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May 10, 2006
This Week in Afghanistan Watch
"It will be NATO's most challenging ground operation ever, conducted in parallel with overall change in NATO."
—Hikmet Cetin, NATO's civilian representative in Afghanistan
“I think that NATO has staying power. There may be debates in the alliance before we launch these operations, but once they are launched everybody knows what we are going in for.”
—Jamie Shea, director of policy planning,
Office of NATO secretary-general
"With so much at stake, it is surprising that the administration asked for a pittance (about $40 million) for Afghan reconstruction in its recent supplemental, after the State Department and the U.S. Embassy requested about 10 times as much. Still worse, Congress compounded the lowered funding request by cutting the appropriation to $4 million."
—Ambassador Richard Holbrooke
"We get that every single time we go to a village. There's never any bad guys, there've never been any bad guys, and if there were any, they'd tell us immediately."
—Captain Frank Brooks
Remember Afghanistan? A Glass Half Full, On the Titanic
 World Policy Journal, Spring 2006
By Carl Robichaud
In June 2005, a U.S. infantry battalion hunting for Taliban insurgents in the Zabol province of southern Afghanistan came upon the remote village of Badamtoy , where they were warmly greeted. After providing gifts of medicine and toys, the commanding officer asked to speak with the village elder. The elder, when asked about the Taliban, replied that they had not been seen for months. The officer launched into what he termed his “unity speech,” urging the villagers to present their needs to Zabol’s governor and to vote in the upcoming parliamentary elections. The elder smiled and nodded and thanked the Americans for their generosity. Only later did the interpreter recount that the elder had found even the officer’s modest steps too dangerous. “If I do that, I won’t stay alive very long,” the elder told him. “You guys are very nice. But you only come around once in a while. The Taliban will come here as soon as you are gone.”
This exchange represents Afghanistan ’s dilemma in microcosm. Since the Taliban were ousted in 2001, the nation has made substantial progress in refugee repatriation and education, women’s rights, and democratic governance. Yet this progress has been wholly contingent upon international aid and security forces—neither of which will persist indefinitely. The nation now has but a brief window of opportunity to achieve self-sufficiency and escape the cycle of poverty and violence that has enveloped it for more than a generation.
Download the complete article (PDF) |
Afghanistan by the numbers:
- Suicide attacks in the past two days, according to NATO officials: at least 5
- Suicide attacks in the past two months: 20
- Suicide bombers that Taliban officials claim they have recruited: 200
Source
- Number of militants killed since last July in tribal areas, according to Pakistani officials: 324
- Number of them who were foreigners: 76
- Pakistani soldiers killed in battles in North Waziristan: 56
- Pakistani soldiers killed in north Waziristan, 2004: “hundreds”
- Number of troops Pakistan says it has deployed along the frontier: 80,000
Source
Source
Britain Takes Command of NATO Force in Afghanistan
This initial transition should see more continuity than change, with the Brits and Canadians capable of, and willing to, engage in a forceful counterinsurgency campaign. In the short run, General Richards has good reason to be "more than confident the skeptics will be proved wrong". But what happens when the NATO rotation includes less robust NATO forces—or if the United States continues to withdraw troops for political considerations?
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British Lt. Gen. David J. Richards, who assumed control this week of ISAF. Source: NATO
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KABUL, May 4 (NYT) By Carlotta Gall—Britain took command of the NATO peacekeeping force in Afghanistan today in preparation for the force's expansion into the turbulent south and southeast of Afghanistan over the coming months…Lt. Gen. David Richards takes command immediately of 9,000 troops of the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force, which is stationed in Kabul and the north and west of the country and primarily performs reconstruction activities.
By the end of July, he will also assume command of NATO and other forces in southern Afghanistan , adding combat operations against insurgents to NATO's mission of stabilization and security. The arrival of 6,000 NATO troops in the south will allow the United States to reduce its force of 19,000 by 2,000 to 3,000 in August. American forces will remain in the border provinces of eastern Afghanistan and are expected to come under the NATO flag by November, giving General Richards command of the entire international military force across the whole country…
| As we know, security in the south and southeast is still borderline. NATO will be challenged, but as NATO is ready for this challenge. |
NATO does plan to do some things differently, General Richards said. At a news briefing after the ceremony, he said NATO would not hold detainees, nor would it hand them over to American detention facilities, but would pass them to the Afghan law enforcement agencies under a carefully monitored system.
He also promised that his troops would respect Islam and the cultural traditions of Afghanistan . Asked if his troops would continue to raid houses, which has upset many communities, he said the issue was at the top of his "list," and that while he would not entirely constrain his troops from searching a house, he was advising them not to conduct such searches when there is any doubt about the necessity.
Human Rights Watch: Reject Abusers as Police Chiefs
A press release from Human Rights Watch calls for Karzai to exclude violators from police posts. Despite its importance--or perhaps because of it-- Afghanistan ’s police force remains one of the least reformed institutions.
New York , May 4, 2006—President Hamid Karzai should not appoint known human rights abusers and warlords as provincial police chiefs, Human Rights Watch said today.
If these men are appointed, Karzai would be sacrificing the country’s long-term interests in order to cement alliances with some of the country’s worst human rights abusers. |
In the coming days, President Karzai will appoint candidates for Afghanistan ’s 34 provincial police posts. Karzai has now begun to review candidates for these positions, which are the country’s top police positions.
At least four of the current candidates for provincial police chief were barred from standing as candidates in last year’s parliamentary elections for having links to illegal militias. Other potential appointees are known human rights abusers, warlords and drug-traffickers. Several of the candidates have been implicated in murder, torture, intimidation, bribery, government corruption and interfering with police investigations…
In recent months Karzai has appointed temporary police chiefs like Mustapha Khan in Logar province, a one-time candidate in the parliamentary elections who was banned from running for election because of his relationships to illegal militias. Karzai is now considering the permanent appointment of Khan despite his known unlawful activities.
Human Rights Watch expressed serious concern about the possible permanent appointment of Kabul’s police chief, Jamil Jumbish, who has been implicated in murder, torture, intimidation, bribery and interfering with investigations into misconduct by officers directly under his control. He is currently under investigation by the Afghan government for involvement in the torture and death of two men in his custody. Jumbish has allegedly used his position of power to sell police posts and is accused of possession of illegal weapons, which he has refused to turn over to the appropriate authorities.
Pakistan rejects US remarks on al Qaeda, Taliban
ISLAMABAD, May 7 (Reuters)—Pakistan on Sunday angrily rejected remarks by a senior U.S. security official that Islamabad was not doing enough to help flush out Taliban and al Qaeda leaders from its territory.
U.S. State Department Coordinator for counter-terrorism Henry Crumpton said in Kabul on Saturday that most of the Taliban and al Qaeda leadership had found safe haven in Pakistan 's lawless tribal belt that borders Afghanistan.
While the United States did not know where Osama bin Laden was hiding, the al Qaeda leader was probably on the Pakistani side of the Afghan border, he said.
Pakistani military spokesmen, Major-General Shuakat Sultan, denounced the remarks. "He (Crumpton) came here and met Pakistani officials and praised Pakistan 's role in the war on terror. He did not mention these things.” …
Over half of Canadians surveyed opposed to soldiers in Afghanistan
May 6, By Jason Satur—54% Canadians surveyed by The Strategic Counsel say they oppose Canadian involvement in the region, which is up 13 percentage points from a similar poll done in mid-March. Quebecers appear to have the strongest opposition with 70% of respondents opposed to the military mission. That's up 17 percentage points since the same March period.
Strategic Counsel president Allan Gregg says opposition stems in part from the rising death toll of Canadian soldiers. Gregg said other factors include the debate over flying flags at half mast and the media ban on covering the return of dead soldiers.
15 Canadian soldiers and one Canadian diplomat have been killed in Afghanistan since Canadian troops first arrived there in 2002.
Terrorist attacks on the rise
Twenty bombings in two months: a precipitous climb. The Post article is the first quote I’ve seen in which a military source attributes the trend to strategy, rather than desperation.
Suicide Bombings in Afghanistan Increase Sharply
Islamabad , May 2 (Voice of America) By Benjamin Sand—Over Suicide bomb attacks have increased dramatically in Afghanistan during the past few days…
New Attacks Foment Fear in Afghanistan
KABUL, April 13, (WP) by Pamela Constable—A spate of terrorist attacks, from the murders of five medical workers in Badghis province in the north to bombings in the opium poppy region of Helmand in the south, is expanding a climate of insecurity across Afghanistan as NATO forces prepare to take over most military duties from the U.S.-led coalition.
Afghan officials vaguely blame the attacks on "enemies of Afghanistan" and denounce neighboring Pakistan for harboring Islamic insurgents bent on destroying this fragile new democracy…But a variety of foreign analysts and military officials here offer a different explanation: a vast canvas of weakly governed and unprotected territory in which drug traffickers, feuding tribesmen and opportunistic criminals -- as well as Taliban gunmen on motorbikes and mysterious suicide bombers -- operate with increasing ease, despite the presence of tens of thousands of foreign troops in the country.
"There are feudal fights, factional rivalries, people settling old scores, people opposed to anti-drug operations," said Cmdr. Susan Eagles, spokeswoman for the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force here. "There is no coordinated strategy between incidents," she added. "When there are areas of ungoverned space, where the rule of law is not in operation, it becomes a breeding ground for insurgent action."…
U.S. military officials here, who often describe Taliban terrorist attacks as acts of desperation, acknowledged concern this week over the growing use of Iraq-style suicide bombings, which have killed several dozen people this year.
"They are doing it because it is successful; they have shifted their tactics to something successful," Col. James Yonts, the U.S. military spokesman here, said Monday. He described the recent suicide bombings -- one of which nearly killed the leader of Afghanistan 's national assembly as he drove through the capital last month -- as "very hard to combat."…
The revived Taliban insurgency does not appear to have established a political foothold in Afghan society. But it has burned more than 200 schools and forced numerous foreign aid groups to retreat from much of the south and southeast. In the tribal areas just across the Pakistan border, moreover, Taliban adherents have begun carving out pockets of parallel rule, settling local disputes and beheading suspected informants. Until the Afghan government begins to establish a solid official presence across the country, including in security, justice and social services, several analysts here said, no number of foreign troops will be able to quash the terrorist and criminal violence.
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A young Gulbuddin Hekmatyar. Source |
Hekmatyar vows to back Al Qaeda
Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, once a major recipient of U.S. arms and money during the 1980s, released a video tape this week declaring his official support for Osama bin Laden and offering to shelter Al Qaeda leaders. A favorite of the ISI during the struggle against the Soviets, Hekmatyar’s Hezb-i-Islami Afghanistan (HIA) party was among the best funded, organized, and influential of the mujahidin resistance groups. Today, his faction is the leading source of resistance in the east.
Hekymatyar has for several years fought alongside anti-government and anti-coalition forces, though according to some Afghan sources the relationship became more formalized when Gulbuddin elder son, Jalaluding Hekmatyar, reached agreement with Taliban and al Qaeda fighters in Pakistan last year to coordinate operations.
Some have downplayed Hekymatyar's announcement. "It makes no difference if Hekmatyar joins Taliban or al-Qaida as they have already established cooperation," journalist and writer Ahmad Shafai observed. “There is nothing new in Hekmatyar's fresh announcement," said. Shafai.
Perhaps. But Hekmatyar has a Machiavellian streak, and has been known to shed his allies (one political cartoon portrays him as a chameleon.) Until recently, a truce and reconciliation with the Afghan government had been conceivable (one was offered in February 2004.) His pledge to al Qaeda makes such a political settlement even less imaginable.
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Hekmatyar depicted in a political cartoon. Source
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CAIRO, May 5, 2006 (Associated Press) By Mariam Fam—An Afghan militia leader wanted by the United States declared support for Osama bin Laden in a videotape shown yesterday, indicating his Islamic faction would be willing to shelter Al Qaeda leaders. Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, a former Afghan prime minister, controls a wide network in eastern Afghanistan, and assistance from his Hezb-e-Islami group would be valuable to Al Qaeda's leaders, who are Arabs and don't speak the myriad of Afghan languages.
''We hope to participate with them in a battle that they lead. They hold the banner and we stand alongside them as supporters," Hekmatyar said in the tape, which was shown on Al-Jazeera.
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Afghanistan Watch is prepared by Carl Robichaud, a program officer at The Century Foundation.
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