Elections in Afghanistan could be problematic

As talk swirls over whether Zalmay Khalilzad will run for Afghan president and Karzai attempts to project his authority to prepare for what could be a possible re-election bid, a U.S. Army report finds cause for worry about national elections in Afghanistan. Michael J. Metrinko, of the Army’s Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute, looks at problems with future Afghan elections in the face of deteriorating security.

Overcoming the Obstacles to Establishing a Democratic State in Afghanistan

Col. Dennis Young of the Strategic Studies Institute at the US Army War College adds to the chorus of voices urging the Bush administration to divert troops, effort and financial aid to Afghanistan. He also suggests five adjustments to current ISAF and U.S. strategies:

World Policy Journal piece

Below is an excerpt from a piece I wrote for this month's World Policy Journal. In it I argue that a too-narrow focus on counterinsurgency operations has undermined the mission in Afghanistan. The challenge today is recalibrating our approach to combine the right combination of military and non-military tools. You can download the full article here.

Buying Time in Afghanistan By Carl Robichaud, World Policy Journal, Fall 2007:   Afghanistan is increasingly seen as Iraq in slow motion. It is not. The headlines of car bombs and casualty tolls echo each other, but mask deep differences in each society and in the dynamics of each insurgency. As Iraq has descended into civil war, Afghanistan’s center has held. The government remains weak, but power holders and the public show no appetite for a return to internecine fighting. The insurgency remains solvent because of safe havens across the border in Pakistan, but has been unable to expand upon its toehold in Afghanistan or offer a compelling alternative to the status quo. MORE

Death toll up to 68, two arrested in attack

Sixty eight civilians have been buried, a hundred more are wounded, and countless questions remain. The provincial police chief Gen. Abdul Rahman Sayed Khail said two suspects had been arrested; these men apparently ordered women to leave the area shortly before the blast.

Alix Kroeger of the BBC gives voice to what many of us are wondering…

Another puzzling aspect of the Baghlan bombing is the sheer number of people killed, making it the deadliest such attack in Afghanistan's history. Put bluntly, most suicide bombings here kill only the bombers themselves.

There are still some people who believe, partly because of the devastating death toll, that it was not a suicide bomb at all. Forensic investigators are now at work in Baghlan, but it will be some time before their findings are released.

I have no special knowledge here, but count me among the skeptics. Have you ever seen this level of carnage from a single suicide bomber? Virtually all of the massive attacks in Iraq have been from vehicle bombs or pre-positioned explosives. That's not to say that the bombing was not from the Taliban, but there are some key details missing. MORE

Massive terror attack in Baghlan strikes parliamentarians

Today Baghlan -- a northern city that had been relatively peaceful -- suffered one of the worst suicide attacks in Afghanistan's history. The attack targeted a delegation of 18 lawmakers visiting from Kabul, killing at least two dozen and injured many more. Casualty estimates vary, and could be much, much higher (The AP reported 64 dead, Afghan TV 100...)

The bomb struck as the visiting delegates from the lower house were entering a sugar factory to celebrate its re-opening (Baghlan is the country's top producer of sugar beets).

The Taliban immediately issued a denial, but such denials have proved fallacious in the past. Hekmatyar's men are active in Baghlan.

The attack killed five parliamentarians, including Sayed Mustafa Kazemi, a former minister of commerce who was recently a leader and spokesmen for the National Front opposition group.

Afghan National Television reported that several other members of Parliament were killed: 

• Abdul Mateen, a former communist engineer from the southern province of Helmand;
• Qudrutallah Zaki from the northern province of Takhar;
• Said Rahman Hehmat from Kunar Province in the east;
• Muhammed Arif Zarif from Kabul.

In addition, dozens of civilians, including elders and children, were among the dead and injured.

None of the news reports I've seen describe the attack itself. It seems unlikely a single bomber on foot could have wreaked such carnage. Was it a vehicle bomb? Were the bombs planted in advance? 

Photo: Sayed Mustafa Kazemi in a 2002 meeting with American Ambassador Robert Finn.

WPR piece on private security contractors

Below is a piece I wrote, published today in the World Politics Review (an online foreign policy daily.)

Private Military Contractors in Afghanistan, Carl Robichaud | 30 Oct 2007

After the Sept. 16 Blackwater scandal, which drew unprecedented attention to the role played by private security contractors (PSCs) in Iraq, these firms have increasingly come under scrutiny in other theaters of war, such as Afghanistan. But while efforts in Afghanistan to rein in PSCs seem to parallel those in Iraq, they are driven by different dynamics -- and have very different implications. MORE 

A look inside the Asia Foundation survey

The Asia Foundation released it's third survey of the Afghan people today. Polling in Afghanistan should by no means be seen as dispositive, but this data can provide insights unavailable elsewhere (especially compared with prior baseline surveys by the Asia Foundation in 2004 and 2006). Here's a look inside...

Predictably, media reports framed the poll as a referendum on security (see AFP: “Security fears up sharply among Afghans: survey”) It’s true that pessimism about security rose among Afghans--with 32 percent citing security as their top concern (up from 22 percent last year.)

But the picture is more complicated, since security concerns vary significantly by region and two thirds of Afghans felt that security in their area was good. Moreover, among those who believe the country is headed in the right direction, good security is cited as the second most important reason (34%) after development.

So the Survey paints a nuanced picture and provides some fascinating data on everything from support for traditional institutions (such as Shuras and Jirga) to democracy and women’s rights. A few trends worth noting:

Right Direction / Wrong Direction:

• People are still optimistic, even if there was a slight decline in those who said the country was headed in the right direction (from 44 percent to 42 percent).
• Three-quarters of Afghans continue to assess government performance positively (i.e. either strongly (25%) or somewhat strongly (55%).)
• Afghans continue to espouse confidence in national security forces (both army and police) as well as in traditional institutions such as Shuras and Jirgas. However, “less than half of the respondents had confidence in the government's justice system, political parties and local militias.”
•  Corruption is an issue for many Afghans, but it is not clear that it has grown more acute. Some poll questions suggest an increase in perceptions of corruption while others suggest a decrease.
  

Security:

• Among people who felt the country was going in the wrong direction, security was cited as the top reason. This may seem unsurprising, until you realize that even in last year’s survey security was only rarely mentioned as a reason for a “wrong direction” response.
• On the other hand, among those who said the country was going in the right direction, good security was cited as the second biggest reason (34%).
• Perceptions of security varied greatly by region. Nationwide, “sixty-six percent of the respondents felt that security in their area was good or quite good, and 50 percent said they rarely or never feared for their own or their family's safety. Eighty-two percent said no one in their family had been a victim of any crime or violence during the last one year.” 

Reconstruction:

• Last year, respondents cited “rebuilding of the country” as only the fourth most important reason why the country was headed in the right direction; this year it became the most important reason for believing so (39%). It’s not clear whether people feel reconstruction is going better, or that the other trends they cited as reasons for optimism last year (security, peace, disarmament) are simply going worse. MORE
  

Draft GoA rules for private security contractors

The Associated Press obtained a draft of the policy being discussed by the Government of Afghanistan on security contractors. The document must receive approval from the Cabinet before entering into effect. It notes that "the GOA (government of Afghanistan) has allowed for limited PSC operations and activities. However, increasingly, the absence of targeted regulation ... in parallel with unstable security environment has generated an unfortunate and nearly anarchical PSC market with a long series of security problems and criminal activities." Here are the highlights:

Extensive reliance of PSCs (private security companies), risks deepening the current state of instability in at least 4 ways: MORE

Afghanistan's "land mafia"

A 200 word piece today by the BBC highlights an important trend and leaves us wanting more details. The emergence of the so-called "land mafia" (a term that probably makes it sound more centrally organized than it us...) has broad repercussions, especially since Afghanistan lacks enforceable, consistent land rights. Multiple land registries allow well-connected strongmen to stake claims with impunity, and the lack of a functioning legal system leaves victims with no recourse.

The lack of security vis a vis land and property rights remains one of the major impediments to investment in Afghanistan. This briefly received some attention in 2003 when refugees streamed home -- only to find someone else there. It's still a big issue today, but the last serious work I've seen on this is the AREU's 2003 report ( Land Rights in Crisis). Sounds to me like a prize-winning expose just waiting for the right journalist...

Powerful 'grab Afghanistan land' By Stephanie Irvine (BBC)  Sept 6: The Afghan urban development minister says land is being appropriated illegally by powerful individuals at a rate of two sq km (0.8 sq miles) a day. Former military commanders, members of parliament and senior officials are seizing land and then selling it on illegally, says Yousaf Pashthun.

Image: Urban Development Minister Mohammad Yousaf Pashthun. BBC.

Triumph of the Tube...

"With democracy comes television. It's hard for some people to get used to."  - Saad Mohseni, founder of Tolo TV

Indeed, one study shows that two-thirds of Afghans living in the five most urban provinces watch TV every day or almost every day. The NY Times today shines the spotlight on what is, for most Afghans, as big a cultural change as any... 

A massive phenomenon in Afghanistan: Television. By Barry Bearak (IHT/NYT July 31):...Since the fall of the Taliban in late 2001, Afghanistan has been developing in fits and starts. Among the unchanging circumstances that still give people fits: continuing war, inept leaders, corrupt police and woeful living conditions...But television is off to a phenomenal start, with Afghans now engrossed -- for better or worse --  in much of the same escapist fare that seduces the rest of the world: soap operas that pit the unbearably conniving against the implausibly virtuous; chefs preparing meals that most people would never eat in kitchens they could never afford; talk show hosts wheedling secrets from those too shameless to keep their troubles to themselves. MORE

"Cops or Robbers?" AREU's must-read report on police reform

Donors are finally realizing the importance of police reform. Unfortunately, some of the response has been to throw money at the problem--the latest infusion of funding, for example, focuses on training and equipment, as if the police problem were primarily a technocratic challenge rather than a political one.

Andrew Wilder, research director at Tuft's Feinstein Center, is the author the AREU's remarkable new report on the topic entitled "Cops or Robbers? The Struggle to Reform the Afghan National Police". He argues that there is still no consensus about the role of police, and too little appreciation that the Ministry of the Interior is part of the problem. The paper highlights five challenges. Donors will need to:

Tom Perriello: Amnesty Update

I want to make a brief amendment to my earlier post about the national amnesty bill based on two recent meetings. One was with a leading Afghan law professor and another was with one of a top government official on Parliamentary affairs. Both have insisted that the national amnesty act was merely a Parliamentary Declaration rather than a law. They both cited the same definitive proof – under the Afghan Constitution a law can only originate and be drafted by the taqnin within the ministry of justice. Otherwise the motion is just a Declaration.

Tom Perriello: Lessons from the Amnesty Fight

In many ways, the political showdown this spring over the national amnesty bill serves as a Rorschach test -- observers will see proof of whatever broader view they have about Afghanistan.

The accomodationist/engagement camp points to the rally at the National Stadium (and the near evacuation of UNAMA personnel it triggered) as proof of what they have been saying all along -- a call for justice will upset the delicate balance of Afghan politics. Talk of transitional justice is as naïve as it is dangerous, and should be shelved until further notice.

Alternatively, the accountability crowd sees in this showdown proof that the warlords have much more bark than bite. They point to the fact that despite claims to swarm the streets of Kabul with 250,000 people, the entire United Front produced fewer than 20,000 protesters. Further, these “protesters” were motivated primarily by the free lunch and 50 afghanis.

Then there is the populist account that has shown up in a surprising number of interviews with Afghans: namely, that the amnesty bill was driven by the United States. The logic goes that this is another example of the U.S. protecting its close allies, which include some of the most notorious warlords. The argument continues that the U.S. is also far from eager for a zealous prosecutor to dig into its own complicity in war crimes past or present. Many Afghans remain strongly in favor of aggressive prosecutions, but are increasingly convinced that neither Karzai nor the international community will ever permit these to happen.

Before analyzing the validity of and lessons from these arguments, it is worth noting a few places where these different accounts generally agree:  MORE

Grounds for hope--Coleman and Charney cite progress in women's rights

  Amidst the prevailing winds of pessimism it is good to have a reminder of how much ground Afghanistan's women have gained, both in legal rights and in societal acceptance of those rights. The polling data is truly striking--80% accept women in parliament, 70% in the workforce; 88% support education for girls. This data has held robust in survey after survey (in the piece below, Charney references data which is consistent with his first survey in 2004.)

Two caveats: first, these favorable views do not appear to be strongly held, and second, among influential elites the picture is quite different. Nevertheless, as Coleman and Charney remind us, "applying unrealistic yardsticks to Afghanistan leaves us unable to see important changes taking place there."

There are grounds for hope in Afghanistan. June 18, 2007, (Globe and Mail) by CRAIG CHARNEY AND ISOBEL COLEMAN: As the Taliban and NATO spring offensives grind on, many people's perceptions of Afghanistan are pessimistic. Some say our Western efforts have changed nothing, so we will fail: The ongoing abuses against women, corruption, and warlordism are opening the door to the Taliban. Others say unless we change nothing, we will fail: Steps towards gender equality and democracy are disturbing a male-dominated, ultra-conservative society and reviving Taliban support.

These perspectives miss the real grounds for hope in Afghanistan: Afghans themselves are changing their society, with Afghan women playing a leading role. Despite the Taliban's military revival, Afghan women have won broad support for their rights to study, work, and vote, largely gained since the Taliban's 2001 ouster, and overwhelmingly reject their former oppressors. But, at the same time, Afghans are struggling to reconcile many of their Islamic traditions with the modern world, as the case of women also shows.

Photo Source: DefenseLINK: An Afghan woman of the Pashtun tribe in Kabul, Afghanistan. Photo by Senior Airman Bethann Hunt, USAF.

Away from the quick fix...

Excellent op-ed on narcotics today by Crisis Group's Nick Grono and Joanna Nathan. They succinctly rebut black and white solutions to the drug problem (large-scale eradication and regulated legalization) and suggest some wiser measures:

1. Target the 20-25 top traffickers with extradition and asset seizures.
2. Destroy labs and warehouses (ANA backed by NATO).
3. Cooperate with Iran and Pakistan to shut down middlemen operating on their terrain.
4. Focus alternative livelihood programs on areas before they produce poppy in order to inoculate farmers to its influence.

Skeptics might argue that these steps are difficult to implement with the current levels of corruption, or that they require of politicians an unrealistic embrace of moral ambiguity and long time horizons. I don't think Grono and Nathan would disagree, but they remind us that "it is much easier to say what won't work than what will."

"The challenge," they write, "will be to keep (politicians) focused on smart courses of action that yield long-term results – and away from superficially "easy" policies that end up backfiring." We should do what we can to help make these arguments.

Amb. Zahir Tanin at NYU

Last night I saw Zahir Tanin, Afghanistan's new Permanent Representative to the United Nations, speak at New York University (in conversation with scholar and journalist Alon Ben-Meir.)

Ambassador Tanin is clearly a learned man, but his comments were mostly pro-forma until the Q&A. But then things got interesting...MORE

Afghan journalists announce boycott to protest execution

AfghanWire has comprehensive coverage this week of Afghanistan's response to the murder of Ajmal Naqshbandi, the Afghan journalist beheaded by Taliban forces on Sunday. I found this phrase, from a pamphlet, particularly poignant: "The whole country is in mourning of this young man who travels to the south not to fight with any one; not to kill anyone but to guide a journalist, someone who is like a mirror to the world..."

Ajmal's execution strikes a nerve for Afghans, who in it see in it a microcosm of their national tragedy. Foreign powers get involved in Afghanistan and enlist the help of Afghan allies. But when things go wrong they'll pay any price to bail themselves out, leaving Afghans to pay the price. MORE

Photo: Ajmal Naqshbandi, the Afghan journalist who was executed by the Taliban Sunday. Source: Afghan Embassy.

Amnesty law passes; what next?

Alex Thier and Scott Worden have a piece in the Christian Science monitor that suggests that Karzai, if he plays his cards right, can "seize this opportunity to cement his leadership by transforming a self-serving attempt by warlords to avoid justice into a measure that truly sets a course for reconciliation and peace."

They argue that the outcry the bill spurred--especially from the National Council of Islamic Clerics who say it violates sharia law--is a positive sign; moreover, because of language within the amnesty provision, it "does not really protect any individual from answering for his crimes -- so long as a victim is brave enough to bring a claim." Thier and Worden argue that the best way to proceed is to implement the bill within the context of Karzai's Action Plan for Transitional Justice, which precludes amnesty for "crimes against humanity" (which are also prosecutable under international law.) In sum--and like Barney Rubin last week--they believe there's some lemonade to be wrung from these lemons. Worth a read...

Healing the wounds of the civil war requires both reconciliation and accountability
WASHINGTON (CSM) By J Alexander Thier and Scott Worden

Like every country facing the aftermath of civil war, Afghanistan is struggling to balance the need for peace and stability with demands for justice and accountability...Although President Hamid Karzai successfully negotiated a crucial amendment to protect the rights of victims of war crimes, the new amnesty law still favors the powerful warlords who sponsored the bill.

Jawad: Frustration that political participation has not led to results

From Afghanistan's ambassador to the United States, Said T. Jawad, in a CFR interview today:

"From the entire financial assistance that's been given to Afghanistan, only 5 percent has been given to the Afghan government. Twelve percent of the funds have been given to the Afghan reconstruction trust fund established for Afghanistan. And we can withdraw money under certain conditions. The remaining 82 or 83 percent of the assistance has been spent outside the budget and control of the Afghan government. MORE

Photo: CFR

Insights from a military commander

Yesterday I saw a senior U.S military commander in Afghanistan speak in New York. The event was off the record, so I cannot tell you who he was or cite direct quotes. However, this individual was on his way to House and Senate committee hearings, so there should soon be on-the-record version of these insights soon...Here are some of the most noteworthy points of his presentation:

• On the narcotics problem, he argued that the issue is less about aggregate aid and more about coming making the fractured inter-agency process work. I was shocked to learn that the counternarcotics team has five people to manage a $1 billion project (by way of comparison, there are 450 army personnel for the program on training, which has approximately the same budget.) He also noted that...MORE