Ahmed Rashid on Washington's Pakistan plan

Rashid argues that the army's morale is crumbling and the Sharif incident could well lead to a standoff with the supreme court. Meanwhile, Washington's plan for a Bhutto-Musharraf power-share has not profited from publicity; Bhutto is now seen "as part of some Bush game plan"  as well as too close to the general. Worth a read...

A distraction from Washington's grand design, Daily Telegraph, Ahmed Rashid, Sept 11, 2007: Nawaz Sharif is not part of the American script for the war on terror and the future of Pakistan, written by mandarins in the US State Department...The real script is to save the beleaguered Gen Pervez Musharraf, and involves another former prime minister in exile -- the fragrant Daughter of the East, Benazir Bhutto. When in a few weeks' time she repeats yesterday's homecoming saga from London, she will be welcomed by the very police that manhandled Mr Sharif and she will be allowed to lead a procession to her home town.

That is because the West is desperate to bring her and Gen Musharraf into a loveless marriage so that the general can combat the terrorists and the lady play democracy.. .MORE

Don Rumsfeld, microlender to Afghanistan?

Donald Rumsfeld's first major interview since leaving office, on the newsstands in GQ next month, dubs Afghanistan "a big success" and announces, among other things, that he's starting a foundation that will focus on post-graduate fellowships, a lecture series, post-Soviet reform, and -- you guessed it -- microlending in Afghanistan.

"The third thing is, we're interested in microenterprise. Most of the poor countries of the world—I shouldn't say most—a number of the poorer countries of the world have corrupt governments, and so when nations help nations, a lot of that money doesn't end up going to the people; it gets stuck in graft and corruption." He explains that before he came back to government, he worked on microloans with some outfit doing work in India and was impressed by it. He wants to do it in Afghanistan.

Interesting: Rumsfeld has discovered that graft and corruption are an impediment to Afghanistan's future. Has it crossed his mind, even fleetingly, that the policies he pushed so hard for -- a light engagement, the empowerment of warlords, an allergy to statebuilding and rule of law programs -- permitted the culture of impunity that allows Afghanistan's kleptocrats to flourish?  Am I being too harsh here?

Below is another excerpt from the interview (about the Pentagon and its limitations...) MORE

Afghanistan's "land mafia"

A 200 word piece today by the BBC highlights an important trend and leaves us wanting more details. The emergence of the so-called "land mafia" (a term that probably makes it sound more centrally organized than it us...) has broad repercussions, especially since Afghanistan lacks enforceable, consistent land rights. Multiple land registries allow well-connected strongmen to stake claims with impunity, and the lack of a functioning legal system leaves victims with no recourse.

The lack of security vis a vis land and property rights remains one of the major impediments to investment in Afghanistan. This briefly received some attention in 2003 when refugees streamed home -- only to find someone else there. It's still a big issue today, but the last serious work I've seen on this is the AREU's 2003 report ( Land Rights in Crisis). Sounds to me like a prize-winning expose just waiting for the right journalist...

Powerful 'grab Afghanistan land' By Stephanie Irvine (BBC)  Sept 6: The Afghan urban development minister says land is being appropriated illegally by powerful individuals at a rate of two sq km (0.8 sq miles) a day. Former military commanders, members of parliament and senior officials are seizing land and then selling it on illegally, says Yousaf Pashthun.

Image: Urban Development Minister Mohammad Yousaf Pashthun. BBC.

London confronts Beijing over Chinese weapons in Taliban hands

The BBC reports today that London has privately complained to Beijing that Chinese-made weaponry has being found in the hands of the Taliban. Normally this is not news -- Afghanistan is awash in small arms, much of it manufactured in China. However, the article implies (citing conversations with experts) that because the type of weaponry includes HN-5 anti-aircraft missiles and armor piercing ammo it is unlikely that it was provided by the traditional channel (Pakistan's ISI) and may instead be coming through Iran.

I'm not sure I buy the assumption that the ISI wouldn't provide high-tech weaponry to the Taliban simply because these arms could be used against them -- weapons transfers went to militants in the past under similar circumstances. Moreover, the flow of arms through any of these nations does not guarantee official complicity -- there are lots of smugglers and corrupt officials willing to run guns to make a buck.

Nevertheless, there is an interesting story here. It is not that Chinese weapons are in the hands of the Taliban or that the Taliban is getting arms from across the Iranian border (which US officials have credibly demonstrated). It is instead why Britain chose this moment to raise these questions for the first time with Beijing. Has the nature of these transfers changed? Is this conversation a function of the tensions surrounding Iran and its nuclear program?

Taleban 'getting Chinese arms' By Paul Danahar, (BBC): The BBC has been told that on several occasions Chinese arms have been recovered after attacks on British and American troops by Afghan insurgents. The authorities in Beijing have promised to carry out an investigation. This appears to be the first time Britain has asked China how its arms are ending up with the Taleban. At a meeting held recently at the Chinese foreign ministry in Beijing, a British official expressed the UK's growing concern about the incidents...MORE   

Image: A Chinese-made HN-5 (Hongying 5 "Red Cherry") shoulder launched missile (an improved version of the Russian-made SA-7). FAS.

A Taliban leader behind kidnapping reported killed

The AP reports that "Afghan security forces killed a Taliban commander they alleged Tuesday to be behind the July kidnappings of 23 South Korean church workers." The government raid is one of several military operations in Ghazni since the hostages were released (another was conducted by the coalition) and is part of a strategy to reassert authority there and to save face after the hostage crisis. The timing suggests the coalition knew where these guys were quartered and were just waiting for the conclusion of the hostage standoff before striking.

American military officials also reported that a dozen Taliban were killed in a separate five-hour battle in Sha Wali Kot district in Kandahar.

Reports: Taliban was paid $2.46m for hostages

With the rest of the South Korean hostages home free, speculation has begun over whether Seoul paid a ransom for their release. South Korea has denied any payment, as has the Taliban. But this tells us precisely nothing, since if a ransom were paid, a non-disclosure clause would no doubt have been part of the agreement.

Asahi Shimbun, on the other hand, has quoted an unnamed Afghan mediator as saying that the release was secured for the curiously precise sum of $2.46 million. Seems plausible, since the other Korean concessions don't add up to much of value for the Taliban...