star pupil years ago at the Command and Staff College in Quetta...He fits the bill, say insiders, both in terms of his age and past experience, to take over the army."

What will become of the current Vice Chief and the current Chief of the General Staff, who are set to retire next month? The BBC sees this picture as murkier:

The BBC's Sanjay Dasgupta says that this round of appointments is being seen as part of larger move by President Musharraf to place a core group of loyal supporters in key positions before he quits as army chief. Who his successor will be is now the big question in Pakistan's military-dominated politics, he adds.

Next month, two of Gen Musharraf's top deputies in the army retire -- Gen Ehsan Ul Haq, who is the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff committee, and Gen Ahsan Saleem Hayat, who is the vice-chief of army staff.

Some analysts say that one of these two men is being freed up to take over as the army chief after Gen Musharraf.

But others disagree, saying the pair have been around long enough to have developed clout and influence within the military establishment in their own right. Hence they have the potential to become alternative power centres, and Gen Musharraf would prefer a new face, who would owe his promotion, and therefore his loyalty, solely to him.

Image: Ehsan Ul Haq and Ahsan Saleem Hayat upon their appointments to the #2 and #3 positions in 2004. Pakistan Daily Times.

Latest: Webb amendment longshot with Warner switchover

Today John Warner (D-VA) changed his mind and now opposes the Webb measure...seems like a long shot now. From CQ TODAY:

Amendment to Limit Troop Deployments Faces Long Odds Sept. 19, 2007 – 1:35 p.m. By John M. Donnelly, CQ Staff: An amendment to mandate minimum rest times for U.S. troops between deployments faced long odds Wednesday after an influential Republican senator switched his position and said he would vote against it.

John W. Warner, R-Va., a senior Armed Services Committee member who voted for the amendment by Jim Webb, D-Va., when it last came to the floor in July, said he had changed his mind. He said the ranks of military specialists are so thin in many positions that commanders on the ground would be seriously hobbled by mandatory “dwell times” between deployments. Bush administration officials have been furiously lobbying moderate Republican senators to oppose the measure...                                                                            

Webb measure nears support to override filibuster

A measure by Sen. Jim Webb (D-Va) would reduce the number of US troops available for both Iraq and Afghanistan by mandating longer time at home. The amendment hit 56 votes in July and is apparently now closer to the 60 it needs to break a GOP filibuster. The President has said he will veto any such measure, and Webb is nowhere near the 67 votes necessary to override. Still, a story to watch. Here's the rundown from yesterday's Congressional Quarterly:

...After those votes, the Senate intends to move to an amendment by Jim Webb, D-Va., that would require that U.S. troops be given at least as much time at home as they spend deployed to Iraq or Afghanistan. The Webb measure, which netted 56 votes in July, is now closer to the 60 votes needed to cut off an expected Republican filibuster. Among the GOP senators who may support the measure are Specter, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and George V. Voinovich of Ohio.

“We still need at least three Republicans to cross over,” said Senate Majority Whip Richard J. Durbin, D-Ill. “We’re working on it every day.” The Webb measure is significant because its supporters and critics say it could reduce the number of troops available to fight in Iraq and Afghanistan...

Image: Sen. Jim Webb.

The serpents of Medusa's hair

The latest epilogue to Operation Medusa: Canadian forces have re-established control in Zhare and Panjwai (in August, Taliban militants overran local authorities when Canadian troops rotated...) However, this week’s victory was hardly decisive -- the Taliban mostly ceded ground, as has been their modus operandi in recent months -- and will retaliate against the lightly armed police force left behind to consolidate NATO’s gains.

A spokesman for the Canadian forces argued that incorporated learning and new approaches -- e.g. joint checkpoints -- will ensure that this time is different. Army and police training has advanced, and Canada even forced the resignation of a corrupt police chief in Zhari district. Patience is key, as General Champoux has argued: "This has been a shaping year,'' he said, "I think next year will be a decisive year."

But we’ve heard this before. The Canadians have a lot of terrain to cover and a low density of force -- is it realistic to expect the ANA and ANP to hold this area on its own? Can this week’s gains be anything more than ephemeral without additional resources or a new approach?

Canadian Forces Regain Part of Strategic Area in Southern Afghanistan KABUL, Sept. 14, by David Rohde — Canadian forces this week regained control of roughly half of a strategic area outside of the southern city of Kandahar that fell to the Taliban in August, according to Afghan and Canadian officials…Seven hundred Canadian troops, backed by airstrikes and Leopard tanks, met little resistance from Taliban fighters…The Taliban generally have avoided direct clashes with heavily armed NATO forces and instead attacked lightly armed Afghan police forces or carried out suicide and roadside bomb attacks. MORE

Image: Tête de Méduse by Rubens

Afghan Wire hits 100

Some good news for Afghanistan watchers everywhere: not only has Afghan Wire published their 100th newsletter (which provides excellent translations of primary-source writing from Afghanistan) but their new site, according to an email I received, will provide:

* More Information (more profiles; updated profiles)
* More Interactivity (better search functions; interactive maps; more ways to find your information)
* More Breadth (media coverage of Herat and southern Afghanistan)
* More Multimedia (videos and audio content primarily)

I'm looking forward to the added functionality. Keep up the good work!

Oh, you thought I meant unconditional talks?

From the AP:

Qari Yousef Ahmadi appeared to step back from a statement to The Associated Press on Monday that the Taliban would consider negotiations if the Afghan government made a formal offer. He also said other media outlets who reported that he said the Taliban was willing to hold talks now had misquoted him.

"The Taliban will not be ready for negotiations until the U.S. and its allies leave our country," Ahmadi told the AP by satellite phone from an undisclosed location. "We will pursue our jihad against America and its allies until they leave our country. After that ... then the Taliban will be ready for negotiations."

On Sunday, Karzai repeated his previous stance: the government is ready to hold talks with militants.  Ahmadi replied the next day to the AP that the Taliban would consider talks if an offer were made. So much for that approach...But stay tuned.

Controversy over direct US military action in Pakistan misses the point

The latest of Richard Weitz's excellent articles on Afghanistan and Pakistan is available at the World Politics Review (a great new site that provides exclusive daily foreign policy analysis from contributors across 40 countries.)

Weitz argues that the discovery, during the Tillman investigation, of specific US rules of engagement for when US forces are authorized to enter Pakistan -- along with Barack Obama's remarks that "if President Musharraf won't act, we will" -- leaves the impression that US efforts to capture the Big Three (bin Laden, al-Zawahri, and Mullah Omar) are primarily about direct military action. The assumption that seriousness of purpose against the Taliban and Al Qaeda can be measured by one's willingness to cross the border is mistaken and counterproductive. Moreover, as Weitz notes, a focus on what the Pentagon is doing threatens "to obscure the small role that such direct military operations play in the overall U.S. effort to prevent Taliban insurgents from using Pakistan as a support base for their operations in Afghanistan."

Non-Military Tools Neglected in Debate Over Afghan-Pakistani Border Operations, by Richard Weitz 31 Aug 2007 World Politics Review Exclusive

Ahmed Rashid on Washington's Pakistan plan

Rashid argues that the army's morale is crumbling and the Sharif incident could well lead to a standoff with the supreme court. Meanwhile, Washington's plan for a Bhutto-Musharraf power-share has not profited from publicity; Bhutto is now seen "as part of some Bush game plan"  as well as too close to the general. Worth a read...

A distraction from Washington's grand design, Daily Telegraph, Ahmed Rashid, Sept 11, 2007: Nawaz Sharif is not part of the American script for the war on terror and the future of Pakistan, written by mandarins in the US State Department...The real script is to save the beleaguered Gen Pervez Musharraf, and involves another former prime minister in exile -- the fragrant Daughter of the East, Benazir Bhutto. When in a few weeks' time she repeats yesterday's homecoming saga from London, she will be welcomed by the very police that manhandled Mr Sharif and she will be allowed to lead a procession to her home town.

That is because the West is desperate to bring her and Gen Musharraf into a loveless marriage so that the general can combat the terrorists and the lady play democracy.. .MORE

Don Rumsfeld, microlender to Afghanistan?

Donald Rumsfeld's first major interview since leaving office, on the newsstands in GQ next month, dubs Afghanistan "a big success" and announces, among other things, that he's starting a foundation that will focus on post-graduate fellowships, a lecture series, post-Soviet reform, and -- you guessed it -- microlending in Afghanistan.

"The third thing is, we're interested in microenterprise. Most of the poor countries of the world—I shouldn't say most—a number of the poorer countries of the world have corrupt governments, and so when nations help nations, a lot of that money doesn't end up going to the people; it gets stuck in graft and corruption." He explains that before he came back to government, he worked on microloans with some outfit doing work in India and was impressed by it. He wants to do it in Afghanistan.

Interesting: Rumsfeld has discovered that graft and corruption are an impediment to Afghanistan's future. Has it crossed his mind, even fleetingly, that the policies he pushed so hard for -- a light engagement, the empowerment of warlords, an allergy to statebuilding and rule of law programs -- permitted the culture of impunity that allows Afghanistan's kleptocrats to flourish?  Am I being too harsh here?

Below is another excerpt from the interview (about the Pentagon and its limitations...) MORE

Afghanistan's "land mafia"

A 200 word piece today by the BBC highlights an important trend and leaves us wanting more details. The emergence of the so-called "land mafia" (a term that probably makes it sound more centrally organized than it us...) has broad repercussions, especially since Afghanistan lacks enforceable, consistent land rights. Multiple land registries allow well-connected strongmen to stake claims with impunity, and the lack of a functioning legal system leaves victims with no recourse.

The lack of security vis a vis land and property rights remains one of the major impediments to investment in Afghanistan. This briefly received some attention in 2003 when refugees streamed home -- only to find someone else there. It's still a big issue today, but the last serious work I've seen on this is the AREU's 2003 report ( Land Rights in Crisis). Sounds to me like a prize-winning expose just waiting for the right journalist...

Powerful 'grab Afghanistan land' By Stephanie Irvine (BBC)  Sept 6: The Afghan urban development minister says land is being appropriated illegally by powerful individuals at a rate of two sq km (0.8 sq miles) a day. Former military commanders, members of parliament and senior officials are seizing land and then selling it on illegally, says Yousaf Pashthun.

Image: Urban Development Minister Mohammad Yousaf Pashthun. BBC.

London confronts Beijing over Chinese weapons in Taliban hands

The BBC reports today that London has privately complained to Beijing that Chinese-made weaponry has being found in the hands of the Taliban. Normally this is not news -- Afghanistan is awash in small arms, much of it manufactured in China. However, the article implies (citing conversations with experts) that because the type of weaponry includes HN-5 anti-aircraft missiles and armor piercing ammo it is unlikely that it was provided by the traditional channel (Pakistan's ISI) and may instead be coming through Iran.

I'm not sure I buy the assumption that the ISI wouldn't provide high-tech weaponry to the Taliban simply because these arms could be used against them -- weapons transfers went to militants in the past under similar circumstances. Moreover, the flow of arms through any of these nations does not guarantee official complicity -- there are lots of smugglers and corrupt officials willing to run guns to make a buck.

Nevertheless, there is an interesting story here. It is not that Chinese weapons are in the hands of the Taliban or that the Taliban is getting arms from across the Iranian border (which US officials have credibly demonstrated). It is instead why Britain chose this moment to raise these questions for the first time with Beijing. Has the nature of these transfers changed? Is this conversation a function of the tensions surrounding Iran and its nuclear program?

Taleban 'getting Chinese arms' By Paul Danahar, (BBC): The BBC has been told that on several occasions Chinese arms have been recovered after attacks on British and American troops by Afghan insurgents. The authorities in Beijing have promised to carry out an investigation. This appears to be the first time Britain has asked China how its arms are ending up with the Taleban. At a meeting held recently at the Chinese foreign ministry in Beijing, a British official expressed the UK's growing concern about the incidents...MORE   

Image: A Chinese-made HN-5 (Hongying 5 "Red Cherry") shoulder launched missile (an improved version of the Russian-made SA-7). FAS.

A Taliban leader behind kidnapping reported killed

The AP reports that "Afghan security forces killed a Taliban commander they alleged Tuesday to be behind the July kidnappings of 23 South Korean church workers." The government raid is one of several military operations in Ghazni since the hostages were released (another was conducted by the coalition) and is part of a strategy to reassert authority there and to save face after the hostage crisis. The timing suggests the coalition knew where these guys were quartered and were just waiting for the conclusion of the hostage standoff before striking.

American military officials also reported that a dozen Taliban were killed in a separate five-hour battle in Sha Wali Kot district in Kandahar.

Reports: Taliban was paid $2.46m for hostages

With the rest of the South Korean hostages home free, speculation has begun over whether Seoul paid a ransom for their release. South Korea has denied any payment, as has the Taliban. But this tells us precisely nothing, since if a ransom were paid, a non-disclosure clause would no doubt have been part of the agreement.

Asahi Shimbun, on the other hand, has quoted an unnamed Afghan mediator as saying that the release was secured for the curiously precise sum of $2.46 million. Seems plausible, since the other Korean concessions don't add up to much of value for the Taliban...