Project on Afghanistan in its Regional and Multilateral Dimensions

The Century Foundation continues to look at Afghanistan with an initiative examining ways in which the international community may effectively take greater collective responsibility for assisting Afghanistan’s transition from a war-ridden failed state.

Please join us at www.tcf.org's Project on Afghanistan in its Regional Multilateral Dimensions project.

Fighting hunger in Afghanistan

Rick Corsino, Country Director of the World Food Programme in Afghanistan, argues today in the National Post that citizens and the media tend to overlook humanitarian work in Afghanistan.  "Most journalists," he notes "are more interested in going on 'embeds' with military forces than hanging out with -- superficially at least -- the less fascinating humanitarians. If journalists were to embed with the World Food Programme in Afghanistan, they would find another, less dramatic Afghan war -- the war on hunger -- and the large and innovative international effort that is fighting it."

Afghanistan Watch is guilty of this "security bias," as are the various media outlets. I know we'd like to feature more stories and analysis on humanitarian and development work, but it tends to be harder to learn of new developments in these fields. If you see some good pieces, or have ideas for what you'd like to see, please send them along...

Fighting Afghanistan's other war  by Rick Corsino: I was recently in Kandahar City, where the news bulletins will tell you the heart of the Afghan insurgency lies. Certainly, security is a major issue, but I was most struck by the literacy projects I visited, where I spent time with some of the poorest women in Afghanistan -- and that means the poorest in the world. MORE

A look inside the Asia Foundation survey

The Asia Foundation released it's third survey of the Afghan people today. Polling in Afghanistan should by no means be seen as dispositive, but this data can provide insights unavailable elsewhere (especially compared with prior baseline surveys by the Asia Foundation in 2004 and 2006). Here's a look inside...

Predictably, media reports framed the poll as a referendum on security (see AFP: “Security fears up sharply among Afghans: survey”) It’s true that pessimism about security rose among Afghans--with 32 percent citing security as their top concern (up from 22 percent last year.)

But the picture is more complicated, since security concerns vary significantly by region and two thirds of Afghans felt that security in their area was good. Moreover, among those who believe the country is headed in the right direction, good security is cited as the second most important reason (34%) after development.

So the Survey paints a nuanced picture and provides some fascinating data on everything from support for traditional institutions (such as Shuras and Jirga) to democracy and women’s rights. A few trends worth noting:

Right Direction / Wrong Direction:

• People are still optimistic, even if there was a slight decline in those who said the country was headed in the right direction (from 44 percent to 42 percent).
• Three-quarters of Afghans continue to assess government performance positively (i.e. either strongly (25%) or somewhat strongly (55%).)
• Afghans continue to espouse confidence in national security forces (both army and police) as well as in traditional institutions such as Shuras and Jirgas. However, “less than half of the respondents had confidence in the government's justice system, political parties and local militias.”
•  Corruption is an issue for many Afghans, but it is not clear that it has grown more acute. Some poll questions suggest an increase in perceptions of corruption while others suggest a decrease.
  

Security:

• Among people who felt the country was going in the wrong direction, security was cited as the top reason. This may seem unsurprising, until you realize that even in last year’s survey security was only rarely mentioned as a reason for a “wrong direction” response.
• On the other hand, among those who said the country was going in the right direction, good security was cited as the second biggest reason (34%).
• Perceptions of security varied greatly by region. Nationwide, “sixty-six percent of the respondents felt that security in their area was good or quite good, and 50 percent said they rarely or never feared for their own or their family's safety. Eighty-two percent said no one in their family had been a victim of any crime or violence during the last one year.” 

Reconstruction:

• Last year, respondents cited “rebuilding of the country” as only the fourth most important reason why the country was headed in the right direction; this year it became the most important reason for believing so (39%). It’s not clear whether people feel reconstruction is going better, or that the other trends they cited as reasons for optimism last year (security, peace, disarmament) are simply going worse. MORE
  

Triumph of the Tube...

"With democracy comes television. It's hard for some people to get used to."  - Saad Mohseni, founder of Tolo TV

Indeed, one study shows that two-thirds of Afghans living in the five most urban provinces watch TV every day or almost every day. The NY Times today shines the spotlight on what is, for most Afghans, as big a cultural change as any... 

A massive phenomenon in Afghanistan: Television. By Barry Bearak (IHT/NYT July 31):...Since the fall of the Taliban in late 2001, Afghanistan has been developing in fits and starts. Among the unchanging circumstances that still give people fits: continuing war, inept leaders, corrupt police and woeful living conditions...But television is off to a phenomenal start, with Afghans now engrossed -- for better or worse --  in much of the same escapist fare that seduces the rest of the world: soap operas that pit the unbearably conniving against the implausibly virtuous; chefs preparing meals that most people would never eat in kitchens they could never afford; talk show hosts wheedling secrets from those too shameless to keep their troubles to themselves. MORE

USIP event on civil society

USIP has posted a report from their June 21 panel on civil society in Afghanistan, which featured George Devendorf (director of Public Affairs for Mercy Corps), Tilly Reed (chief of party in Afghanistan for Counterpart International) and Scott Worden (USIP program officer with Rule of Law). The summary is available here.

Grounds for hope--Coleman and Charney cite progress in women's rights

  Amidst the prevailing winds of pessimism it is good to have a reminder of how much ground Afghanistan's women have gained, both in legal rights and in societal acceptance of those rights. The polling data is truly striking--80% accept women in parliament, 70% in the workforce; 88% support education for girls. This data has held robust in survey after survey (in the piece below, Charney references data which is consistent with his first survey in 2004.)

Two caveats: first, these favorable views do not appear to be strongly held, and second, among influential elites the picture is quite different. Nevertheless, as Coleman and Charney remind us, "applying unrealistic yardsticks to Afghanistan leaves us unable to see important changes taking place there."

There are grounds for hope in Afghanistan. June 18, 2007, (Globe and Mail) by CRAIG CHARNEY AND ISOBEL COLEMAN: As the Taliban and NATO spring offensives grind on, many people's perceptions of Afghanistan are pessimistic. Some say our Western efforts have changed nothing, so we will fail: The ongoing abuses against women, corruption, and warlordism are opening the door to the Taliban. Others say unless we change nothing, we will fail: Steps towards gender equality and democracy are disturbing a male-dominated, ultra-conservative society and reviving Taliban support.

These perspectives miss the real grounds for hope in Afghanistan: Afghans themselves are changing their society, with Afghan women playing a leading role. Despite the Taliban's military revival, Afghan women have won broad support for their rights to study, work, and vote, largely gained since the Taliban's 2001 ouster, and overwhelmingly reject their former oppressors. But, at the same time, Afghans are struggling to reconcile many of their Islamic traditions with the modern world, as the case of women also shows.

Photo Source: DefenseLINK: An Afghan woman of the Pashtun tribe in Kabul, Afghanistan. Photo by Senior Airman Bethann Hunt, USAF.

Independent study shows strong gains in Afghan health

The World Bank announced today that the preliminary findings of a Johns Hopkins University (JHU) household survey suggests that infant mortality rates dropped from 165 per 1,000 live births in 2001 to 135 per 1,000 live births in 2006 -- meaning that 40,000 fewer infants are dying each year now compared to when the Taliban were in power.

That's a lot of lives saved. And the number is significantly higher, since health care for adults has improved markedly as well. A parallel study assessing Afghanistan's health facilities, and observed a "25 percent improvement in overall quality of health services since  2004." The Hopkins assessment "surveyed more than 600 health facilities each year since 2004 and used a Balance Score Card (BSC) to measure different aspects  of quality of services (and) found improvements in virtually all aspects of care in almost every province."

Access to care also improved substantially: in its survey of 8,000+ households nationwide, Hopkins found that "the proportion of women receiving antenatal care increased from 5 percent in 2003 to 30 percent in  2006" and "the proportion  of pregnant women who received attendance by a skilled health worker increased 5 percent to nearly 19 percent." MORE

Oportunidades in Afghanistan?

Human Rights Watch and other organizations have documented how various problems -- security, poverty, and negative attitudes about education -- have undermined progress in ensuring education for Afghanistan's children.  School infrastructure has received a lot of attention but enrollment rates have plateaued -- especially among girls.

This story in today's NY Times suggested that Mexico has managed to simultaneously raise enrollment rates, reduce poverty, and improve health. The program provides cash payments to women on a contingent basis: "If the women and their children have kept all their medical appointments, and if their children have stayed in school, the money is theirs to use as they wish":

The program pays cash stipends mostly to mothers — about 97 percent of recipients are women — on the assumption that they will be more likely to spend the money on their children. To qualify, people must be in extreme poverty, roughly defined by officials here as living on less than the equivalent of $2 a day.

The article notes that "Since this program got its start in rural Mexico in 1997, it has been heralded by the World Bank and others as a powerful model for fighting chronic poverty." In a decade, Mexico's poverty rate has dropped by 17 percentage points. Over thirty countries have adopted versions of the program. Should Afghanistan become one of them?

All the news that fits: 3 opeds from the NY Times

Three excellent op-eds in the Times today on Afghanistan and the region:

• Pakistani novelist Mohsin Hamid writes about his frustration as a liberal who supported Musharraf five years ago. "An exaggerated fear of Pakistan's people," he writes, must not prevent Americans from acknowledging that Musharraf is losing support: "Pakistan has grown increasingly divided between the relatively urban and prosperous regions that border India and the relatively rural, conservative and violent regions that border Afghanistan. The two mainstream political parties have historically bridged that divide and vastly outperformed religious extremists in free elections, but under General Musharraf they have been marginalized..." Musharraf has done some good, he says, but his time has come...

• Nicholas Kristof writes about Kiva, a site that allows ordinary people to make direct loans overseas. He was in Afghanistan this week checking up on his two loans (of $25 each) to a baker and a TV repairman in Kabul. Kiva loans are administered directly by local partners and with little overhead (Kristof's New York to Kabul flight represents an older model of administering aid...) Kiva is a terrific mechanism--and hopefully Kristof's article will bring them some attention from the mainstream.
  
  • For more details, see www.Kiva.org.

• Rory Stewart stays on message: humility, humility, humility.  Actions justified on moral grounds is nonsensical if they cannot be acheived; "we have no moral obligation to do what we cannot do." Stewart does no service by conflating US policies in Iraq and Afghanistan for rhetorical reasons, but he has some sober and sage advice:

"We will have to focus on projects that Iraqis and Afghans demand; prioritize and set aside moral perfectionism; work with people of whom we don’t approve; and choose among lesser evils. We will have to be patient. We should aim to stop illegal opium growth and change the way that Iraqis or Afghans treat their women. But we will not achieve this in the next three years. We may never be able to build a democratic state in Iraq or southern Afghanistan. Trying to do so through a presence based on foreign troops creates insurgency and resentment and can only end in failure."

New AfghanMark label certifies fair conditions

“This is a major humanitarian, educational and business development breakthrough by Afghan women for Afghan women in the post-Taliban era of our country’s history.”

  - Ms. Halima Kazem of The Afghan Women’s Business Federation, speaking on the inauguration of the AfghanMarkSM label, which certifies “fair trade” carpets.

For more details on the AfghanMark label, check out this news article, this website, and this press release.

Left: Afghan weavers at a certified studio. Below: An Afghan business woman with her child in a retail carpet market, Kabul.