Elections in Afghanistan could be problematic

As talk swirls over whether Zalmay Khalilzad will run for Afghan president and Karzai attempts to project his authority to prepare for what could be a possible re-election bid, a U.S. Army report finds cause for worry about national elections in Afghanistan. Michael J. Metrinko, of the Army’s Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute, looks at problems with future Afghan elections in the face of deteriorating security.

He explores the political evolution of the war-ravaged country from the cautious 2002 emergency Loya Jirga publicized by word of mouth, to the robust 2005 parliamentary elections, a much more sophisticated and modern process.

The timely distribution and collection of election materials and ballots in all 34 provinces eventually required 18 cargo planes, 9 helicopters, 1200 cargo truck deliveries, 1,247 donkeys, 306 horses and even 26 camels. All in all, it was a massive and very successful logistics, public education and political effort.

But since then, security conditions have plummeted and “the political euphoria of the immediate post-Taliban era has evaporated, with problematic consequences for future elections and presidential and parliamentary hopefuls.” The next presidential election is due next year and a parliamentary one in 2010.

It is already obvious that there will be some provinces, especially in the south, where elections might not be possible due to safety concerns for election workers and voters. Election logistics and campaigning would be seriously hurt by the increased insurgent focus on government officials, police and military. Metrinko also predicts a political tug-of-war between neighboring Pakistan and Iran as they both try to keep Afghanistan within its sphere of influence.

Afghanistan is an extremely fragile democracy at best, and this report only highlights the extent to which the basis of its democracy is in danger.