This Week in Afghanistan Watch:

• Latest News: Arab detainees escape Bagram, Oil supply from Pakistan remains suspended, Britain to shift Iraq forces to Afghanistan
• Featured Article: Afghan opium: Turning vice to virtue?
• The Taliban reconciliation drive examined

July 14, 2005

This Week's News:

Four Arabs Escape From U.S. Prison in Afghanistan

KABUL, July 12 (Washington Post) by N.C. Aizenman—Four Arab detainees described by a U.S. official as "dangerous enemy combatants" slipped out of the fortress-like U.S. military prison at Bagram air base before dawn Monday, sparking a massive manhunt in the surrounding area by U.S. and Afghan forces, according to officials from both countries.

Also on Monday, U.S. military officials announced that American forces had located the body of the last of four Navy SEALs missing since a June 28 firefight with insurgents in northeastern Konar province.

Soldiers establish a security perimeter after exiting a U.S. Army CH-47 Chinook helicopter during a Quick Reaction Force exercise at the East River Range near Bagram, Afghanistan. Source: Department of Defense

Oil Supply from Pakistan to Afghanistan Suspended

Landi Kotal July 13 (Khyber Agency), (AKI/DAWN)—Oil supply to Afghanistan from Pakistan remained suspended for the second day on Tuesday as oil tanker drivers refused to cross the border unless measures were taken in Afghanistan for their protection. A spokesperson for the oil tankers, Amin Shah, said that the oil supply to Afghanistan would remain suspended till more than 100 vehicles stranded at the Latha Bund area of Afghanistan were released and a safe passage into Afghanistan was provided to them.

According to a report Monday by DAWN, an English-language Pakistan newspaper, the freeze resulted from "a scuffle between Afghan government officials and oil tanker drivers in Latha Bund area, near Kabul. A tanker driver said their vehicles were not allowed to proceed to Kabul by the Afghan officials posted at Latha Bund on the pretext that the route was not suitable for heavy traffic. However, when drivers insisted on opening the route, the Afghan security officials abused and thrashed them, he alleged." This follows after reports last week that several Pakistani oil tankers providing fuel to U.S. forces were bombed in Spin Boldak.

News Clampdown on Afghan Front

In a July 5 editorial, Marie-France Calle commented on a troubling development: the increased difficult reporters face in getting accurate information on military operations in Afghanistan. Below is an excerpt, translated from the French by Leslie Thatcher.

July 5 2005 (Le Figaro) by Marie-France Calle—It is becoming very difficult to get information on military operations….The announcement yesterday of the arrest by Kabul's intelligence services of four Afghan journalists who had left to cover the operations of American and Afghan forces in Kunar province following the Chinook helicopter crash will not help transparency. The Afghan reporters worked for foreign outlets: Radio Free Europe and a press agency the name of which was not released. Imprisoned at the end of last week, they are supposed to be brought back to Kabul after being interrogated locally.

One of the Radio Free Europe journalists asserts he was arrested after he went to a village that had been bombed Friday by American forces, a bombardment that occasioned a controversy. Friday, the Taliban's Abdul Latif Hakimi had called foreign editors in Kabul to inform them that "twenty-five civilians, including women, children, and old people," had been killed in an American Army raid in Kunar province. Sunday, the governor of the province, Assadullah Wafa, assured that, "according to the information (he had), twenty Taliban militants had been killed," but no civilians. The same Wafa asserted yesterday to AFP: "Seventeen civilians were also killed." Which the Americans ended up acknowledging last night.

One thing is certain: at a little more than two months before the legislative elections scheduled for September 18, the Taliban seem better armed and better organized than they were before the Presidential election on October 9, 2004...

UK seeks to free troops for Afghanistan

July 6, 2005 (The Guardian) by Richard Norton-Taylor—Military commanders are making plans for a major cutback in the number of British forces in Iraq as they prepare to take over responsibility for security in Afghanistan which, they say, the US wants to leave as soon as possible…They say the number of British troops in Iraq could be cut to fewer than 2,000 over the next 12 to 18 months. There are some 9,000 there now. That would make it much easier for Britain to meet its commitment to take over the lead Nato role in Afghanistan from next May.

Though military officials say Britain could maintain a significant presence in Iraq as well as deploying 4,000 troops in Afghanistan, it would place a serious burden on the army. It is already under such pressure that training is being affected. There is also a financial burden: British military operations in Iraq cost about £1bn a year. The deployment in Afghanistan is estimated to cost half of that over three years.

Featured Article:

Today's featured article was published in the New York Times, placing the spotlight on an idea as bold as it is commonsensical: licensing and regulating the use of Afghanistan's narcotics for international medical use.

We frequently hear about the Afghan drug crisis, but according to the Senlis Counicil there is a parallel problem: a global shortfall of 10,000 tons per year of pain medication. That's equivalent to twice the opiates produced today in Afghanistan.

The Senlis plan claims to offer a solution the most daunting problem faced by Afghanistan's economy: how do you stop illicit opium without impoverishing farmers and pulling the plug on the country's primary growth engine? Despite its negative consequences, the influx of drug money has had a multiplier effect, catalyzing a dramatic economic revival and helping to alleviate some of the world's most acute poverty. The Senlis plan promises to end a system that is unjust and unsustainable and replace it with legitimate and durable export. The following is an excerpt from the op-ed, and some commentary:

Let a Thousand Licensed Poppies Bloom

July 13, 2005 (New York Times) by Maia Szalavitz—Even as Afghanistan's immense opium harvest feeds lawlessness and instability, finances terrorism and fuels heroin addiction, the developing world is experiencing a severe shortage of opium-derived pain medications, according to the World Health Organization. Developing countries are home to 80 percent of the world's population, but they consume just 6 percent of the medical opioids. In those countries, most people with cancer, AIDS and other painful conditions live and die in agony.

The United States wants Afghanistan to destroy its potentially merciful crop, which has increased sevenfold since 2002 and now constitutes 60 percent of the country's gross domestic product. But why not bolster the country's stability and end both the pain and the trafficking problems by licensing Afghanistan with the International Narcotics Control Board to sell its opium legally?

The Senlis Council, a European drug-policy research institution, has proposed this truly winning solution. Adopting it would improve the Afghan economy, deprive terrorists of income and keep heroin away from dealers and addicts, all while offering pain relief to the third world….

Of course, the Senlis plan does present serious logistical problems. Warlords would not relinquish profits without a fight, and their attempts to undermine the proposal could be formidable.

But think of it this way: what's an easier sell with farmers, hard cash now or pesticide spraying and potentially empty promises of economic assistance? Few Afghans begrudge farmers' efforts to feed their families - but many would turn against greedy planters who continued supplying drug lords despite adequate alternatives.

The real barriers here are political, not practical. The Afghan government initially appeared open to the proposal: its counternarcotics minister spoke at a Senlis meeting in Vienna in March. But another minister later dismissed the idea in front of foreign reporters and Hamid Karzai ducked the question in a March meeting with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

The Bush administration has criticized Mr. Karzai's "leadership" on opium (despite his call for "jihad on drugs") but refuses to support measures beyond eradication. Responding to the Senlis proposal, one former State Department official who had been working on narcotics and law enforcement told The Christian Science Monitor: "Anything that went about legalizing an opiate in that market would send exactly the wrong message. It would suggest that there is something legitimate to growing."

But there is: countries like India are licensed by the International Narcotics Control Board to grow opium because modern medicine cannot find anything better than opioids to relieve pain. And think of the goodwill such a gesture could produce, a message that we literally want to assuage the world's suffering - not to mention that of the 30 million to 50 million Americans who endure chronic pain…

The Senlis program, for all its promise, is not without problems. Here are a few of questions that must be answered:

• How to address the issue of impunity? For years now, Afghan authorities have told farmers and traffickers to cease and desist. To now allow them to turn their crop into a legal source of profit would reward those who defied the law and punish those who complied.
• What impact would a flood of cheap painkillers have? The Senalis proposal would place thousands of tons of legal opiates into the hands of doctors worldwide. It would be an experiment of a scale never tried. But what if these drugs find their way onto the black market or become a source of arbitrage? Could they lead to an increase in opiate addiction?
• Can moral authority against poppies be maintained? There was (at least until recently) a sense among Afghans that these drugs were immoral. Would accepting their legitimacy in certain circumstances undermine attempts to fight illicit production?

Nevertheless, the proposal should receive some serious consideration - especially since none of the alternatives have a good record of success. At the very least, government and NGO funders should support a feasibility study to see if licensed poppies could help. It would certainly be worth a few dollars now to see what our options are before sinking hundreds of millions into the unappealing alternatives.

Afghanistan Watch will be examining the Senlis plan and other drug policy options in more detail in the coming weeks.

For more information:

• The Senlis Council
• The Kabul International Symposium on Global Drug Policy
• The Kabul Working Day On Drug Policy
• The Opium Production Challenge in Afghanistan
• The 4th International Symposium on Global Drug Policy: Vienna 2005
• The Third International Symposium on Global Drug Policy: Paris 2004
• 2004 EPC Dialogue and IFJ Prize Ceremony Brussels
  

Taliban Reconciliation Drive Examined

Afghanistan Coaxing Mid-Level Taliban into Fold

This article offers some revealing details about the Taliban reconciliation drive, and is worth reading in its entirety.

KHOST, July 6, 2005 (SF Chronicle) by Declan Walsh— …Dozens of mid-level Taliban officials have quietly defected this year, a process U.S. authorities hope will help end the insurgency that has dogged Afghanistan since 2001Reconciliation drives in at least four southern provinces -- led by governors, mullahs and tribal leaders -- have netted a small but influential group, including several commanders and Mullah Mohammed Nazim, a onetime governor of the former Taliban stronghold of Zabul.

The U.S. military, anxious to free troops for Iraq duty and to reduce its $10 billion annual bill in Afghanistan, supports the initiative. It advocates pursuing 100 senior Taliban leaders while allowing lower ranks to return home under an amnesty.

Still, there are many complications. Last spring, the Taliban's leader, Mullah Mohammed Omar, scotched hopes of an early truce by rejecting an amnesty offer from the Afghan government's leading negotiator, former President Sibghatullah Mojaddedi.

Afghan officials say the resurgent Taliban seems to be influenced by reinvigorated ties with al Qaeda, whose militants are suspected of having a hand in a suicide bombing in Kandahar last month that killed 20 people, including the Kabul police chief, Gen. Akram Khakrezwal.

"It's not a traditionally Afghan thing. That may be the significance of the attack -- it shows the influence of a global jihadi network," said Joanna Nathan, a senior analyst with the International Crisis Group, a conflict-analysis organization based in Brussels...But Karzai has yet to announce a full, national amnesty for Taliban fighters -- something that looks increasingly distant given the surge in fighting of recent months. He is under pressure from allies within the former Northern Alliance, who have a deep loathing for the Taliban -- their enemy during the civil war in the 1990s. Human rights groups insist the Taliban must be held accountable for their numerous abuses, including their brutal treatment of women and the mass execution of enemy soldiers…

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Afghanistan Watch is prepared by Carl Robichaud, a program officer at The Century Foundation.

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