Inside Karzai's Shrinking Tent
Carl Robichaud

After three weeks of vote counting and investigations into fraud, Karzai's victory is official. Emboldened by his decisive margin—Karzai received 55 percent of the vote, his nearest competitor 16 percent—the President wasted little time in setting forth an ambitious agenda that he will be hard pressed to fulfill.

In his first public statement since his victory in the Afghan elections, Karzai yesterday declared that his government will put an end to private militias and drug running. "The Afghan people have voted for a government based on laws, based on institutions, and that is what we are going to provide for them."

Karzai insisted that officials involved in the drug trade or human rights abuses would not be invited into the government, and that he was under no obligation to offer top cabinet posts to his chief political rivals. The vote may give Karzai the legal mandate to form his cabinet as he sees fit, but it is unlikely he will have the legitimacy to take the bold step of excluding unsavory figures with strong political support, warn some analysts. Vikram Parekh of the International Crisis Group noted that "on the balance it looks like, in rural areas, the bulk of the people voted for individuals who he would like to exclude from his next cabinet." In heavy Hazara and Uzbek regions, for example, voters chose regional leaders over Karzai by a 4 to 1 margin or more, and Karzai's dominant position is largely a result of his sweep of the Pashtun vote (he received 90 percent or more of the vote in many of these provinces, which constitute 40 percent of the country's population.) The electoral map provides a revealing look at the ethnic divide; you can also review vote tallies in specific provinces here.

Karzai may seek to avoid a political showdown by claiming only to enforce technical requirements within the Afghan constitution that require each Afghan minister to have a university degree, a provision that would disqualify Yunoos Qanooni, Mohammad Mohaqeq, and Mohammad Qasim Fahim, among others.

Further evidence that the tent may be shrinking surfaced last week when a list of potential cabinet members was leaked by a member of Karzai's team and printed in a Kabul newspaper. The list, overwhelmingly Pashtun, suggests that the President may reject a coalition cabinet. But some say this represents a wish list and is not a likely slate. But, according to a one senior Afghan government official, who spoke to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty on condition of anonymity, Karzai may revise his ambitious plan and opt instead for a diverse cabinet not far different from the status quo. With no parliament in place until April, cabinet inclusion is the only way to give a governing stake to different factions.

Karzai must select a cabinet before the end of November, and his choices will tell us a lot about how aggressively he plans to pursue his reform agenda. Will he include political figures or technocrats? Will he seek ethnic inclusion or surround himself only with loyal allies? There are dangers to being bold, but the risks of being overcautious may be just as great. After all, the next five months before Parliamentary elections constitute a brief window when Karzai is unfettered by procedural opposition, and reform may be much harder after April.