Bhutto assassination reverberates across Afghanistan

The assassination of Benazir Bhutto last week continues to ring across Afghanistan, as American officials worry that it heralds the rise of a more virulent extremism against the Pakistani government that could undermine the Afghan mission. It could also damage the burgeoning strategic relationship between the two neighbors, and hurt efforts to fight cross-border terrorism.

US and Pakistani officials say that the mastermind was Baitullah Mehsud, leader of a coalition of Taliban-affiliated groups that united for the first time last month to step up their attacks on the Pakistani army and NATO forces in Afghanistan. The Tehrik Taliban-i-Pakistan was reportedly formed after a Dec. 14 meeting among 40 Taliban leaders in Waziristan. The leaders came from areas including the semi-autonomous tribal regions, known as the Federally Administered Tribal Area, and other areas of the North-west Frontier Province including Swat, Bannu and Dera Ismail Khan.

While the Bhutto assassination might have been a spectacular inaugural mission to publicize this coalition, it also bodes ill for recent U.S. military claims that Afghan border attacks have dropped 40 percent.

Jan. 7 Update: The Council on Foreign Relations has this excellent roundup of analyses on how Bhutto's death could affect Afghanistan's stability and chances of success.

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