Thinking like an insurgent: the Army's new academy

The Wall St Journal has a front page, 2,300 word piece this morning on the U.S. Army's "Afghanistan Counterinsurgency Academy", which was established this April to improve tactics. Last year the Army unveiled a new counterinsurgency doctrine, but its dissemination has been slow; when one of its authors, Lt. Col. John Nagl went to Afghanistan he saw "uneven understanding of counterinsurgency principles."

Capt. Dan Helmer, the 26-year old Rhode Scholar who set up the 'school' in six weeks notes that "We're trying to win an argument that supporting the government is worth risking your life for." That's a tough sell right now, and requires an approach which is 80% military and 20% political, according to Helmer. 

The Army says they've made great progress this year in giving troops Afghanistan-specific training before deployment, but current deployment patterns aren't providing enough time for learning. "There isn't enough time between being told that they're going and getting them through the training," says Lou Gelling, deputy commander of the Army's battle command training program. "That's the reality of it." Sounds like a lot of the training right now is supplemental, not comprehensive: five day courses for 60 soldiers at a time in a makeshift classroom.

As usual, one of the central problems ties back to Afghanistan's status as America's "second war":

The counterinsurgency training sometimes seems targeted more toward Iraq, according to Capt. Helmer and Col. Nagl. Of the 90 men under Col. Nagl's command, almost all are Iraq veterans and just one has served in Afghanistan. Even Capt. Helmer's orders to Afghanistan included the mistaken, but telling, instruction to take a course in Arabic -- a language spoken in Iraq, but not in Afghanistan.

The article is subscriber only content, but here are a few excerpts:

In Counterinsurgency Class, Soldiers Think Like Taliban, Wall Street Journal, By MICHAEL M. PHILLIPS, Nov 30, KABUL:A natural-born insurgent, Sgt. First Class Jacob Stockdill was brimming with malicious suggestions when a group of American soldiers and Afghan security men sat down last month to plot their own defeat. MORE

Competing with opium poppy?

Well, Afghanistan has finally found a crop that can compete with poppy...

Afghanistan Cannabis Crop Up 40 Percent, By RAHIM FAIEZ KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) — The fields of Balkh province in northern Afghanistan were free of opium poppies this year, a success touted often by Afghan and international officials. But one look at Mohammad Alam's fields uncovers an emerging drug problem.

Ten-foot-tall cannabis plants flourish in Alam's fields. The crop — the source of both marijuana and hashish — can be just as profitable as opium but draws none of the scrutiny from Afghan officials bent on eradicating poppies.

Cannabis cultivation rose 40 percent in Afghanistan this year, to 173,000 acres from 123,550 in 2006, the U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime estimated in its 2007 opium survey. The crop is being grown in at least 18 of Afghanistan's 34 provinces, according to the survey released last month.

The U.N. report singles out Balkh as a "leading example" of an opium-free province, saying other areas should follow "the model of this northern region where leadership, incentives and security have led farmers to turn their backs on opium." However, a section of the report says the increase in marijuana cultivation "gives cause for concern."

Out for holidays until Nov 27

A happy thanksgiving to all.

Suicide bomb hits governor's compound in Nimruz; another averted in Kabul

Another fatal suicide attack in a province that rarely sees them (Nimruz).

Note also the clip on a Pakistani suicide bomber that stopped in Kabul as he attempted to board a bus filled with military trainers. Disaster was averted because of the quick thinking of a guard. MORE

Quoteboard

"If you're coming as our friends, don't. If you're coming as our enemies, we will fight you."
     - Zmarai, Arghandab district police chief, in response to Taliban threats.
MORE...

Classified proposal: enlist Pakistan's tribes against AQ

US military officials confirmed this weekend that a special operations plan is in the works to arm and empower Pakistani tribal leaders against foreign extremists. The proposal is modeled on efforts in Anbar province, Iraq, where Sunni sheiks were enlisted to turn local Iraqis against Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia.

The Times notes that "Some other elements of the campaign have been approved in principle by the Americans and Pakistanis and await financing, like $350 million over several years to help train and equip the Frontier Corps, a paramilitary force that now has about 85,000 members and is recruited from border tribes" but adds that "the classified proposal to enlist tribal leaders is new."

The story also notes that a group of Pakistan experts convened in March thought the proposal had its merits, but that successes 'would be difficult to achieve, particularly in the north (Bajaur) and south (North and South Waziristam.' Not only has the tribal leadership been eviscerated in these regions, but there is a great skepticism about working with the United States and the Pakistani army. This seems to me the great -- and perhaps insurmountable -- challenge with such an approach...

Gordon Adams on the Pentagon-Pakistan "slush fund"

Gordon Adams has a great post on Democracy Arsenal which takes a closer look at Pentagon payments to Pakistan (which are only now coming under scrutiny in congress). Here's a clip (Note: there's more on DoD's usurpation of roles once performed by State in Adam's Bulletin of Atomic Scientists article...):

The Los Angeles Times of November 18, 2007 reports that the Pentagon is looking into Coalition Support payments to Pakistan (of which $5.3 b have been made to date), because documentation of the Pakistani spending supposedly being reimbursed is too thin...One unnamed official, who tracks these payments, told the LA Times: “"Backdoor subsidies is what it can look like to some more skeptical observers, because there hasn't been good oversight and the amounts involved have been so great.  There is suspicion that it's a slush fund."

No kidding! Count me a “skeptical observer.”  So now the Pentagon, which has no expertise at making foreign assistance payments directly to other governments or at tracking them after they are made, are going to play catch-up ball with this program. MORE

Sarah Chayes on Arghandab, the Taliban, and GoA meddling

Sarah Chayes has a piece today in the Washington Post in which she recalls, from her front row seat, the Taliban incursion into Arghandab in the wake of Mullah Naqib's heart attack.

Her verdict is deeply troubling: despite a successful coalition counterattack, the Taliban operation  "was a deft, successful psychological operations action":

It said that, despite the likelihood that they would attack after the death of Mullah Naqib, no obstacle was thrown up to oppose them, and they were able to walk into the district. The targeting of the mullah's house was a deliberate affront. It said: "You see, o men of no honor? You can't even protect his house. You are nothing now." The sum of these messages was aimed at the ordinary people who are the prize in any insurgency: Our encroachment is inevitable, the Taliban said. You should align yourselves with the inevitable.

Equally troubling is the Government of Afghanistan's response. Immediately after Mullah Naqib's death, President Karzai, along with his two brothers and the governor of Kandahar, "interfered in the recent selection of a new elder, sidelining a man who had been Mullah Naqib's deputy during the anti-Soviet jihad." "If anyone knew how to fight the Taliban in Arghandab, it was he," argues Chayes, "And yet the government's machinations were plainly aimed at shutting him out" in favor of a more pliable replacement, the untried son of Mullah Naqib. Their goal, she implies, is to ram through an alluring -- but dangerously flawed  -- reconciliation with the Taliban.

A Mullah Dies, and War Comes Knocking, By Sarah Chayes, Nov 18, KANDAHAR: Wednesday, Oct. 31: I woke to the sound of artillery thudding -- like the beat of a heavy heart. It was Afghan army batteries firing into Arghandab, at new Taliban positions there. Through several nights, I had been listening, my ears pricking like a dog's, to the faint popping of gunfire, the clattering of helicopters, the whine of personnel carriers speeding along the roads, falling asleep only when the morning call to prayer rang out in the pre-dawn chill.

I can't explain how this felt, the penetration of war to this crucial part of Kandahar, where I have lived for six years. Arghandab district, with its riot of tangled fruit trees, is the lung of Kandahar province; its meandering, stone-studded river is the artery of the whole region. Arghandab is shade and water, and mud-walled orchards, and mulberries and apricots, and pomegranates the size of grapefruits hanging from the willowy branches. MORE

World Policy Journal piece

Below is an excerpt from a piece I wrote for this month's World Policy Journal. In it I argue that a too-narrow focus on counterinsurgency operations has undermined the mission in Afghanistan. The challenge today is recalibrating our approach to combine the right combination of military and non-military tools. You can download the full article here.

Buying Time in Afghanistan By Carl Robichaud, World Policy Journal, Fall 2007:   Afghanistan is increasingly seen as Iraq in slow motion. It is not. The headlines of car bombs and casualty tolls echo each other, but mask deep differences in each society and in the dynamics of each insurgency. As Iraq has descended into civil war, Afghanistan’s center has held. The government remains weak, but power holders and the public show no appetite for a return to internecine fighting. The insurgency remains solvent because of safe havens across the border in Pakistan, but has been unable to expand upon its toehold in Afghanistan or offer a compelling alternative to the status quo. MORE

Fighting hunger in Afghanistan

Rick Corsino, Country Director of the World Food Programme in Afghanistan, argues today in the National Post that citizens and the media tend to overlook humanitarian work in Afghanistan.  "Most journalists," he notes "are more interested in going on 'embeds' with military forces than hanging out with -- superficially at least -- the less fascinating humanitarians. If journalists were to embed with the World Food Programme in Afghanistan, they would find another, less dramatic Afghan war -- the war on hunger -- and the large and innovative international effort that is fighting it."

Afghanistan Watch is guilty of this "security bias," as are the various media outlets. I know we'd like to feature more stories and analysis on humanitarian and development work, but it tends to be harder to learn of new developments in these fields. If you see some good pieces, or have ideas for what you'd like to see, please send them along...

Fighting Afghanistan's other war  by Rick Corsino: I was recently in Kandahar City, where the news bulletins will tell you the heart of the Afghan insurgency lies. Certainly, security is a major issue, but I was most struck by the literacy projects I visited, where I spent time with some of the poorest women in Afghanistan -- and that means the poorest in the world. MORE

Musharraf says he'll step down this month

Hot off the wires...of course, we'll believe it when we see it. Note his indication that emergency rule will continue through January elections.

Pakistan leader to quit army this month By ZARAR KHAN, Associated Press Writer, 12 minutes ago: RAWALPINDI, Pakistan - President Gen. Pervez Musharraf said Wednesday he expects to step down as army chief by the end of November and begin a new presidential term as a civilian, warning that Pakistan risked chaos if he gave into opposition demands to resign.

In an interview with The Associated Press, he accused former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, currently under house arrest, of fueling political turmoil and rejected Western pressure to quickly lift emergency rule, which he indicated was likely to continue through the January elections.

"All those who are blunt enough to tell me to my face what the reality is, all of them think, yes, it will lead the country to chaos if I do not handle the political environment now with me remaining as the president," he said at his army office.

The U.S.-backed general had originally planned to quit as chief of the powerful army by Thursday, when his presidential mandate and the term of the current parliament expire, but he said he was forced to delay the restoration of civilian rule until a court ruling on his recent re-election.

He said the exact timing would depend on the Supreme Court — which he purged of independent-minded judges when he suspended the constitution on Nov. 3 — but expected it to happen within this month. MORE

Pickering, Hills and Abramowitz on Pakistan

Three of America's most respected former diplomats weigh in on Pakistan today in the Washington Post. They argue the Pentagon must step up, and leverage aid to secure elections under a neutral caretaker government. Also pose an interesting analogy to the Philippines...

The Answer in Pakistan by Thomas R. Pickering, Carla Hills and Morton Abramowitz, Nov 13: Every day that Gen. Pervez Musharraf refuses to reverse his imposition of martial law and restore Pakistan's constitution brings another round of disturbing reports...The Bush administration's aims of securing support for the "war on terror" and stability for a nuclear power will continue to be right, but as a nation of 160 million people rapidly frays under repression, it will only become more obvious that military dictatorship is not the answer.

This realization is already settling in. Many in the Bush administration and Congress have been sending clear messages of disapproval to Musharraf. The Pentagon, however, has been more ambiguous, and it is unclear whether military aid will continue as if nothing happened on Nov. 3. The United States must go beyond verbal condemnations and show with actions that it believes Musharraf is on the wrong track. If there is a recent analogy to what is happening in Pakistan, it is the Philippines of Ferdinand Marcos in late 1985 (though the stakes are much higher today)....MORE

Quoteboard

“There is a question why the provincial officials were not with their parliamentarian guests. And it is a question why there was shooting after the explosion.”

- Burhanuddin Rabbani,  leader of the United National Front.

“This time there should be consequences. We should stop delivery of any further F-16s to Pakistan and cut off all other U.S. assistance until the state of emergency is lifted.”

- Gary L. Ackerman (D-NY), member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

“It is dangerous to stand up to a military dictatorship, but more dangerous not to.”

- Benazir Bhutto, former Pakistan Prime Minister

“This is going to be a very short-lived emergency,”

- Tariq Azim Khan, Pakistani deputy information minister

Death toll up to 68, two arrested in attack

Sixty eight civilians have been buried, a hundred more are wounded, and countless questions remain. The provincial police chief Gen. Abdul Rahman Sayed Khail said two suspects had been arrested; these men apparently ordered women to leave the area shortly before the blast.

Alix Kroeger of the BBC gives voice to what many of us are wondering…

Another puzzling aspect of the Baghlan bombing is the sheer number of people killed, making it the deadliest such attack in Afghanistan's history. Put bluntly, most suicide bombings here kill only the bombers themselves.

There are still some people who believe, partly because of the devastating death toll, that it was not a suicide bomb at all. Forensic investigators are now at work in Baghlan, but it will be some time before their findings are released.

I have no special knowledge here, but count me among the skeptics. Have you ever seen this level of carnage from a single suicide bomber? Virtually all of the massive attacks in Iraq have been from vehicle bombs or pre-positioned explosives. That's not to say that the bombing was not from the Taliban, but there are some key details missing. MORE

Update: Congress and Pakistan

CQ has an update to its story yesterday, with statements from Leahy, Kerry, and Biden (and a non-statement by Lantos...)

Chorus of Calls to Halt Aid to Pakistan Getting Louder on Capitol Hill By Colby Itkowitz, CQ Staff Calls on Capitol Hill to cut aid to Pakistan grew Wednesday, as the Bush administration defended its policy of maintaining close ties with President Pervez Musharraf despite his declaration of emergency rule. ...President Bush, personally weighing in on the Pakistan crisis for the first time since Musharraf declared emergency rule Nov. 3, telephoned the Pakistani leader Wednesday for what Bush called a “frank discussion.” “And my message was that we believe strongly in elections and that you ought to have elections soon, and you need to take off your uniform,” Bush said.

Murmurs in Congress on cutting aid to Pakistan

The administration this year requested $800m in aid to Pakistan. Pres. Musharraf has since announced emergency rule, postponed elections, and cracked down on protesters -- but there have been no ultimatums from the administration and no sign that funds will be cut.

In testimony to the House Foreign Affairs Committee this afternoon, Deputy Secretary of State John D. Negroponte argued that aid should stay, arguing that Pakistan"cutting these programs would send a negative signal to the people of Pakistan"

Some in Congress see things differently -- which is why Senator Biden (chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee) received a call on Tuesday. It was Musharraf on the line, urging him not to cut off the aid. Biden has said that  Pakistan"I told President Musharraf how critical it is for relations between our two countries that elections go forward as planned in January...That he follow through on his commitment to take off his uniform and that he restore the rule of law to Pakistan." MORE

Times review of Opium Season

The New York Times today ran a review by William Grimes of Joel Hafvenstein's Opium Season: A Year on the Afghan Frontier. Hafvenstein, currently evaluating alternative livelihood programs in Badakhshan, has had an unparalleled view of US counternarcotics efforts in Afghanistan and has contributed many insightful comments to Afghanistan Watch.

The review is quite favorable, and closes with one of my favorite quotes from the book: “We had come to Helmand thinking of opium as the local currency, and had tried to replace it with cash. But security was the real currency of Afghanistan. The traumatized population of Helmand would trade anything for it, follow anyone who could offer it.” If only international policymakers had understood this sooner.

Hafvenstein's book is a must read for anyone who wants to understand why international efforts to curb the spread of poppies have failed -- and what the implications are for the future.

Massive terror attack in Baghlan strikes parliamentarians

Today Baghlan -- a northern city that had been relatively peaceful -- suffered one of the worst suicide attacks in Afghanistan's history. The attack targeted a delegation of 18 lawmakers visiting from Kabul, killing at least two dozen and injured many more. Casualty estimates vary, and could be much, much higher (The AP reported 64 dead, Afghan TV 100...)

The bomb struck as the visiting delegates from the lower house were entering a sugar factory to celebrate its re-opening (Baghlan is the country's top producer of sugar beets).

The Taliban immediately issued a denial, but such denials have proved fallacious in the past. Hekmatyar's men are active in Baghlan.

The attack killed five parliamentarians, including Sayed Mustafa Kazemi, a former minister of commerce who was recently a leader and spokesmen for the National Front opposition group.

Afghan National Television reported that several other members of Parliament were killed: 

• Abdul Mateen, a former communist engineer from the southern province of Helmand;
• Qudrutallah Zaki from the northern province of Takhar;
• Said Rahman Hehmat from Kunar Province in the east;
• Muhammed Arif Zarif from Kabul.

In addition, dozens of civilians, including elders and children, were among the dead and injured.

None of the news reports I've seen describe the attack itself. It seems unlikely a single bomber on foot could have wreaked such carnage. Was it a vehicle bomb? Were the bombs planted in advance? 

Photo: Sayed Mustafa Kazemi in a 2002 meeting with American Ambassador Robert Finn.

Updates on fighting in Kandahar and Farah

Coalition forces continue to fight on two fronts this week against Taliban offensives in both Arghandab (Kandahar Province) and Gulistan (Farah Province).

Kandahar:  The Taliban have been driven from Arghandab for now, with the loss of fifty men (“They have received heavy casualties, faced humiliation, and they are gone,” assured Assadullah Khalid, governor of Kandahar Province.)

But will they be gone for long? The big question mark is the longer term implications of the loss of Mullah Naqib, the  Alokozai leader who died of a heart attack two weeks ago. Abdul Rahim Jan, a tribal elder from Panjwai, was quoted by the Globe and Mail saying “Mullah Naqib protected Kandahar...This is a big loss. It’s like a thousand people died.” In the same story, Sarah Chayes noted that “Arghandab was the finger in the dike. Now you have a wall of water bearing down on the city.”

Chayes argues, in a comment on Registan.net, that Mullah Naqib was "the recognized and universally respected 'elder' of one of the most important tribes in the Afghan south. His moral authority was accorded him by his tribesmen, based on his human and leadership qualities." She notes that "Over the next few weeks, Mullah Naqib’s tribe will put forth a new leader, and he is someone whom, along with government officials, it would make sense for international officials to have contact with, since he will be the democratically selected representative of a large and crucial segment of the population of this region." It is a promising sign that the local population rejected the Taliban when they sought to move into the power vacuum.

Farah: The other front making news this week is in westerly Farah province, where a Taliban force (estimated by one official at 700 men) raided a police outpost and held some terrain. Fighting has gone on for five days now.

In Farah, skirmishes have been commonplace since February between rebels and the British troops. The province is arid and sparsely populated with marginal strategic value outside of its proximity to Iran.  Are the recent attacks receiving attention because of their significance or their timing? In any case, the local authorities featured in this Reuters story were alarmed by the scale of Taliban attacks, and have called for coalition airstrikes.

"Gulistan district is still controlled by the Taliban," Ikramuddin Yawar, the police chief for western Afghanistan, told Reuters. "We want assistance from NATO to support us from the air."...in the west, the chief of a district near Gulistan and Bakwa warned his area would also fall to the rebels unless foreign air power was brought into play