Musharraf's appointments signal seriousness about transition

Last week, Pres. Musharraf pledged to step down as chief of the army if elected President next month. His recent re-organization of the military leadership suggests he's serious. He would hardly be as intent to make these changes if he expected to stand pat.

Musharraf promoted two lieutenant generals to top posts:

• Maj. Gen. Nadeem Ijaz Taj was tapped to run the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI).
• Maj. Gen. Mohsin Kamal was posted to the 10th Corp (the nation's most important garrison, based in Rawalpindi)

These promotions allow Musharraf to appoint the current holders of these positions -- ISI chief, Lt. Gen. Ashfaq Ahmed Kiani and Rawalpindi Corp Commander, Lt. Gen. Tariq Majid -- to "Vice Chief" (the army's No. 2 job) & "Chief of General Staff" (the No. 3 post.) Gretchen Peters of ABC News's The Blotter notes that "Analysts and Western officials say both men are moderates, with favorable views of the West and of America."

What are the implications of these moves? The Blotter writes that:

Musharraf promoted several faithful subordinates into key positions and freed up his two most trusted deputies apparently to step into the No. 2 and 3 slots. Analysts say the appointments indicate Musharraf plans to stick to his promise -- made by his lawyer this week before the country's Supreme Court -- to relinquish his post as army chief if re-elected president by the legislature next month.

"These are all trusted deputies of Musharraf," said Talat Massood, a retired defense secretary for Pakistan. "We can expect they will continue to support him and continue his policy of supporting the war on terror."

"No surprises here," said a Western official of the appointments. "He's trying to line up his best men ahead of the elections."

Peters describes Gen. Kiani as "an avid golfer who's considered the most intellectual of Pakistan's senior officers, studied at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas" and Gen. Majid as "Musharraf's star pupil years ago at the Command and Staff College in Quetta...He fits the bill, say insiders, both in terms of his age and past experience, to take over the army."

What will become of the current Vice Chief and the current Chief of the General Staff, who are set to retire next month? The BBC sees this picture as murkier:

The BBC's Sanjay Dasgupta says that this round of appointments is being seen as part of larger move by President Musharraf to place a core group of loyal supporters in key positions before he quits as army chief. Who his successor will be is now the big question in Pakistan's military-dominated politics, he adds.

Next month, two of Gen Musharraf's top deputies in the army retire -- Gen Ehsan Ul Haq, who is the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff committee, and Gen Ahsan Saleem Hayat, who is the vice-chief of army staff.

Some analysts say that one of these two men is being freed up to take over as the army chief after Gen Musharraf.

But others disagree, saying the pair have been around long enough to have developed clout and influence within the military establishment in their own right. Hence they have the potential to become alternative power centres, and Gen Musharraf would prefer a new face, who would owe his promotion, and therefore his loyalty, solely to him.

Image: Ehsan Ul Haq and Ahsan Saleem Hayat upon their appointments to the #2 and #3 positions in 2004. Pakistan Daily Times.

Comments

[A.H Amin]

Musharraf Reshuffles the Army but the Fatal Decisions are yet to come

ISLAMABAD—Pakistani Press Report " President General Musharraf on Friday appointed a new ISI chief and made a number of other key military appointments in a move seen as the reflection of his desire to retain influence even after quitting the army chief slot. Major General Nadeem Taj, the incumbent Military Intelligence Chief was promoted Friday to the rank of Lieutenant General and appointed as the new head of the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI). He will replace Lieutenant General Pervez Ashfaq Kiyani, which strengthened the speculations that the outgoing ISI chief may be considered for promotion as full General and appointed either as chairman of the joint chiefs of staff committee of the armed forces or chief of army staff after President Musharraf doff his uniform.General Kiyani has been active in recent past as a key negotiator on the front of power sharing agreement with former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto on General Musharraf's behest. General Taj, the new ISI chief served as General Musharraf's military secretary at the time of the coup that brought him to power in October 1999.
In another important move, Lieutenant General Tariq Majeed, commander of the army's 10th corps was replaced by newly promoted Lieutenant General Mohsin Kamal.
General Majeed is also being tipped as another strong contender for the army chief's slot.
In 1999, as a Major General based in Lahore, General Majeed reportedly ordered his troops to seize the family estate of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif.
According to a defense analyst, who did not want to be named General Kiyani and General Majeed are reputed to be pro-western commanders of Pakistan army who will continue to support Islamabad's contribution to the war on terror.
Meanwhile, an ISPR press release said that four other Major Generals of Pakistan army were also promoted to the rank of Lt. General with immediate effect.
Those who have been promoted included Major General Javed Zia, General Headquarters, Major General Shujat Zamir Dar, Director General Anti Narcotics Force, Major General Muhammad Asghar, Rector, National University of Science Technology (NUST) and Major General Jamil Haider, General Headquarters. "
*Maj-Gen Nadeem Taj, Director General Inter Services Intelligence
*Maj-Gen Javed Zia, General Headquarters
*Maj-Gen Shujat Zamir Dar, Director General Anti-Narcotics Force
*Maj-Gen Mohsin Kamal, Commander Rawalpindi Corps
*Maj-Gen Muhammad Asghar, Rector,
National University of Sciences & Tech
*Maj-Gen Jamil Haider, General Headquarters
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The above was an analysis from a person who does not know the Pakistan Army.Pakistan at this stage needs a very strong as well as able man to steer it out of the storm.The above mentioned hardly have the capability to do so.

What is needed is a general who knows when to use force and when to exercisee restrain.General Majeed or General Kiani may be good at staff but may not be able to command in crisis situation that Pakistan will face in 2007 and 2008.The crisis will be internal and external.Internal as the ongoing insurgency , full fledged in the NWFP and low key in Balochistan.External challenge may come from a US ultimatum to Pakistan to denuclearise or to be destroyed.This would not be as simple as being a military secretary or to negotiate with Benazir.

As far as I understand and have seen the army , the only man who can lead the Pakistan Army in this situation is Lieutenant General Sajjad Akram the 1 Corps Commander.He has the fire as well as the insight to lead.Specially in a situation where an unforeseen unnatural death removes General Musharraf from the scene altogether.

The other contenders if they can be called lack that rare military talent required to lead Pakistan in 2007 and 2008 which fatefully would be the most crucial grave and possibly most fatal years of Pakistan.To lead in crisis is not as simple as running an intelligence agency or dealing with the drab details of protocol.

War is not about being a good sycophant or a good staff officer.It is hell and few in the highest positions have ever distinguished themselves for decisiveness.

The question is not to select a man who is pro West or otherwise.The question is to select a man who can perform the balancing act in face of allegations that a Punjabi army is invading Pashtun villages and yet deal with the crisis.Even the West needs a great general to lead Pakistan Army otherwise the Bagran Airbase may be a good target for the Pakistani nuclear device in wrong hands.Fear made men believe in the worst.But in this case even the worst will be more worst than any worst.Sometimes we are decieved by the looming crisis.

Lets hope that Musharraf's selection as Vice Chief or Chief does not prove to be General Ian Hamilton of Gallipoli fame or General Hooker of Chancelerrosville fame !

Posterity will not forgive Musharraf if he selects the wrong man !

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