February 07, 2008

Eradicating opium through development

More disconcerting news coming out of an international Afghanistan donors conference in Tokyo this week. The UN Office on Drugs and Crime issued its annual winter survey of poppy planting patterns and predicted a poppy harvest close to last year’s record.

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January 30, 2008

Afghanistan could fail as a state

A new independent study by retired Marine Corps Gen. James Jones and former U.N. Ambassador Thomas Pickering has a dire warning for Afghanistan, according to The Associated Press which obtained an advance copy.

Study: Afghanistan could fail as a state, Anne Flaherty (The Associated Press), 29 January 2008. Afghanistan risks sliding into a failed state and becoming the "forgotten war" because of deteriorating international support and a growing violent insurgency, according to an independent study.
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"Afghanistan stands at a crossroads," concludes the study, an advance copy of which was obtained by The Associated Press. "The progress achieved after six years of international engagement is under serious threat from resurgent violence, weakening international resolve, mounting regional challenges and a growing lack of confidence on the part of the Afghan people about the future direction of their country."

A major issue has been trying to win the war with "too few military forces and insufficient economic aid," the study adds.

Among the group's nearly three dozen recommendations: increase NATO force levels and military equipment sent to Afghanistan, decouple U.S. management of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, establish a special envoy to coordinate all U.S. policy on Afghanistan, and champion a unified strategy among partner nations to stabilize the country in five years.

You can read the study here.

Also read the Atlantic Council report released the same day, Saving Afghanistan: An Appeal and Plan for Urgent Action. It states bluntly that "NATO is not winning in Afghanistan" and urges quick changes in course, including a coherent security and reconstruction assessment, appointment of a UN high commissioner, and the creation of a comprehensive regional strategy including all neighboring actors like Pakistan and Iran.

A third interesting report comes from Oxfam which recommends changing the "centralized, top-heavy and insufficient" aid-distribution process to a more indigenous approach that emphasizes "more even distribution of aid, greater alignment with national and local priorities and increased use of Afghan resources" and focuses more on rural development and agricultural aid.

December 04, 2007

Quoteboard

"I'm not in the business of turning down jobs I haven't been offered."
  - Paddy Ashdown

"I can put a guy out on a ridge with an AK-47 and have him take a couple of shots. The Americans will shoot back with their big guns and disrupt the whole valley...Being an insurgent would be so easy."
  - Sgt. Jacob Stockdill

"All you have to do is not screw up, and, even if you do, you just blame it on the Americans."
  - Capt. Chris Rowe
MORE

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November 19, 2007

Quoteboard

"If you're coming as our friends, don't. If you're coming as our enemies, we will fight you."
     - Zmarai, Arghandab district police chief, in response to Taliban threats.
MORE...

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October 24, 2007

Exports up 13 percent in first two quarters

Every year, Afghanistan imports about $5 billion dollars in goods and exports just $500 million. But this year, according to a government spokesman, exports are at least on the rise. In the first two quarters, exports have gone up 12% and 13% respectively when compared with last year.

Afghan exports include handcrafts, fresh and dry fruit, minerals, leather products, cotton and precious stones and have gone to  India, China, Pakistan, UAE, Europe and the US. The rise in exports is attributable, to some extent, on the removal of customs, barriers, and other red tape. A good trend, but obviously still a long way to go.

Afghanistan's exports up by 13pc in 2nd quarter. (Pajhwok Afghan News) by Zainab Muhammadi, KABUL, Oct 21: Afghanistan's exports had registered 13 percent increase during the second quarter of the current Afghan year as compared to the same period during last year, officials said on Sunday.

October 23, 2007

A look inside the Asia Foundation survey

The Asia Foundation released it's third survey of the Afghan people today. Polling in Afghanistan should by no means be seen as dispositive, but this data can provide insights unavailable elsewhere (especially compared with prior baseline surveys by the Asia Foundation in 2004 and 2006). Here's a look inside...

Afsurveycover_2Predictably, media reports framed the poll as a referendum on security (see AFP: “Security fears up sharply among Afghans: survey”) It’s true that pessimism about security rose among Afghans--with 32 percent citing security as their top concern (up from 22 percent last year.)

But the picture is more complicated, since security concerns vary significantly by region and two thirds of Afghans felt that security in their area was good. Moreover, among those who believe the country is headed in the right direction, good security is cited as the second most important reason (34%) after development.

So the Survey paints a nuanced picture and provides some fascinating data on everything from support for traditional institutions (such as Shuras and Jirga) to democracy and women’s rights. A few trends worth noting:

Right Direction / Wrong Direction:

  • Rightdirwrongdir_2 People are still optimistic, even if there was a slight decline in those who said the country was headed in the right direction (from 44 percent to 42 percent).
  • Three-quarters of Afghans continue to assess government performance positively (i.e. either strongly (25%) or somewhat strongly (55%).)
  • Govgoodjob_2 Afghans continue to espouse confidence in national security forces (both army and police) as well as in traditional institutions such as Shuras and Jirgas. However, “less than half of the respondents had confidence in the government's justice system, political parties and local militias.”
  •  Corruption is an issue for many Afghans, but it is not clear that it has grown more acute. Some poll questions suggest an increase in perceptions of corruption while others suggest a decrease.

Security:

  • Biggestprobafgasawhole Among people who felt the country was going in the wrong direction, security was cited as the top reason. This may seem unsurprising, until you realize that even in last year’s survey security was only rarely mentioned as a reason for a “wrong direction” response.
  • On the other hand, among those who said the country was going in the right direction, good security was cited as the second biggest reason (34%).
  • Biggestprobllocalarea_2 Perceptions of security varied greatly by region. Nationwide, “sixty-six percent of the respondents felt that security in their area was good or quite good, and 50 percent said they rarely or never feared for their own or their family's safety. Eighty-two percent said no one in their family had been a victim of any crime or violence during the last one year.” 

Reconstruction:

  • Last year, respondents cited “rebuilding of the country” as only the fourth most important reason why the country was headed in the right direction; this year it became the most important reason for believing so (39%). It’s not clear whether people feel reconstruction is going better, or that the other trends they cited as reasons for optimism last year (security, peace, disarmament) are simply going worse. MORE

Continue reading "A look inside the Asia Foundation survey" »

October 12, 2007

Draft GoA rules for private security contractors

Unitedpmc_2The Associated Press obtained a draft of the policy being discussed by the Government of Afghanistan on security contractors. The document must receive approval from the Cabinet before entering into effect. It notes that "the GOA (government of Afghanistan) has allowed for limited PSC operations and activities. However, increasingly, the absence of targeted regulation ... in parallel with unstable security environment has generated an unfortunate and nearly anarchical PSC market with a long series of security problems and criminal activities." Here are the highlights:

Extensive reliance of PSCs (private security companies), risks deepening the current state of instability in at least 4 ways: MORE

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September 27, 2007

Latest Kajaki Dam cost estimates

The latest USAID estimate for the Kajaki Dam appears in today's International Water Power: $150m for the first year, and up to $500m total. Actual cost will probably be much higher -- and still worth every penny.

Progress on the dam is the bellwether of efforts in Helmand: restoring hydroelectric power would have massive symbolic and pragmatic consequences (not to mention create 4,000 jobs...) So it's a huge reconstruction priority--but one which requires sustained security to implement...

Continue reading "Latest Kajaki Dam cost estimates" »

By the Numbers

Some interesting (and encouraging) figures from Ann Marlowe's Wall Street Journal commentary last month:

  • Afghan mobile phone subscribers, September 2006:    2 million
  • Current subscribers:                                                 3 million
  • Approximate percent of Afghans this comprises:       10%
  • Percent of Nangarhar residents with a mobile phone: 31%
  • Percent of Laghman residents with a mobile phone:    77%
  • Approximate population of Khost province:            1,000,000
  • Estimated people from Khost living overseas:           200,000
  • Annual remittances sent back to Khost :                   $6-12 million
  • USAID spending in Khost, 2002-2006:                        $10 million

Source: Ann Marlowe, On the Road to Jalalabad

September 11, 2007

Don Rumsfeld, microlender to Afghanistan?

Rumsfeld_karzaiDonald Rumsfeld's first major interview since leaving office, on the newsstands in GQ next month, dubs Afghanistan "a big success" and announces, among other things, that he's starting a foundation that will focus on post-graduate fellowships, a lecture series, post-Soviet reform, and -- you guessed it -- microlending in Afghanistan.

"The third thing is, we're interested in microenterprise. Most of the poor countries of the world—I shouldn't say most—a number of the poorer countries of the world have corrupt governments, and so when nations help nations, a lot of that money doesn't end up going to the people; it gets stuck in graft and corruption." He explains that before he came back to government, he worked on microloans with some outfit doing work in India and was impressed by it. He wants to do it in Afghanistan.

Interesting: Rumsfeld has discovered that graft and corruption are an impediment to Afghanistan's future. Has it crossed his mind, even fleetingly, that the policies he pushed so hard for -- a light engagement, the empowerment of warlords, an allergy to statebuilding and rule of law programs -- permitted the culture of impunity that allows Afghanistan's kleptocrats to flourish?  Am I being too harsh here?

Below is another excerpt from the interview (about the Pentagon and its limitations...) MORE

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September 06, 2007

Afghanistan's "land mafia"

MrpashtunA 200 word piece today by the BBC highlights an important trend and leaves us wanting more details. The emergence of the so-called "land mafia" (a term that probably makes it sound more centrally organized than it us...) has broad repercussions, especially since Afghanistan lacks enforceable, consistent land rights. Multiple land registries allow well-connected strongmen to stake claims with impunity, and the lack of a functioning legal system leaves victims with no recourse.

The lack of security vis a vis land and property rights remains one of the major impediments to investment in Afghanistan. This briefly received some attention in 2003 when refugees streamed home -- only to find someone else there. It's still a big issue today, but the last serious work I've seen on this is the AREU's 2003 report ( Land Rights in Crisis). Sounds to me like a prize-winning expose just waiting for the right journalist...

Powerful 'grab Afghanistan land' By Stephanie Irvine (BBC)  Sept 6: The Afghan urban development minister says land is being appropriated illegally by powerful individuals at a rate of two sq km (0.8 sq miles) a day. Former military commanders, members of parliament and senior officials are seizing land and then selling it on illegally, says Yousaf Pashthun.

Image: Urban Development Minister Mohammad Yousaf Pashthun. BBC.

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August 27, 2007

"Bridge of friendship" opens

Tajafgbridge On Sunday the widest connection between Tajikistan and Afghanistan opened. The bridge, under construction since 2005, is 700 meters long and can handle a capacity of up to 1,000 vehicles a day (formerly, crossings required a barge that could only transport 60 cars per day and was unusable for part of the year). Construction was managed by the US Army Corps of Engineers and the total cost of $37 million was mostly financed by the US. The customs post is scheduled to open later this year.

Road Bridge Opens: IZHNY PYANJ, Tajikistan; Aug 26 (RFE/RL) -- The presidents of Afghanistan and Tajikistan inaugurated today a new bridge linking the two countries. Tajikistan's Emomali Rahmon and Afghanistan's Hamid Karzai said the new structure over the Pyanj River, which was financed by the United States, will strengthen trade in the region. The 700-meter structure straddles the Pyanj River between the ports of Nizhny Pyanj on the Tajik side and Shir Khan Bandar in Afghanistan.

The Tajik head of state, Emomali Rahmon, told those gathered for the ceremony in Nizhny Pyanj that the "bridge of friendship" will first of all "strengthen the old and vital relations of two countries and two peoples." But he also expressed concern that Tajik and Afghan authorities need to prevent the bridge from facilitating "all kinds of inadmissible activities, such as human, drug, and weapons trafficking." MORE

Image: The new bridge connecting Tajikistan and Afghanistan(RFE/RL)

 

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August 06, 2007

Bridging the expectations gap

In an op-ed this week, George Davendorf and Brian Grzelkowski -- part of a recent Mercy Corps delegation to Afghanistan -- argue that "the most serious threat to the fledgling Afghan state may be lurking in an unexpected place; not in the strife-ridden streets of Kandahar or the flourishing poppy fields of the countryside, but in the unfulfilled aspirations of average Afghan citizens."

To the Afghan government and donors, Davendorf and Grzelkowski make two specific recommendations that would make a big difference:

  1. "Expedite the provision of reconstruction and development assistance at the local level by adopting both a top-down and bottom-up approach...(and) finding ways to inject additional resources at the provincial and district levels where they can quickly benefit average Afghans."
  2. "Develop a credible, effective communications strategy to better guide and manage public expectations...to rebuild public confidence in the nation-building effort now underway."

Read the full op-ed below...

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August 01, 2007

Triumph of the Tube...

Boots_on_tv"With democracy comes television. It's hard for some people to get used to."  - Saad Mohseni, founder of Tolo TV

Indeed, one study shows that two-thirds of Afghans living in the five most urban provinces watch TV every day or almost every day. The NY Times today shines the spotlight on what is, for most Afghans, as big a cultural change as any... 

A massive phenomenon in Afghanistan: Television. By Barry Bearak (IHT/NYT July 31):...Since the fall of the Taliban in late 2001, Afghanistan has been developing in fits and starts. Among the unchanging circumstances that still give people fits: continuing war, inept leaders, corrupt police and woeful living conditions...But television is off to a phenomenal start, with Afghans now engrossed -- for better or worse --  in much of the same escapist fare that seduces the rest of the world: soap operas that pit the unbearably conniving against the implausibly virtuous; chefs preparing meals that most people would never eat in kitchens they could never afford; talk show hosts wheedling secrets from those too shameless to keep their troubles to themselves. MORE

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July 11, 2007

Afghanistan qualifies for debt relief under HIPCI

The World Bank and IMF have announced that Afghanistan has made sufficient reforms to now qualify for debt relief under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative. The country will now have its public and private debt payments (on $12b in total debt) cut in half.

To qualify, Afghanistan had to meet several criteria: "face an unsustainable debt burden, beyond traditionally available debt-relief mechanisms"; "establish a track record of reform and sound policies through IMF- and IDA-supported programs"; and "have developed a Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) through a broad-based participatory process." MORE DETAILS ON HIPCI

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May 23, 2007

Lifestyles of the Rich and Infamous

Heratmansion3 Check out “Narcotecture in Herat,” Monocle’s excellent narrated slideshow of the gaudy mansions blooming in Herat. Journalist Rachel Morarjee (better known for her work at the Financial Times) accompanies photographer Ash Sweeting inside some of these lavish shrines built on opium. It’s not pretty...

A premise of the piece is that “Herat’s past glories are slowly being erased by new fortunes,” and they speak with groups like Agha Khan who are “waging aHeratpanorama losing battle to prevent the city’s heritage being bulldozed to make way for acres of glass and candy colored mansions.” Unfortunately, the piece doesn’t offer many details about what specifically is being destroyed, and my sense was that these mansions--objectionable as they might be--don’t necessarily threaten Herat’s cultural heritage.

The conclusions asks “whether the rest of the city’s heritage survives the outbreak of peace and prosperity the way that it outlasted three decades of war remains to be seen”…clever, but more than a bit cynical. Whatever aesthetic or moral objections it might provoke, theHeratmansioninterior construction boom comprises roughly half of Afghanistan’s economic growth and has a multiplier effect which helps a lot of ordinary Afghans. Even with many of the funds are leaving the country, as Sweeting keenly observes with a shot of a “Made in China” tag on a bouquet of plastic flowers, and even with impunity and growing inequity, I imagine few Heratis would wish to end their recent peace and prosperity.

Nevertheless, these words and images are striking, and give us a glimpse at an under told story of the new Afghanistan.

Photos: Ash Sweeting, Monocle (c).

April 24, 2007

Kabul hosts first agricultural fair

WheatFor the first time since 2001 Afghanistan is hosting an agricultural fair. The goal is to improve agricultural performance and draw investors. Over 86 companies are in attendance and -- encouragingly -- most  of them are local.

Bolstering Afghanistan's agricultural performance would have a huge impact on lives -- most of the country remains rural and dependent upon subsistence agriculture. Moreover, for a poor country, Afghanistan imports an astonishing amount of its food; something as simple as creating a domestic industry for poultry (most of which is currently imported from China) would go a long way to creating jobs and lowering prices for consumers.

March 27, 2007

All the news that fits: 3 opeds from the NY Times

Three excellent op-eds in the Times today on Afghanistan and the region:

  • Times227_2Pakistani novelist Mohsin Hamid writes about his frustration as a liberal who supported Musharraf five years ago. "An exaggerated fear of Pakistan's people," he writes, must not prevent Americans from acknowledging that Musharraf is losing support: "Pakistan has grown increasingly divided between the relatively urban and prosperous regions that border India and the relatively rural, conservative and violent regions that border Afghanistan. The two mainstream political parties have historically bridged that divide and vastly outperformed religious extremists in free elections, but under General Musharraf they have been marginalized..." Musharraf has done some good, he says, but his time has come...
  • Nicholas Kristof writes about Kiva, a site that allows ordinary people to make direct loans overseas. He was in Afghanistan this week checking up on his two loans (of $25 each) to a baker and a TV repairman in Kabul. Kiva loans are administered directly by local partners and with little overhead (Kristof's New York to Kabul flight represents an older model of administering aid...) Kiva is a terrific mechanism--and hopefully Kristof's article will bring them some attention from the mainstream.
    • For more details, see www.Kiva.org.
  • Rory Stewart stays on message: humility, humility, humility.  Actions justified on moral grounds is nonsensical if they cannot be acheived; "we have no moral obligation to do what we cannot do." Stewart does no service by conflating US policies in Iraq and Afghanistan for rhetorical reasons, but he has some sober and sage advice:

"We will have to focus on projects that Iraqis and Afghans demand; prioritize and set aside moral perfectionism; work with people of whom we don’t approve; and choose among lesser evils. We will have to be patient. We should aim to stop illegal opium growth and change the way that Iraqis or Afghans treat their women. But we will not achieve this in the next three years. We may never be able to build a democratic state in Iraq or southern Afghanistan. Trying to do so through a presence based on foreign troops creates insurgency and resentment and can only end in failure."

March 26, 2007

Update: the battle for Kajaki dam

82nd_airborneoperation_achillesHow is Operation Achilles going? Joe Friesen answers one facet of that question by looking at one of the operation's goals: to secure Kajaki dam and create a "safe zone" that would permit repair.

The dam currently supplies 380,000 people with sporadic power; if refurbished it could provide 2,000,000 with steady power, not to mention irrigation and employment. It would serve as a symbol of what the government can deliver that the Taliban cannot.

Friesen reports, however, that despite military progress by NATO forces "
the Sangin valley south of the dam remains a hotbed of Taliban activity. Until it is secured, construction on a road leading from the highway to the dam cannot begin." Things will take a while to sort themselves out.

Of course, even if Kajaki dam is secured, the region will not be home free. Transmission lines will need to be upgraded as well, and insurgents could still blow up power lines and transformers to turn out the lights. Friesan notes this would risk alienating the population, but this hasn't stopped similar tactics in Iraq.

The fight to win Kajaki dam KANDAHAR, March 24, by Joe Friesen:...  The alliance says British forces have won the high ground in the area, giving them a significant strategic advantage. They have been clearing Taliban positions, blowing up arms caches and slowly gaining ground. Coalition forces have also encircled most of northern Helmand, with Canadians from the Royal Canadian Regiment on the eastern edge of that movement. But the Sangin valley south of the dam remains a hotbed of Taliban activity. Until it is secured, construction on a road leading from the highway to the dam cannot begin, and without a safe road it's impossible to supply the operation. MORE

Photo: DOD: Paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division patrol the Ghorak Valley of Helmand Province in southern Afghanistan during Operation Achilles, March 6.

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March 21, 2007

Should we end the counterinsurgency and refocus?

Stewartrorypicture Getting a lot of buzz is Rory Stewart's guest column in the NY Times, in which he concludes that the West has bit off more than it can chew and that "the original strategy of limiting our role was correct."

It's a thoughtful piece, and Stewart writes well; however, his own policy prescriptions are no more coherent than the muddled thinking he dissects. MORE

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March 13, 2007

Growth in legal economy outpaces growth of opium

Imf_logo_1 The IMF has estimated that agricultural gains will allow the Afghan economy to grow by a robust 16%  this year. That's well above the previously estimated 12% growth, and even higher than last year's 14% growth.

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher told Congress yesterday that "What we've seen in Afghanistan is the regular economy has been growing a lot faster than the economy of opium production." Some of the figures cited in the Bloomberg story (e.g. that "now accounts for about a third of the economy, compared with more than 60 percent five years ago") are suspect; it's easy to get these figures wrong because people often cite the opium trade as a percentage of different things (for example total economic activity vs. legal GDP.) I plan to dig into these numbers more the coming days, but even if the trend is exaggerated it would be an encouraging development (even amidst the latest data that the opium economy continues to expand). As Boucher qualified, narcotics is still the biggest business in town, and it will be a challenge "to get Afghanistan to the point where it can develop an economy, it can develop a country without the corrosive and corrupting influence of the drug trade."

Afghan Economy to Quicken, IMF Says, Reducing Opium Dependence
By Michael Dwyer, March 9 (Bloomberg) -- Afghanistan's economic growth will accelerate over the next two years, according to the International Monetary Fund, with increased production of wheat and fruit helping reduce the economy's opium dependence.

"Growth is expected to accelerate in 2006-07, with even stronger growth likely in 2007-08 owing to a rebound in the agricultural sector,'' Murilo Portugal, IMF deputy managing director, said in a statement on the Washington-based lender's Web site. The pace of expansion had previously been expected to slow to 12 percent this fiscal year from 14 percent in 2005-06.

Continue reading "Growth in legal economy outpaces growth of opium" »

February 20, 2007

New AfghanMark label certifies fair conditions

Halimakazem_1

“This is a major humanitarian, educational and business development breakthrough by Afghan women for Afghan women in the post-Taliban era of our country’s history.”

  - Ms. Halima Kazem of The Afghan Women’s Business Federation, speaking on the inauguration of the AfghanMarkSM label, which certifies “fair trade” carpets.

Afghanmarklabel_1 For more details on the AfghanMark label, check out this news article, this website, and this press release.

Afghancarpet Women_carpet_makers_afghanistan_1 Women_carpet_makers_afghanistan3 Women_carpet_makers_afghanistan2_1 Afghan_businesswoman_with_carpetsLeft: Afghan weavers at a certified studio. Below: An Afghan business woman with her child in a retail carpet market, Kabul.

February 13, 2007

Doing Business in Afghanistan: the latest World Bank report

 Doing_business_country_profile

Today the World Bank released its annual "Doing Business" report, which compares the world's countries on a variety of variables related to the ease of operating a business.  You can download the complete report here or the portion on Afghanistan here.

To summarize the findings:

  • Doing_business_rankings_of_countries_2 Afghanistan is among the easiest places to open a business and has favorable tax conditions, but is otherwise mired in difficulties related to registering property, getting credit, protecting investors, enforcing contracts and import/export.
  • While it is easy to register a business, start up costs (75% of income per capita) can be significantly lowered and many industry-specific barriers should be dispensed with.
  • Registering property is a major problem, requiring an average of 252 days and 10% of the property value. The complexity of the process discourages formal registration. Moreover, because of 25 years of chaos, most land has no clear title. The result is that businesses can get less credit and are wary of investing. Reforming this system is possible, as Thailand has proven, and must be a priority for Afghanistan and the donor community.
  • Long_delays_for_importing_afghanistan There are no credit registries to provide lenders with information on borrowers, and no working land registry to allow land as collateral. As a result, the formal lending system is hamstrung. A simple credit registry could be established for under $2 million. The government could also pass a collateral law for movable property, which makes up 70% of most small business assets. These steps would go a long way.
  • Cross-border trade is costly and excruciatingly slow. Legally importing a container requires 88 days,  11 documents, and $2,100--the highest fees in the region. Cutting this red tape would discourage smuggling, reduce corruption, and raise revenues.

For more on this, read the complete report...

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January 12, 2007

More aid for Afghanistan--or just better aid?

How can we improve the quality of aid delivery in Afghanistan? Many people would point to specific concerns vis a vis Afghanistan's economy, security situation, etc, but it's also worth taking a step back and asking: What are the criteria for successful aid in any country?

There are nearly as many theories on this as there are development economists. But one of the best concise summaries can be found in an important article in Foreign Affairs by Nancy Birdsall, Dani Rodrik, and Arvind Subramanian.

In it Birdsall, Rodrik and Subramian, three top scholars on the impact of foreign assistance, highlight areas in which aid has been successful: eradicating smallpox, lowering infant mortality, increasing school enrollment, etc. Then comes the rub: in each case, they note that “What these successes share is that they were narrowly targeted at specific objectives. Assistance does work well, but only when the recipient countries do the right things to help themselves and have the capacity and the leadership to spend the money wisely.”:

But aid has not been associated with the sustained increases in productivity and wages that ultimately matter. . .There are many reasons for the mixed performance of foreign assistance. Donors themselves cause many of the problems. Recipient countries can be overwhelmed by the multiplicity of donors pursuing many, even inconsistent, objectives, disbursing aid to innumerable projects and imposing a plethora of conditions on its use. These factors contribute to rather than offset a poor country's lack of institutional capacity. On top of that, there is the natural volatility and uncertainty of foreign aid, which make it difficult for recipient governments to plan their budgets. For more than a decade, the bureaucracies of donor states and organizations have been unable, despite good intentions and constant resolve, to change the political incentives and constraints that impede the reform of their aid-delivery apparatuses.

Probably more important, however, are institutional deficiencies on the recipients' side. Aid is only as good as the ability of a recipient's economy and government to use it prudently and productively. Thus, the fundamental dilemma: countries most in need of aid are often those least able to use it well. That sets limits on the extent to which large infusions of foreign funds can make a difference.The greatest example of the success of aid -- the Marshall Plan -- illustrates the importance of homegrown institutional competence. Because the institutions and capabilities of the United   Kingdom, France, and Germany survived the war to a large extent, even their war-ravaged economies were able to exploit fully the potential of financial assistance.

Read the complete article for more...

January 10, 2007

Linking to Tajikistan's surplus power

Nurekdam_2Not breaking news, but worth noting: the Asian Development Bank has authorized $56.5 million in loans (which will be supplemented by several other funds) to allow Afghanistan to tap into Tajikistan's surplus hydropower. According to GlobalSecurity.org, Tajikistan has the greatest hydroelectric capacity in Central Asia; in fact it has could increase its production almost twentyfold (it currently produces 16.5 billion kilowatt hours per year, but could produce 300 billion kw hours.) The project is due for completion in 2010 and should relieve some of Afghanistan's power shortages:

ADB backing energy cooperation between Afghanistan and Tajikistan KABUL: The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is backing a project to tap Tajikistan’s power surplus to meet shortfalls in neighboring Afghanistan through loans to the two countries totaling US$56.5 million. MORE

Photo: Nurek Dam, the world's tallest, sits astride the Vakhsh River in western Tajikistan.

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January 03, 2007

Paula Lerner: The Women of Kabul

BakhtnaziraThe Washington Post has completed a fantastic multimedia special on women in Kabul. The project features stunning photography by Paula Lerner, a photojournalist who visited Afghanistan three times in the past eighteen months to trace the efforts of five women entrepreneurs. The remarkable women she profiles have received assistance from the Business Council for Peace (BPEACE), a nonprofit that helps women in post-conflict countries. They used the grants and experience they gained to found a children's center, a clothing shop, a textile business, and a fitness center. Inspiring work, innovatively presented.

Photos and Audio by Paula Lerner

Womensstoriesl_1

 

December 21, 2006

Economic opportunity from under the floorboards

"People are coming who have never seen a bank before. They are pulling their money from under the
floorboards and we are putting it into circulation through loans."

                   - Hayatullah Dayani, Azizi bank's chief of business development

"It's not like investing in Austria or the United Arab Emirates where things are pretty straightforward. Given that we are only just emerging from a postconflict situation, things are very complicated. But the possibilities are endless if you are able to adapt."

                   - Mohammad Rafi Fazil, economics officer for the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in Afghanistan.

"The economy is moving forward. Afghans are hungry. We are tired of war and we want to buy. We want to build."
                  - Karim Khan, one of 60,000 Afghans in four months to open a new account at Azizi Bank

See: Capitalism Comes to Afghanistan, Time Magazine, By ARYN BAKER.

November 28, 2006

U.S.-Afghan Business Matchmaking Opportunities

Aicc_img_logo I learned today from the  Afghan-American Chamber of Commerce (AACC) that three company representatives who had planned to attend the U.S.-Afghan Business Matchmaking Conference were unable to attend because of visa issues. The AACC is helping them identify U.S. companies and organizations interested in meeting with them. If you are interested in "obtaining perspectives on developments in the Afghan economy from Afghan companies working on the ground" you can set up a meeting with these individuals by emailing mnawabi@a-acc.org or calling (202) 436-1400.  Continue reading for short company profiles and their availability...

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November 16, 2006

Nine Companies Bid for Copper Exploration Rights

Bbccopper300_1The government of Afghanistan has said that it will select a bidder within 4-5 months and that the process will be transparent. Read Afghanistan Watch's analysis of Afghanistan's copper resources here.

Afghan gov't accepts bids from 9 foreign companies to explore cooper mine
Nov 15, 2006 (Xinhua): The Afghan government has accepted bid documents from nine foreign companies to explore the Ainak deposit containing huge copper reserves, daily newspapers Outlook said on Wednesday...a total of 13 foreign companies had submitted bid documents, and the government chose nine in the first run, among which are companies from China, Russia, Canada, the United States, Australia, Kazakhstan and India.

With an estimated 12 million tones of copper, the Ainak deposit is believed as one of the biggest copper reservoirs, according to Adil. A World Bank analysis indicated the Ainak copper production could capture as much as 2 percent of the annual world market, as well as vast coal deposits and many other deposits that could spur major development.

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November 01, 2006

Neumann on Musa Qala, Karzai on Taliban talks, and US buys local water

  CSIS's PCR Project on Afghanistan is tracking these stories, among others, this week:

  • A rare rift between the U.S. and the British emerged this week as U.S. Ambassador Ronald Neumann expressed “a lot of nervousness” about the British tribal deal and subsequent withdrawal from Musa Qala, Helmand.
  • President Karzai has, for the first time, said that he is willing to talk to Taliban leader Mullah Mohammad Omar and commander Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, a major Taliban supporter. Their dissimilar responses confirm that the insurgency is not monolithic. . .
  • Beginning this week, the U.S.-led coalition of 10,000 soldiers not under NATO command will purchase its drinking water from an Afghan-based bottling plant.

Picnic site or terrorist hideout? It's BOTH!

Christina Lamb of London's Sunday Times reports from Tora Bora that efforts are underway to transform bin Laden's former redoubt into a tourist destination. Nangahar governor Gul Agha Sherzai, rarely accused of being the sharpest knife in the pantry, had this sparkling insight:

“I don’t just want one Tora Bora hotel...I want three or four. Long before anyone had heard of Osama, Tora Bora was known as a picnic spot and now it can be both.”

ShimmerAnyone remember that classic Saturday Night Live skit with Gilda Radner and Dan Akroyd?

 

October 06, 2006

Seeing past the doomsayers

Ann Marlowe, a close observer of Afghanistan since 2002 who just penned a romance about her visits ("The Book of Trouble"), argues that "if only American and other Western investors could see past the doomsayers, they too could play a part in the Afghan economic success story":

Afghanistan's Booming Economy...
By Ann Marlowe,  19 September 2006,  (The Wall Street Journal Asia): KABUL -- The recent spate of violence shouldn't be allowed to detract from the real story here: Afghanistan's booming economy. Frightened by exaggerated scare stories, American and other Western companies are missing out on lucrative investment opportunities grasped by ostensibly less sophisticated Afghan and regional players.

There's no shortage of profit to be made in an economy that grew 14% in the 12 months to March 21, and is expected to expand by a similar amount in the current financial year. In Kabul alone the number of cars and taxis has increased by one-third since last year to 400,000, up from fewer than 1,000 under the Taliban. Large sections of the city boast three- and four-storey buildings where mud brick houses stood only a few years ago, and twin 17- and 20-storey towers are currently under construction in Herat.
Telecom was one of the first big success stories. U.S. companies stood by as Afghanistan's first four mobile-phone licenses were auctioned off, starting in January 2003. The Afghan-American and regional investors who got licenses have profited as the number of private mobile-phone users rocketed from zero to 1.5 million over the last five years. Now finance and banking is taking off -- and, once again, Western companies are missing out...

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September 29, 2006

Karzai to Citgo: Don't watch CNN...

Karzai Courts Chevron, Dole

Sept. 26 (Bloomberg)    By Mark Drajem-- Afghan President Hamid Karzai, who is weathering criticism amid renewed attacks by the Taliban, sought to persuade U.S. companies such as Chevron Corp. and Dole Food Co. to invest in Afghanistan...

"The sooner you come, the better will be your reward,'' Karzai told business groups at George Washington University today. "Are security threats a factor? No. You won't even know about them until you turn on CNN.''...

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September 22, 2006

With lives threatened, livelihoods wither

Opiumseason_2 In his NYT op-ed, Joel Hafvenstein, who worked on an alternative livelihoods program in Helmand, offers a vivid account of how our counternarcotics strategy (and our development strategy in general) has collapsed in the absence of security:

Afghanistan’s Drug Habit
Sept 20 (NYT):

... By May 2005, we had paid out millions of dollars and had some 14,000 men on the payroll simultaneously. The program buoyed the provincial economy, and would have made a fine launching pad for long-term alternatives to poppy.

Security was our Achilles’ heel. There was a new American military base by the graveyard on the edge of town, but the few score Iowa National Guard members there lacked the manpower and the local knowledge to protect us. We could not afford the professional security companies in Kabul, most run by brash veterans of Western militaries. Then, just before Christmas, some of our engineers were carjacked. We resorted to the only remaining source of protection: the provincial police.

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September 13, 2006

USIP Briefing: the Afghanistan Reconstruction Group experiment

Usip_logo The current administration is a big proponent of bringing private sector experience to bear on  development projects. But does it work?

Yes and no, reports the latest brief from USIP (based on off-the-record consultations.) 

Afghanistan Reconstruction Group advisors were helpful as senior advisors to Afghan ministers--offering ideas, insights, and new strategies--but were ineffective as monitors or managers (where they found themselves stepping on toes...)  Here's the brief:

The Afghanistan Reconstruction Group: An Experiment with Future Potential
By Beth Cole DeGrasse and Christina Parajon, September 2006:

The Afghanistan Reconstruction Group (ARG) was created by the National Security Council in 2004 as a non-traditional approach to reconstruction. The ARG brought high-ranking former U.S. private-sector executives and government employees to serve in the embassy in Kabul. The intent was for the group to apply its private-sector experience and expertise in an advisory role to both the U.S. government and the Afghan government.

We have now begun to evaluate ARG successes and shortcomings as well as potential future uses of the concept. Given current U.S. advocacy of market economy, citizen self-determination, and democracy, what should be the role for public-spirited, top-level private-sector experts in U.S. government stabilization and development operations?

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September 12, 2006

"I'd like to buy the world a Coke"

Coca Cola returns to Afghanistan
BBC, Sept 11: More than a decade after the Coca Cola bottling plant in Afghanistan was ravaged by artillery fire, the company is back with a gleaming new facility in capital, Kabul. The new bottling plant in the Bagrami Industrial area of Kabul has been set up with $25m, creating jobs for 350 people on a 60,000 square metre site...The facility, which can produce 15 million, 24-bottle cases of the soft drink annually, will initially produce Coke's three most popular brands - Coca Cola, Fanta and Sprite - for the Afghan market.

Incidentally, all of Coca Cola's slogans, including "I'd like to buy the world a Coke," can be found here. It's quality reading (how about "Whenever you see an arrow, think of Coca-Cola" from 1909 or "Don't wear a tired, thirsty face" from 1933, or "The happy symbol of a friendly way of life" from 1945...)

September 06, 2006

Where did the money go?

Kabulinwinterjacket Ann Jones, author of Kabul in Winter, takes on America's "phantom aid" to Afghanistan:

How U.S. dollars disappear in Afghanistan: quickly and thoroughly
San Francisco Chronicle, Sept 3, by  Ann Jones: ... To understand the failure -- and fraud -- of reconstruction in Afghanistan, you have to take a look at the peculiar system of U.S. aid for international development. During the past five years, the
United States and many other donor nations pledged billions of dollars to Afghanistan, yet Afghans keep asking: "Where did the money go?" American taxpayers should be asking the same question...

...answers appear in a fact-packed report issued in June 2005 by Action Aid, a widely respected nongovernmental organization headquartered in Johannesburg. The report studies development aid given by all countries worldwide and says that only part of it --
maybe 40 percent -- is real. The rest is phantom aid. That is, it never shows up in recipient countries at all. 

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August 17, 2006

China to explore mining

A look at Afghanistan's Copper and Coal