New Report on the ‘Forgotten War’

The European Council on Foreign Relations has a new report out calling for U.S. and European governments to “overhaul their strategies and strike a 'grand bargain' to stabilise the country.” Significantly, it urges enticing moderates into the fold of governance and legitimacy through money and other incentives.

There will be no stability in Afghanistan unless “moderate” insurgents embrace constitutionalism and enter democratic politics. Since the Bonn Agreement in the wake of the September 11th attacks, the coalition has supported the United Islamic Front for the Salvation of Afghanistan, better known as the Northern Alliance, which brought together the main Tajik, Uzbek, and Hazara groupings. For obvious reasons it had no significant links to the Pashtuns who make up 42% of Afghanistan’s population.22 After 2001, despite Karzai’s Pashtun background, Pashtun tribal leaders were largely excluded from government and have been ever since. Many have thus aligned themselves with the resurgent Taliban. The coalition and the Afghan government must work to convince them that they can pursue their interests democratically.

There have already been signs that this is at least possible. Though President Karzai’s overtures to reclusive Taliban leader Mullah Mohammad Omar and Gulbuddin Hekmatyar were rebuffed, the Taliban, while insisting on a number of conditions, have been receptive to the idea of negotiations as proposed within Karzai's "Peace Jirga". The British Prime Minister Gordon Brown recently gave his backing to these negotiations, again with conditions attached, but the US administration remains sceptical.

Political agreements - like the failed Musa Qala deal in 2006 overseen by the then ISAF commander, General David Richards – should aim to isolate the “hard-core”, many of whom are foreigners, from more moderate, indigenous groups. Such political agreements would also help avoid the violent tactics that may have won NATO military victories last year but cost vital public support because of high civilian casualties.

An effective policy in the short term would be to identify insurgent leaders willing to cut a deal. The coalition could then operate a system of “divide and rule”, whereby intransigent insurgents would see their erstwhile comrades rewarded with a package of financial and other incentives which add up to a better deal than that offered by the Taliban. (emphasis added by editor).

The report urges European governments to send more troops to Afghanistan, eliminate or reduce the national caveats on their troops, and reverse their “underperformance” by increasing reconstruction aid. On the flip side, the report pushes the U.S. to shift its combat strategy to a more political one and abandon its counter-narcotics plans of aerial spraying or buying up opium crops. It recommends the U.S. shift the onus of the problem onto traffickers and concentrate on arresting and prosecuting drug lords and their governmental supporters.

Bagram holds more than twice as many as Guantanamo

The secretive American detention center at Bagram base now holds more than twice as many prisoners as Guantanamo Bay, according to a New York Times report. Despite American efforts to shut down the base prison and transfer detainees to Afghan facilities and oversight, the number of prisoners has continued to grow as Guantanamo stopped taking in detainees.

The Afghan facility can only hold half the people that it was initially designed for, and construction has been slowed down by security and legal issues. Meanwhile human rights groups say treatment of detainees at Bagram, which was formerly abysmal culminating with the beating deaths of two detainees, has improved overall, but overcrowding complaints persist.

Overcoming the Obstacles to Establishing a Democratic State in Afghanistan

Col. Dennis Young of the Strategic Studies Institute at the US Army War College adds to the chorus of voices urging the Bush administration to divert troops, effort and financial aid to Afghanistan. He also suggests five adjustments to current ISAF and U.S. strategies:

A roundup from December

Here’s a short news roundup of significant developments in or concerning Afghanistan from December:

Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction
The House approved the 2008 defense authorization bill, which in addition to providing $189.4 billion for military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, creates an office for a Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) and a bipartisan Commission on Wartime Contracting for more oversight of contractors in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The SIGAR is a much-needed agency to track down corruption and mismanagement in Afghanistan, much as its equivalent has done in Iraq. With this extra level of oversight and ensuring that reconstruction aid is invested properly, it will hopefully help get Afghan reconstruction back on track.

Brown's Plan for Afghanistan
UK prime minister Gordon Brown outlined his new plan for Afghanistan that included increasing aid by £450 million and tough benchmarks for Afghan security forces, encouraging Afghans to take responsibility for their own security.

Brown told MPs that aid would be given for "high impact" projects such as better roads, power supplies and clean water, as well as loans for small businesses and funding for civic groups and community development projects to improve local and national government.

You can read a transcript of Brown’s plan here. His emphasis on Afghans taking “ownership” and responsibility for their future and security is important.

In testimony before the Canadian Senate Standing Committee on National Security and Defence on Dec. 10, RAND analyst Seth Jones explained the fast growth of the Afghan insurgency, thusly:

“The answer is simple,” one senior Afghan government official told me in October 2007. “The people are losing faith in the government. Our security forces cannot protect local villages, and our institutions struggle to deliver basic services.”

He testified that people are turning to the Taliban, not because they believe in extremism but because they are losing patience with the government’s inefficacy and corruption.

Indeed, the primary challenge in Afghanistan is one of governance. Governance includes the set of institutions by which authority in a country is exercised.11 It involves the government’s ability at the national or sub-national level to establish law and order, effectively manage resources, and implement sound policies. An insurgency reflects a process of alternative state building, where insurgents compete to provide governance to the population. Insurgents take advantage of weak governance and assume state-like functions. They tax and set up administrative structures for the population they control.

A Key Test for the Afghan National Army
The Afghan National Army seems to have proven itself in a key test last month – retaking the small dusty, but strategic toehold town of Musa Qala from the Taliban. Its symbolism was tied mainly to the fact that it was the only significant town controlled by the Taliban. As Guardian reporter Jason Burke put it, “For both sides, the struggle for the small country town represents in microcosm the battle for the country as a whole.”

But the offensive also spotlights the fact that despite its success, the Afghan National Army remains severely under-equipped and under-helped.

While U.S. officials cite the achievements of the Afghan military, the force has historically suffered from high attrition rates. It has also lacked sufficient military aid and trainers, and has been hobbled by old weaponry, Afghan defense officials say.

Video: Interview with Gen. McNeill, Rashid, MacDonald

Yesterday, the NewsHour with Jim Leherer ran a good segment on Afghanistan featuring commentary by Gen. Dan McNeill, Ahmed Rashid, and Norine MacDonald (from Senlis Council). The transcript, along with streaming video, is available here.

Center on Public Integrity updates its contractor database

The Center for Public Integrity has just updated its Windfalls of War report, an investigation of US contractors in Iraq and Afghanistan. The original report, published in 2003, won the George Polk Award for journalism. It took six months to complete and involved a research team of 20 (along with  73 Freedom of Information Requests!)

The updated report, which lists the top 100 contractors, has some striking findings:

• "U.S. government contracts for work in Iraq and Afghanistan have grown more than 50 percent annually, from $11 billion in 2004 to almost $17 billion in 2005 and more than $25 billion in 2006."
• "Iraq remains the clear priority of the U.S. government, the Center's research shows, with more than seven times as many contracting dollars designated for spending there as for Afghanistan."
• "Of the $13 billion awarded through cost-plus contracts in Iraq and Afghanistan for 2004 to 2006, 30 percent was awarded through simple cost-plus, fixed-fee arrangements that offer no incentives for performance or cost savings."

The Center for Public Integrity website includes a search engine that crawls hundreds of budget documents, including reports, audits, testimony, project site inspections and correspondence. Unfortunately, it is prohibitively difficult to disaggregate spending in Afghanistan from that in Iraq in the current format (this is, in part, a function of the way many of these expenses are deliberately melded in budget documents.) I have contacted the folks at CPI, and will see if we can compile a list of the top contractors (and contracts) in Afghanistan.

Leaked map shows much of country a "no go"

A revealing map from the Times of London:

 The Times, Dec 5, Nick Meo in Kabul: Almost half of Afghanistan is now too dangerous for aid workers to operate in, a leaked UN map seen by The Times shows. In the past two years most foreign and Afghan staff have withdrawn from the southern half of the country, abandoning or scaling back development projects in rural areas and confining themselves to the cities or the less risky north....

The unpublished map, acquired by The Times in Kabul, is for UN staff and aid workers and illustrates risk levels across the nation. It shows a marked deterioration in security since 2005, when compared with a similar map from March of that year. Then only a strip along the Pakistan border and areas of mountainous Zabul and Uruzgan provinces in the south were too dangerous for aid workers. Now nearly all the ethnic Pashtun south and east is a no-go zone categorised as high or extreme risk and there are even pockets in the north of the country that are becoming dangerous for aid workers.

Assessing Afghanistan: NATO's 63 new metrics

Reuters reports yesterday that NATO has drawn up a "standardized system" of 63 metrics it will use to track progress in Afghanistan. U.S. Army Gen. John Craddock said that "I would submit to you that, to date, most of the assessments of progress have been against anecdotal information," or measured in terms of outputs such as schools built or roads paved. "All good things," he notes, "But the question in my mind is: What's the effect it's produced?" Were the roads blocked? Were the classrooms empty?

I find it more than a little bit troubling that NATO is only getting to this discussion six years in to the intervention. This sort of thinking should have been integrated from day one. In their defense, they probably had metrics, and are now revisiting them to make them meaningful.

It is, of course, a devilishly complicated undertaking. Which metrics to choose? How to weight one against another? And how to gather reliable data from the multitude of unverified sources that include donor countries, the UN, GOA, NGOs? Everyone is keeping score, but based on a different set of rules. Just thinking about it makes my head spin. I would love to see the 63 metrics NATO settled on, and hear how it plans to measure them (if anyone has insights on this, drop a line or a comment...)

NATO revamps measures of Afghan progress, by Andrew Gray (Reuters) 5 December 2007: WASHINGTON -- NATO has developed a standardized system for tracking progress in Afghanistan because the war so far has been judged largely using anecdotal evidence, the alliance's top commander said on Tuesday.

             

Competing with opium poppy?

Well, Afghanistan has finally found a crop that can compete with poppy...

Afghanistan Cannabis Crop Up 40 Percent, By RAHIM FAIEZ KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) — The fields of Balkh province in northern Afghanistan were free of opium poppies this year, a success touted often by Afghan and international officials. But one look at Mohammad Alam's fields uncovers an emerging drug problem.

Ten-foot-tall cannabis plants flourish in Alam's fields. The crop — the source of both marijuana and hashish — can be just as profitable as opium but draws none of the scrutiny from Afghan officials bent on eradicating poppies.

Cannabis cultivation rose 40 percent in Afghanistan this year, to 173,000 acres from 123,550 in 2006, the U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime estimated in its 2007 opium survey. The crop is being grown in at least 18 of Afghanistan's 34 provinces, according to the survey released last month.

The U.N. report singles out Balkh as a "leading example" of an opium-free province, saying other areas should follow "the model of this northern region where leadership, incentives and security have led farmers to turn their backs on opium." However, a section of the report says the increase in marijuana cultivation "gives cause for concern."

Quoteboard

"If you're coming as our friends, don't. If you're coming as our enemies, we will fight you."
     - Zmarai, Arghandab district police chief, in response to Taliban threats.
MORE...

World Policy Journal piece

Below is an excerpt from a piece I wrote for this month's World Policy Journal. In it I argue that a too-narrow focus on counterinsurgency operations has undermined the mission in Afghanistan. The challenge today is recalibrating our approach to combine the right combination of military and non-military tools. You can download the full article here.

Buying Time in Afghanistan By Carl Robichaud, World Policy Journal, Fall 2007:   Afghanistan is increasingly seen as Iraq in slow motion. It is not. The headlines of car bombs and casualty tolls echo each other, but mask deep differences in each society and in the dynamics of each insurgency. As Iraq has descended into civil war, Afghanistan’s center has held. The government remains weak, but power holders and the public show no appetite for a return to internecine fighting. The insurgency remains solvent because of safe havens across the border in Pakistan, but has been unable to expand upon its toehold in Afghanistan or offer a compelling alternative to the status quo. MORE

Fighting hunger in Afghanistan

Rick Corsino, Country Director of the World Food Programme in Afghanistan, argues today in the National Post that citizens and the media tend to overlook humanitarian work in Afghanistan.  "Most journalists," he notes "are more interested in going on 'embeds' with military forces than hanging out with -- superficially at least -- the less fascinating humanitarians. If journalists were to embed with the World Food Programme in Afghanistan, they would find another, less dramatic Afghan war -- the war on hunger -- and the large and innovative international effort that is fighting it."

Afghanistan Watch is guilty of this "security bias," as are the various media outlets. I know we'd like to feature more stories and analysis on humanitarian and development work, but it tends to be harder to learn of new developments in these fields. If you see some good pieces, or have ideas for what you'd like to see, please send them along...

Fighting Afghanistan's other war  by Rick Corsino: I was recently in Kandahar City, where the news bulletins will tell you the heart of the Afghan insurgency lies. Certainly, security is a major issue, but I was most struck by the literacy projects I visited, where I spent time with some of the poorest women in Afghanistan -- and that means the poorest in the world. MORE

Exports up 13 percent in first two quarters

Every year, Afghanistan imports about $5 billion dollars in goods and exports just $500 million. But this year, according to a government spokesman, exports are at least on the rise. In the first two quarters, exports have gone up 12% and 13% respectively when compared with last year.

Afghan exports include handcrafts, fresh and dry fruit, minerals, leather products, cotton and precious stones and have gone to  India, China, Pakistan, UAE, Europe and the US. The rise in exports is attributable, to some extent, on the removal of customs, barriers, and other red tape. A good trend, but obviously still a long way to go.

Afghanistan's exports up by 13pc in 2nd quarter. (Pajhwok Afghan News) by Zainab Muhammadi, KABUL, Oct 21: Afghanistan's exports had registered 13 percent increase during the second quarter of the current Afghan year as compared to the same period during last year, officials said on Sunday.

A look inside the Asia Foundation survey

The Asia Foundation released it's third survey of the Afghan people today. Polling in Afghanistan should by no means be seen as dispositive, but this data can provide insights unavailable elsewhere (especially compared with prior baseline surveys by the Asia Foundation in 2004 and 2006). Here's a look inside...

Predictably, media reports framed the poll as a referendum on security (see AFP: “Security fears up sharply among Afghans: survey”) It’s true that pessimism about security rose among Afghans--with 32 percent citing security as their top concern (up from 22 percent last year.)

But the picture is more complicated, since security concerns vary significantly by region and two thirds of Afghans felt that security in their area was good. Moreover, among those who believe the country is headed in the right direction, good security is cited as the second most important reason (34%) after development.

So the Survey paints a nuanced picture and provides some fascinating data on everything from support for traditional institutions (such as Shuras and Jirga) to democracy and women’s rights. A few trends worth noting:

Right Direction / Wrong Direction:

• People are still optimistic, even if there was a slight decline in those who said the country was headed in the right direction (from 44 percent to 42 percent).
• Three-quarters of Afghans continue to assess government performance positively (i.e. either strongly (25%) or somewhat strongly (55%).)
• Afghans continue to espouse confidence in national security forces (both army and police) as well as in traditional institutions such as Shuras and Jirgas. However, “less than half of the respondents had confidence in the government's justice system, political parties and local militias.”
•  Corruption is an issue for many Afghans, but it is not clear that it has grown more acute. Some poll questions suggest an increase in perceptions of corruption while others suggest a decrease.
  

Security:

• Among people who felt the country was going in the wrong direction, security was cited as the top reason. This may seem unsurprising, until you realize that even in last year’s survey security was only rarely mentioned as a reason for a “wrong direction” response.
• On the other hand, among those who said the country was going in the right direction, good security was cited as the second biggest reason (34%).
• Perceptions of security varied greatly by region. Nationwide, “sixty-six percent of the respondents felt that security in their area was good or quite good, and 50 percent said they rarely or never feared for their own or their family's safety. Eighty-two percent said no one in their family had been a victim of any crime or violence during the last one year.” 

Reconstruction:

• Last year, respondents cited “rebuilding of the country” as only the fourth most important reason why the country was headed in the right direction; this year it became the most important reason for believing so (39%). It’s not clear whether people feel reconstruction is going better, or that the other trends they cited as reasons for optimism last year (security, peace, disarmament) are simply going worse. MORE
  

Korb and Wadhams: Five steps

Larry Korb and Caroline Wadhams argue today in a Newsday op-ed that "the United States and NATO must increase troop levels by at least 20,000" in Afghanistan. This rise in troop levels is part of a five-point plan that includes bolstering reconstruction assistance, focusing on rule of law, and reforming U.S. aid channels to Pakistan. The steps they sketch out will be supported by a more comprehensive report in the coming months -- keep your eyes peeled ...

U.S.

must put more focus on Afghan insurgency, Oct 9, 2007: Sunday marked the sixth anniversary of the U.S.-led invasion of Afghanistan to oust the Taliban and al-Qaida....But the mission in Afghanistan is going alarmingly awry, and the United States must refocus and re-energize its policy. The administration and Congress cannot allow the sinking ship of Iraq to take Afghanistan down with it...

To achieve our security objectives, the United States, and especially Congress, must provide increased funds, attention and manpower - both civilian and military. U.S. leaders must also engage the American people, as they may become increasingly pessimistic about U.S. involvement in the Muslim world as a result of the war in Iraq. There are five concrete steps Congress and the administration should pursue immediately. MORE

Have PhD in Anthropology, will travel...

I was surprised to find this piece had climbed to the second most emailed article in the New York Times today, but perhaps I shouldn't have been. Interesting, well-reported, and counterintuitive.

• Video

It's odd to find that a field so synonymous with The Academy has become a coveted commodity (much to the chagrin of certain professors, cited in the article, who seem philosophically averse to using their discipline for anything pragmatic...)

Can you imagine all the Anthropology majors emailing their parents to say "I told you so?" And can you imagine what better shape we'd be today if we entered Afghanistan with a modicum of understanding of its cultural context? The Army seems to now appreciate the importance of these skills, but it's a steep learning curve. (One could also question whether the Army is the right institution to be delivering governance and services...)

Anthropologists help U.S. Army in Afghanistan and Iraq, By David Rohde, Oct 4 (NYT):  SHABAK VALLEY, Afghanistan: In this isolated Taliban stronghold in eastern Afghanistan, American paratroopers are fielding what they consider a crucial new weapon in counterinsurgency operations here: a demure civilian anthropologist named Tracy.

Tracy, who asked that her surname not be used for security reasons, is a member of the first-ever Human Terrain Team, an experimental Pentagon program that assigns anthropologists and other social scientists to American combat units in Afghanistan and Iraq, where they act as cultural advisers and suggest ways to win local support without using military force.

Colonel Martin Schweitzer, commander of the 82nd Airborne Division unit working with anthropologists here, said the unit's combat operations had been reduced by 60 percent since the anthropologists arrived this spring. He said the focus had shifted from combat to improving security, health care and education for the population.

"We're looking at this from a human perspective, from a social scientist's perspective," he said. "We're not focused on the enemy. We're focused on bringing governance down to the people."

Last month, Defense Secretary Robert Gates authorized a $40 million expansion of the program, which will assign teams of anthropologists and social scientists to each of the 26 American combat brigades in Iraq and Afghanistan. As a result, military officials are scrambling to find more scholars willing to deploy to the front lines to interpret tribal structures and explain cultural differences. MORE

Canada calls for special UN envoy to Afghanistan

After 30 bilateral meetings last week on the subject, Canada's foreign minister today addressed the United Nations General Assembly and called for the appointment of a "special UN envoy to Afghanistan." Not clear exactly how this post would differ from the SRSG. According to reports, would be "modeled on the work of former British prime minister Tony Blair in the Middle East peace process."

Canada issues Afghan rally cry, (Globe and Mail Update) by Tenille Bonoguore, Oct 2, 2007:Foreign Affairs Minister Maxime Bernier issued a rallying cry Tuesday to the United Nations, calling on member nations to support the bid to appoint a special UN envoy for Afghanistan…

Latest Kajaki Dam cost estimates

The latest USAID estimate for the Kajaki Dam appears in today's International Water Power: $150m for the first year, and up to $500m total. Actual cost will probably be much higher -- and still worth every penny.

Progress on the dam is the bellwether of efforts in Helmand: restoring hydroelectric power would have massive symbolic and pragmatic consequences (not to mention create 4,000 jobs...) So it's a huge reconstruction priority--but one which requires sustained security to implement...

• Upgrade planned for Afghan dam International Water Power, UK 09/26/2007.

By the Numbers

Some interesting (and encouraging) figures from Ann Marlowe's Wall Street Journal commentary last month:

• Afghan mobile phone subscribers, September 2006:    2 million
• Current subscribers:                                                 3 million
• Approximate percent of Afghans this comprises:       10%
• Percent of Nangarhar residents with a mobile phone: 31%
• Percent of Laghman residents with a mobile phone:    77%

• Approximate population of Khost province:            1,000,000
• Estimated people from Khost living overseas:           200,000
• Annual remittances sent back to Khost :                   $6-12 million
• USAID spending in Khost, 2002-2006:                        $10 million

Source: Ann Marlowe, On the Road to Jalalabad

Afghanistan's "land mafia"

A 200 word piece today by the BBC highlights an important trend and leaves us wanting more details. The emergence of the so-called "land mafia" (a term that probably makes it sound more centrally organized than it us...) has broad repercussions, especially since Afghanistan lacks enforceable, consistent land rights. Multiple land registries allow well-connected strongmen to stake claims with impunity, and the lack of a functioning legal system leaves victims with no recourse.

The lack of security vis a vis land and property rights remains one of the major impediments to investment in Afghanistan. This briefly received some attention in 2003 when refugees streamed home -- only to find someone else there. It's still a big issue today, but the last serious work I've seen on this is the AREU's 2003 report ( Land Rights in Crisis). Sounds to me like a prize-winning expose just waiting for the right journalist...

Powerful 'grab Afghanistan land' By Stephanie Irvine (BBC)  Sept 6: The Afghan urban development minister says land is being appropriated illegally by powerful individuals at a rate of two sq km (0.8 sq miles) a day. Former military commanders, members of parliament and senior officials are seizing land and then selling it on illegally, says Yousaf Pashthun.

Image: Urban Development Minister Mohammad Yousaf Pashthun. BBC.

"Bridge of friendship" opens

On Sunday the widest connection between Tajikistan and Afghanistan opened. The bridge, under construction since 2005, is 700 meters long and can handle a capacity of up to 1,000 vehicles a day (formerly, crossings required a barge that could only transport 60 cars per day and was unusable for part of the year). Construction was managed by the US Army Corps of Engineers and the total cost of $37 million was mostly financed by the US. The customs post is scheduled to open later this year.

Road Bridge Opens: IZHNY PYANJ, Tajikistan; Aug 26 (RFE/RL) -- The presidents of Afghanistan and Tajikistan inaugurated today a new bridge linking the two countries. Tajikistan's Emomali Rahmon and Afghanistan's Hamid Karzai said the new structure over the Pyanj River, which was financed by the United States, will strengthen trade in the region. The 700-meter structure straddles the Pyanj River between the ports of Nizhny Pyanj on the Tajik side and Shir Khan Bandar in Afghanistan.

The Tajik head of state, Emomali Rahmon, told those gathered for the ceremony in Nizhny Pyanj that the "bridge of friendship" will first of all "strengthen the old and vital relations of two countries and two peoples." But he also expressed concern that Tajik and Afghan authorities need to prevent the bridge from facilitating "all kinds of inadmissible activities, such as human, drug, and weapons trafficking." MORE

Image: The new bridge connecting Tajikistan and Afghanistan(RFE/RL)

 

Bridging the expectations gap

In an op-ed this week, George Davendorf and Brian Grzelkowski -- part of a recent Mercy Corps delegation to Afghanistan -- argue that "the most serious threat to the fledgling Afghan state may be lurking in an unexpected place; not in the strife-ridden streets of Kandahar or the flourishing poppy fields of the countryside, but in the unfulfilled aspirations of average Afghan citizens."

To the Afghan government and donors, Davendorf and Grzelkowski make two specific recommendations that would make a big difference:

1. "Expedite the provision of reconstruction and development assistance at the local level by adopting both a top-down and bottom-up approach...(and) finding ways to inject additional resources at the provincial and district levels where they can quickly benefit average Afghans."
2. "Develop a credible, effective communications strategy to better guide and manage public expectations...to rebuild public confidence in the nation-building effort now underway."

Read the full op-ed below...

Comments on the South Korean hostage situation

The following are comments I made to a South Korean reporter covering the hostage crisis. If you have additional insights for him -- or corrections for me -- drop me an email and I will pass them along.

1. What is the security situation in Afghanistan as a whole?

It very much depends on the region. Several provinces in the south and southeast (e.g. Helmand, Kandahar, Zabol, Ghazni) are quite dangerous and have become more so. But in the rest of the country, especially in the north and the west and in major cities such as Kabul, is fairly safe. Afghans and foreigners living and working there must take precautions, but are not at risk in the same way that aid workers in Kandahar would be.

After incidents like these, the international community must reconsider where and how it operates. The OECD has estimated that fully half of all development assistance has been spent in four of the most dangerous provinces in the south. It is extremely difficult and expensive to do development work in this environment. A decision was made to concentrate development work in these contentious areas in order to “win hearts and minds,” but it’s not clear that this approach is working. On the other hand, there are many stable regions in Afghanistan that are languishing from a lack of attention. So a wiser approach, especially in light of these recent kidnappings, is to pick some of the low-hanging fruit that is currently rotting on the vine. MORE

Afghanistan qualifies for debt relief under HIPCI

The World Bank and IMF have announced that Afghanistan has made sufficient reforms to now qualify for debt relief under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative. The country will now have its public and private debt payments (on $12b in total debt) cut in half.

To qualify, Afghanistan had to meet several criteria: "face an unsustainable debt burden, beyond traditionally available debt-relief mechanisms"; "establish a track record of reform and sound policies through IMF- and IDA-supported programs"; and "have developed a Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) through a broad-based participatory process." MORE DETAILS ON HIPCI

Rule of law conference nets $360 m in new money

Last week's Rome conference on the rule of law was largely overshadowed by discussions of civilian casualties, but it resulted in some good news: a major boost to the beleaguered sector. Overall, donors pledged $360 m in new funds (over four or five years...) for training judges, building prisons and courtrooms, etc.

The new funds are on top of the $50m already designated for legal sector reform (but I've seen no indication as to whether donors may be reprogramming the new funds from other funding areas...) As of last week, officials would not break down the contributions by country, but this week the US announced its pledge of $15 m. Before the conference the European Union announced that it was readying ~$270 m in pledges, so that's where the bulk of funding is coming from. Please drop a comment if you have more details on what happened in Rome and who has pledged what...

Tom Perriello: Two Views from Qandahar

Qandahar is a lot to take in on a short trip. I had forgotten how much cleaner and wider the streets are than in Kabul. And that the city comes to life in the evening for those two magical hours before the onset of darkness. New development is visible everywhere and statistically trends are headed up from 8 months ago inside the city.

Yet the mood is grim. People talk about corruption that stretches from petty police bribes to drug dealing at the highest levels of provincial Government. While people remain solidly anti-insurgency, a deep fissure has appeared here between the people and government that was a mere crack in 2005.

The logical link between enabling corrupt warlords and undermining our own counter-insurgency efforts is crucial to understand. A corrupt government does not make people pro-insurgency. It simply means people no longer have a dog in the fight. Between a corrupt government (who demand payoffs) or the Taliban and other anti-government forces (who offer handouts), you follow the path of least resistance and try to stay out of the way. MORE

Wheat Production Doubles in Kunduz

Pajhwok reports this morning that wheat has doubled in Kunduz, gains attributable to increased yield (there were approximately the same numbers of acres under cultivation.) People sometimes deride alternative livelihoods as impossible, since "no crop can compete with poppy". In fact, the picture is more complicated. It's true that on marginal, low yield land, there are few alternatives to poppy, and few opportunity costs to growing it (see this excellent report by AREU). However, on productive land a combination of incentives and eradication policies can influence farmer choices. Higher productivity seeds and agricultural practice can help swing the balance away from poppy, and there are signs this is happening in Kunduz and in several other provinces that have seen declines opium cultivation.

Wheat Production doubles in Kunduz
KUNDUZ CITY, June 21 Asia Pulse - Wheat production in the northern Afghan province of Kunduz has doubled as many farmers have stopped growing poppies under the alternative livelihood program this year. The yield reached 111,000 tons this year as compared to 66,000 tons in last year, noted Abdul Aziz Nekzad, director of the agriculture and irrigation department....Mentioning the reason behind the ample harvest, the official said plenty of irrigation water, the counter-narcotics campaign and the provision of improved seeds has helped boost wheat production in the province. MORE

Image:                     An Afghan farmer selects a wheat variety at a research station (CIMMYT Maize and Wheat Improvement Center).

Independent study shows strong gains in Afghan health

The World Bank announced today that the preliminary findings of a Johns Hopkins University (JHU) household survey suggests that infant mortality rates dropped from 165 per 1,000 live births in 2001 to 135 per 1,000 live births in 2006 -- meaning that 40,000 fewer infants are dying each year now compared to when the Taliban were in power.

That's a lot of lives saved. And the number is significantly higher, since health care for adults has improved markedly as well. A parallel study assessing Afghanistan's health facilities, and observed a "25 percent improvement in overall quality of health services since  2004." The Hopkins assessment "surveyed more than 600 health facilities each year since 2004 and used a Balance Score Card (BSC) to measure different aspects  of quality of services (and) found improvements in virtually all aspects of care in almost every province."

Access to care also improved substantially: in its survey of 8,000+ households nationwide, Hopkins found that "the proportion of women receiving antenatal care increased from 5 percent in 2003 to 30 percent in  2006" and "the proportion  of pregnant women who received attendance by a skilled health worker increased 5 percent to nearly 19 percent." MORE

Oportunidades in Afghanistan?

Human Rights Watch and other organizations have documented how various problems -- security, poverty, and negative attitudes about education -- have undermined progress in ensuring education for Afghanistan's children.  School infrastructure has received a lot of attention but enrollment rates have plateaued -- especially among girls.

This story in today's NY Times suggested that Mexico has managed to simultaneously raise enrollment rates, reduce poverty, and improve health. The program provides cash payments to women on a contingent basis: "If the women and their children have kept all their medical appointments, and if their children have stayed in school, the money is theirs to use as they wish":

The program pays cash stipends mostly to mothers — about 97 percent of recipients are women — on the assumption that they will be more likely to spend the money on their children. To qualify, people must be in extreme poverty, roughly defined by officials here as living on less than the equivalent of $2 a day.

The article notes that "Since this program got its start in rural Mexico in 1997, it has been heralded by the World Bank and others as a powerful model for fighting chronic poverty." In a decade, Mexico's poverty rate has dropped by 17 percentage points. Over thirty countries have adopted versions of the program. Should Afghanistan become one of them?

Dutch defend approach

Several readers took me to task for coming down too easy on the Dutch in my previous post. One Dutch reader who was recently in Uruzgan said "I’ve spent a lot of time traveling in these areas, and devoted quite a bit of effort to finding out exactly what the Dutch were up...I can find very little to praise in the attitude that the Dutch are taking...The terrain in Uruzgan is such that they have the luxury of avoiding the larger-scale clashes that are tying the Brits down in Helmand, but this doesn’t give them the right to preach in the way that they have been doing."

Rest assured, I don't (yet) endorse the Dutch model, but I do think it is a long-term strategy and must be evaluated on its own time-frame (In citing Musa Qala I was trying to illustrate that whether something  worked or not often depends on your time-frame.) MORE

Amb. Zahir Tanin at NYU

Last night I saw Zahir Tanin, Afghanistan's new Permanent Representative to the United Nations, speak at New York University (in conversation with scholar and journalist Alon Ben-Meir.)

Ambassador Tanin is clearly a learned man, but his comments were mostly pro-forma until the Q&A. But then things got interesting...MORE

All the news that fits: 3 opeds from the NY Times

Three excellent op-eds in the Times today on Afghanistan and the region:

• Pakistani novelist Mohsin Hamid writes about his frustration as a liberal who supported Musharraf five years ago. "An exaggerated fear of Pakistan's people," he writes, must not prevent Americans from acknowledging that Musharraf is losing support: "Pakistan has grown increasingly divided between the relatively urban and prosperous regions that border India and the relatively rural, conservative and violent regions that border Afghanistan. The two mainstream political parties have historically bridged that divide and vastly outperformed religious extremists in free elections, but under General Musharraf they have been marginalized..." Musharraf has done some good, he says, but his time has come...

• Nicholas Kristof writes about Kiva, a site that allows ordinary people to make direct loans overseas. He was in Afghanistan this week checking up on his two loans (of $25 each) to a baker and a TV repairman in Kabul. Kiva loans are administered directly by local partners and with little overhead (Kristof's New York to Kabul flight represents an older model of administering aid...) Kiva is a terrific mechanism--and hopefully Kristof's article will bring them some attention from the mainstream.
  
  • For more details, see www.Kiva.org.

• Rory Stewart stays on message: humility, humility, humility.  Actions justified on moral grounds is nonsensical if they cannot be acheived; "we have no moral obligation to do what we cannot do." Stewart does no service by conflating US policies in Iraq and Afghanistan for rhetorical reasons, but he has some sober and sage advice:

"We will have to focus on projects that Iraqis and Afghans demand; prioritize and set aside moral perfectionism; work with people of whom we don’t approve; and choose among lesser evils. We will have to be patient. We should aim to stop illegal opium growth and change the way that Iraqis or Afghans treat their women. But we will not achieve this in the next three years. We may never be able to build a democratic state in Iraq or southern Afghanistan. Trying to do so through a presence based on foreign troops creates insurgency and resentment and can only end in failure."

Update: the battle for Kajaki dam

How is Operation Achilles going? Joe Friesen answers one facet of that question by looking at one of the operation's goals: to secure Kajaki dam and create a "safe zone" that would permit repair.

The dam currently supplies 380,000 people with sporadic power; if refurbished it could provide 2,000,000 with steady power, not to mention irrigation and employment. It would serve as a symbol of what the government can deliver that the Taliban cannot.

Friesen reports, however, that despite military progress by NATO forces "the Sangin valley south of the dam remains a hotbed of Taliban activity. Until it is secured, construction on a road leading from the highway to the dam cannot begin." Things will take a while to sort themselves out.

Of course, even if Kajaki dam is secured, the region will not be home free. Transmission lines will need to be upgraded as well, and insurgents could still blow up power lines and transformers to turn out the lights. Friesan notes this would risk alienating the population, but this hasn't stopped similar tactics in Iraq.

The fight to win Kajaki dam KANDAHAR, March 24, by Joe Friesen:...  The alliance says British forces have won the high ground in the area, giving them a significant strategic advantage. They have been clearing Taliban positions, blowing up arms caches and slowly gaining ground. Coalition forces have also encircled most of northern Helmand, with Canadians from the Royal Canadian Regiment on the eastern edge of that movement. But the Sangin valley south of the dam remains a hotbed of Taliban activity. Until it is secured, construction on a road leading from the highway to the dam cannot begin, and without a safe road it's impossible to supply the operation. MORE

Photo: DOD: Paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division patrol the Ghorak Valley of Helmand Province in southern Afghanistan during Operation Achilles, March 6.

Should we end the counterinsurgency and refocus?

Getting a lot of buzz is Rory Stewart's guest column in the NY Times, in which he concludes that the West has bit off more than it can chew and that "the original strategy of limiting our role was correct."

It's a thoughtful piece, and Stewart writes well; however, his own policy prescriptions are no more coherent than the muddled thinking he dissects. MORE

Growth in legal economy outpaces growth of opium

The IMF has estimated that agricultural gains will allow the Afghan economy to grow by a robust 16%  this year. That's well above the previously estimated 12% growth, and even higher than last year's 14% growth.

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher told Congress yesterday that "What we've seen in Afghanistan is the regular economy has been growing a lot faster than the economy of opium production." Some of the figures cited in the Bloomberg story (e.g. that "now accounts for about a third of the economy, compared with more than 60 percent five years ago") are suspect; it's easy to get these figures wrong because people often cite the opium trade as a percentage of different things (for example total economic activity vs. legal GDP.) I plan to dig into these numbers more the coming days, but even if the trend is exaggerated it would be an encouraging development (even amidst the latest data that the opium economy continues to expand). As Boucher qualified, narcotics is still the biggest business in town, and it will be a challenge "to get Afghanistan to the point where it can develop an economy, it can develop a country without the corrosive and corrupting influence of the drug trade."

Afghan Economy to Quicken, IMF Says, Reducing Opium Dependence
By Michael Dwyer, March 9 (Bloomberg) -- Afghanistan's economic growth will accelerate over the next two years, according to the International Monetary Fund, with increased production of wheat and fruit helping reduce the economy's opium dependence.

"Growth is expected to accelerate in 2006-07, with even stronger growth likely in 2007-08 owing to a rebound in the agricultural sector,'' Murilo Portugal, IMF deputy managing director, said in a statement on the Washington-based lender's Web site. The pace of expansion had previously been expected to slow to 12 percent this fiscal year from 14 percent in 2005-06.

Biden, Boucher, Jones and Dobbins

Today the Senate Foreign Relations Committee held Hearings on Afghanistan entitled "Time for a New Strategy?"  Witnesses included Richard Boucher (Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia), Gen. James Jones (U.S. Marine Corps, fmr commander of NATO, Retired) and Amb. James Dobbins (RAND, fmr Special Envoy for Afghanistan). I'll have their comments shortly; in the meantime, here is Senator Joseph R. Biden's opening statement:

BIDEN:  Today we face an issue “at the very heart of our war on terror: the deteriorating security conditions in Afghanistan.  If current trends continue, we may soon find that our hard-won success on the battlefield has melted away.”

I didn’t write these words in preparation for this morning’s hearing. I spoke them nearly five years ago, on the floor of the United States Senate. [May 17, 2002] MORE 

Jawad: Frustration that political participation has not led to results

From Afghanistan's ambassador to the United States, Said T. Jawad, in a CFR interview today:

"From the entire financial assistance that's been given to Afghanistan, only 5 percent has been given to the Afghan government. Twelve percent of the funds have been given to the Afghan reconstruction trust fund established for Afghanistan. And we can withdraw money under certain conditions. The remaining 82 or 83 percent of the assistance has been spent outside the budget and control of the Afghan government. MORE

Photo: CFR